Too early to tell with different testing methods. Italy sits at 5%, Germany at 0.1%. Many undetected cases in Italy, a lot of early detected cases in Germany that can still develop into a more serious infection. There are still plenty places with active cases and no deaths yet. All we can do for now is see what the experts say:

In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” ^[13]

Initial estimate was 2%

Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 ^[1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that this was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed. Surveillance was increasing, within China but also globally, but at the time it was said that:

Of course for the Flu, how many get infected is also just an estimate. Many more can have very mild flu symptoms and not even know they caught the bug. In the end, the level of care that is needed to keep the death rate low is what's the most worrying atm. The serious / critical rate is just as important.

Anyway so far, knock on wood, less new cases today than yesterday. It doesn't mean anything, it goes up and down all the time, but any trend needs to start somewhere. Get that growth factor under 1.0

It's over 7000 cases, actually.

It's not only the cases but all the people who get tested, who go to the hospital for nothing because they are scared now and so on...that all costs a lot of time. 

Last report said 3,218 are hospitalized of which 567 in ICU, that has likely gone up again today. But it doesn't surprise me that can bring the hospital system on its knees. In a regular flu season patients are in beds in the hallways for lack of space, and wait times in the ER can exceed 8 hours. They have real time info on the web so you can plan your visit to the ER.... It's actually low right now (avg 35 minutes), perhaps due to the system being on high alert while there are still very few cases in Canada, or maybe people rather stay home than go sit in the waiting room :/

Hospitals are always near full capacity, they want to discharge you asap and push you into home care. (Much better anyway, lower risk of new infections) Generally understaffed, overworked, we have no buffer :(

Human nature. It won't happen to me, it won't be so bad, we're well prepared, it's all media hype, we're a first world country, the experts are on top of this, it's not as bad as the flu, the economy is more important, the other countries are just handling it wrong, etc.

We should be very grateful to all those brave people working in health care. I would be shitting bricks with this storm brewing over the horizon. There's no other way to put it than running straight into the fire. Hopefully they and their families protect themselves well enough not to get infected as well.


Latest update for Ontario, Canada:

TORONTO — This afternoon, Dr. David Williams, Chief Medical Officer of Health, confirmed another positive case of COVID-19 bringing the total number of confirmed cases in Ontario to 29. Of these, four cases in the province are all resolved, with each of those patients having two consecutive negative tests at least 24 hours apart.

A female in her 40s returned from Colorado on March 2, 2020 and presented herself to Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre's emergency department in Toronto. The hospital took all necessary precautions and followed standard operating procedures, including testing and assessment. The patient was discharged home the same day where she remains in self-isolation. Toronto Public Health is actively engaged in contact tracing and case management.

As a result of the coordinated efforts of our health care and public health system, all individuals who have tested positive have been quickly assessed and isolated.

At this time, the virus is not circulating locally. However, given the global circumstances, Ontario is actively working with city and health partners to plan for the potential of local spread. The province continues to carefully monitor this situation and encourage residents to stay informed by regularly reviewing credible information sources.

I like how they put credible information sources in there. And perhaps self isolation is better than keeping positive patients in the hospital. But still it's March 8th now, she returned March 2nd, got it in Colorado before that date. It's not easy staying on top of it while leaving the borders open.

Yep yesterday it was like 5883, and then today its 7375.
Tomorrow there will probably be another 1600 more.

If 20-25% of these people are so sick that they need to lay down in a hospital bed....
that ll soon take up alot of capacity in most hospitals in the nearby area.

It's so hard to tell. It says 16 days since the outbreak started in Italy, that's just over 2 weeks to get to where they are now. The first infected could have arrived 14 days earlier than that though, but it picked up speed fast in Italy.

It all depends on travel and what you do for a living as well as population density. Then you have spring break in the USA and March break in Canada coming up. All those people already made travel plans long ago and most won't change them. The weather is starting to warm up here, not enough to hamper the virus, but enough for people to come out of their houses and socialize...

I called my dad today, he lives in the Netherlands. He said my uncle visited him today, who told one of his co-workers had caught the virus. Was the workplace decontaminated? Of course not. Chances are low it spread, but the chance is there and the consequences immense. The netherlands had 77 new cases today, 265 total and 3 deaths so far. I hope my dad will be ok, yet as one of the most densely populated countries where most people take multiple fly vacations a year :/ At least he lives somewhere remote (For Dutch standards)

The experts say 2 to 3 months for it to peak after it takes hold :/

No need to remember all of that to someone with a medical background :P

That is precisely my point. You won't likely have any real estimates until late summer or fall and those will come from statistical models and not the official charts. What we have, though, are glimpses based on probability-proportional-to-size sampling.

You can't claim to be worried about "level of care" or something like this based on numbers that are suffering from self-selection bias and under-coverage and ignore quality data that goes, more or less, on the opposite direction. That's cherry picking out of the very concern you claim to be born from it.

The 2 to 3 months prediction is the doomsday scenario where 40% of the population is infected :( China was expected to reach that stage early May if they had not done what they did.

The schools are staying open for now in Holland. Closing them (as well as daycare or what would be the point otherwise) would force many parents to stay home from work, good against the virus, but not deemed necessary/viable yet. Actually it's illegal to keep your kids home if you can't show they are sick.

It seems we'll always be 2 steps behind the virus if we keep going like this. For example that new case in Toronto was imported from Colorado 6 days ago, while the travel advice is just catching on to Italy... The list has grown again today to China, Hong Kong, Iran, Japan, Northern Italy, Singapore, South Korea. The Dutch advice doesn't mention Japan yet. It's probably different in every country :/

School closures work, if done on time.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/opinion/coronavirus-schools-closed.html
This 2 to 14 day incubation period with a disease that looks like a normal flu is the killer.

Its like any influenca, even if the virus varies in strength, how people react to it varies from person to person as well.

Some people will have constant vomiting, dirrea, no strength, a hard time breatheing, coughing fits ect.
Others will just spend time in bed, resting in their own house, and be fine (with maybe milder symptoms).

Some will get so sick, that if they dont rest in a hospital, where they are looked after, they risk dieing.
if thats like 20-25% of the people that get this, then it ll fill up the hospitals in the nearby area's (of the outbreak) quick.
Once bedspace runs out, thats when death rates skyrocket. 

Not to mention, if hospitals are overworked it might effect how well they deal with the other type of things a hospital normally deals with.
ei. other types of patience in hospitals might be effected too... and indirectly die beacuse of coronavirus.

Thats why China did that whole "we ll build a hospital with bedspace in 10days!" type of thingy.