| John2290 said: Hopefully they will put restrictions on boarders sooner than Italy but if they don't how long do you reckon countries catch up to thst point, Italy is very condensed for it's population and a tourist hub so it isn't exactly a great template. Mid April? May? Maybe June if they start taking pre-emptive measures? I reckon in countries with multiple but confined cases we have at least until April starts showing it's head but it's hard to gauge how the growth will happen to the point where Italy is,when there is such different environmental factors as well as population differences. I keep going back and forth in my mind between the start of May and the start of June but Ireland is such a different country than China or Italy super imposing them doesn't seem like it'd be accurate. I wish the experts who are running these numbers would start shelling out the facts of it and tell us what and when we can expect it, but oh no, we can't be trusted with the toilet roll so we can't be trusted with the statistics. |
It's so hard to tell. It says 16 days since the outbreak started in Italy, that's just over 2 weeks to get to where they are now. The first infected could have arrived 14 days earlier than that though, but it picked up speed fast in Italy.
It all depends on travel and what you do for a living as well as population density. Then you have spring break in the USA and March break in Canada coming up. All those people already made travel plans long ago and most won't change them. The weather is starting to warm up here, not enough to hamper the virus, but enough for people to come out of their houses and socialize...
I called my dad today, he lives in the Netherlands. He said my uncle visited him today, who told one of his co-workers had caught the virus. Was the workplace decontaminated? Of course not. Chances are low it spread, but the chance is there and the consequences immense. The netherlands had 77 new cases today, 265 total and 3 deaths so far. I hope my dad will be ok, yet as one of the most densely populated countries where most people take multiple fly vacations a year :/ At least he lives somewhere remote (For Dutch standards)
The experts say 2 to 3 months for it to peak after it takes hold :/
