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SvennoJ on 08 March 2020
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haxxiy said:
SvennoJ said:


However the more numbers, the closer the average comes to the actual data. And that's currently anywhere between 3.4% (deaths / total detected cases) and 6% (deaths / closed cases) without further data. And yep, there are more undetected cases, and there are over 6K fighting for their life atm out of 45K active cases, some of which will move on to critical and some will still die.

Most deaths disproportionately come out of the three main outbreaks - Wuhan, Italy and Iran - even when adjusted for the number of recoveries and closed cases. This suggests there is some significant underreporting going on in these places.

They've also detected far less mild and assymptomatic cases too, compared to the places who can afford to test everyone who might have been in contact with the virus, in case you think it might be due to hospitals being overcrowded and whatnot.

I mean, H1N1 in 2009 had a 4% death rate in the US according to over 100,000 confirmed cases, but that number still can't obviously be reliable. So yeah, that's the gist of how these things work.

Too early to tell with different testing methods. Italy sits at 5%, Germany at 0.1%. Many undetected cases in Italy, a lot of early detected cases in Germany that can still develop into a more serious infection. There are still plenty places with active cases and no deaths yet. All we can do for now is see what the experts say:

In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]

Initial estimate was 2%

Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 [1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that this was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed. Surveillance was increasing, within China but also globally, but at the time it was said that:

  1. We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."[1][2]).
  2. The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
  3. It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization

Of course for the Flu, how many get infected is also just an estimate. Many more can have very mild flu symptoms and not even know they caught the bug. In the end, the level of care that is needed to keep the death rate low is what's the most worrying atm. The serious / critical rate is just as important.

Anyway so far, knock on wood, less new cases today than yesterday. It doesn't mean anything, it goes up and down all the time, but any trend needs to start somewhere. Get that growth factor under 1.0