Interesting ads, thanks for posting this.

I want to touch on Bidens ad first. I think this is great. Not to win the election, not to fight Trump, but to fight the current crisis that is ongoing. He abstains from attacking Trump, but gives out sensible tips how to act and assures that the crisis can be fought together. That is actually very positive and I have to laud the Biden campaign for this. Will this help him win the election? I am not sure. But this shows real leadership, putting the differences aside for the moment to act against the crisis. This is very good!

Now for the Lincoln project ads. They could've an effect. But not so much by effectively attacking Trump (although they do that very well), but mostly because they are Republicans. If they can sway Republicans to not vote for Trump, this might have an effect.

But I am not convinced this actually will happen. Basically because people already have strong opinions in favor or against Trump. It is unlikely this will move much. Also Trump is very good in negative campaigning. In 2016 he did not much to promote himself, but a lot to attack Clinton. Clinton did a similar strategy, attacking Trump. And I think this was one of the blunders of her campaign back then. In attacking Trump you will not move the one on his side much, on the contrary: with attacking him you reinforce the image of the establishment fighting the outsider, an image Trump uses. Research also shows, that messaging about Biden has more effect on voters than messaging about Trump, as their opinion about Trump is mostly fixed: https://osf.io/m7326/

Also I am distrustful of the people behind the Lincoln project. Aren't they mostly military hawks, that dislike Trumps inactivity towards foreign military intervention?

The effectiveness of the various ads can be at least partially gathered statistically in the number of views, and in the up-vote ratios, of these respective ads.

-The happy Joe Biden ad I saw last night, called Tough, has been running since July 15th. In that time, it has viewed 251,000 times on YouTube and 73.6% of responses has been positive.

-The anti-Trump ad run by the Biden campaign that Moren highlighted, called I Alone, has already 221,000 times despite being just two days old (so it's proving a lot more effective at getting public attention), but enjoys a similar level of actual popularity among those who have seen it so far: 71.2% of responses have been positive.

-The Lincoln Project's latest version of the Mourning in America ad, by contrast (they update the death count therein regularly), has been viewed 508,000 times in the three days since it was released and 99% of responses have been positive. The original version of the same ad, which was posted back in May, has been more than 3.4 million times so far. Mourning in America is the single most effective ad of this campaign so far by anyone.

"Why?", you may ask. Because the reality of the matter is that this election, like almost any election where a sitting president is on the ballot, is functionally a referendum on the sitting president, NOT his opponent. Joe Biden would do better not to try and make this election a referendum on himself because he's not actually running on very much. He's basically just a throwback to the previous status quo. There's not a lot that's inspiring there. (There's a reason why I favored someone else in the primaries.) This is a painful moment in the history of this nation. The most effective thing is to capture and direct that pain and anger against the actual, obvious source thereof and the Lincoln Project is much better at doing that than the Biden folks are because they actually understand how Republican voters think...being actual Republicans themselves.

One should also pay attention to these people just in general. The Lincoln Project is helping Biden and the Democrats this year, but they probably won't be this same time next year ahead of the 2021 off-year elections or the 2022 midterms. If Trump is indeed defeated this year, these folks won't just be back in the Republican fold thereafter, but with more leverage than before because they will have proven 1) their willingness to abandon their party's candidates, and 2) that the GOP cannot do without them. These people will have much greater ability to re-shape the Republican Party back in their image in a post-Trump 2021/2. They'll likely be the main force that drives any subsequent Republican comeback. So their high level of effectiveness in campaigning is worth paying attention to now even just for that reason alone. They'll be formidable opponents in a post-Trump future.

I disagree about the viewers of the video. Presidential elections have become very partisan affairs. So a lot of voters are predetermined in their choice and will not be swayed. If these people make up the viewership, that the views are meaningless, as they don't change the outcome one bit. If the viewers on the other hand are undecided people, this might be different. But we have no way to tell.

You are right, that an election featuring an incumbent are partly a referendum on the presidency so far. But again, I think many have made up their mind already what to think of the Trump-presidency.

And you might be right, that the Lincoln project people might gain influence if Trump is defeated. Which isn't particularly good, because as I wrote before their actual political stances are worrying too.

I think the thing is that people only remember the result, not the polling. If it had been, say, 51% Hillary and 45% Trump instead, off by 2.5 points in her favor, no one would have batted an eye.

Now a lot of people are either traumatized by 2016, or hopeful for another upset, so they will take any piece of evidence or argument in favor of this happening even when they are false (such as "hidden votes").

@Hax People are definitely very results oriented. But, I wouldn't say hidden votes are necessarily false. I think for instance turnout was much higher than anticipated among lower income white people, which impacted the polling. The impact is just greatly exaggerated. 

I definitely fall into the scarred by 2016 category. Honestly, if the polls showed Biden up by 15% I probably still wouldn't feel comfortable, even though logically it should be. I also think the impact of the virus on voting complicates things. I think fivethirtyeight's model accounts for it, and that's why it puts Biden's chances at about 10-20% less than places like the Economist which I don't believe account for that.

Just gonna leave this here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kmXpMhZqOg

*shrugs* I give you stats, you give me hunches.

As to the Lincoln Project's future in a post-Trump America, I'll fight that battle when it comes and take notes for now. Right now, I'm in an "enemy of my enemy is my friend" kind of mood because my first, second, and third political priorities right now are all the defeat of this president. Trump is the worst president of my lifetime by a wide margin. I'm not nearly as worried about another war as I am about covid-19 right now because in just five months the latter has already claimed more American lives than most of our wars (and we've fought a lot) have combined. I'm also more concerned about our current relationship to foreign police states and whether we're still fundamentally aligned with the forces of democracy in international affairs than I am about imperialistic excesses that may be had in the name of advancing democracy abroad. In short, my concerns are very basic ones right now. More basic than my disagreements with the Reaganists (which yes, are many).

I actually have my doubts they'll be welcomed to the GOP with open arms. I don't know if the party will cut Trumpism right away, and even if they do, Lincoln Project waged war on everyone. From Collins to Gardner to McSally to Rubio, I feel they have burned most bridges.

Tom Cotton is one of the most dangerous people in the US. It's all the cruelty and hate from Trump, but laser focused. A very despicable and sickening man.
It's no coincidence he spoke today, as a presumed "rising star". If anything, this is where the GOP is likely heading in 2024.

Trump advocated for the conviction of the Central Park 5, black men who were falsely accused of rape and imprisoned. After taking a leading role in pushing for their incarceration, he continued to insist they were guilty, despite DNA evidence exonerating them.

While he was president, his company was twice sued for avoiding renting to black people, settling both times. 

He referred to those marching in Nazi and KKK uniforms as very fine people. 

He has personally spread anti-black propoganda.

But, Biden said if you didn't vote for him, "you ain't black". Clearly, much worse.