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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

On the other side
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/experts-slam-dangerous-fallacy-of-virus-herd-immunity-1.5146182

Proponents of allowing the new coronavirus to circulate among populations in the hope of achieving herd immunity are promoting a "dangerous fallacy" devoid of scientific proof, dozens of health experts said Thursday.

In an open letter published in The Lancet medical journal, more than 80 specialists from universities across the world said that the only effective way of limiting excess deaths during the pandemic was to control the disease's spread.

The second wave has also led to a renewed interest in so-called herd immunity, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak among people considered to be at low risk of death or serious illness from the virus.

The health experts listed numerous flaws in the concept. Firstly, "uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population," the letter said. This would have a catastrophic human and financial cost, besides overwhelming healthcare systems.

The authors also noted that it is possible to become reinfected with Covid-19. Herd immunity offers no guarantee that those who caught the virus would remain immune to it for any meaningful length of time.

This would present a risk to vulnerable populations for "the indefinite future", the authors said. Such a strategy would result in "recurrent epidemics" of COVID-19 similar to those caused by numerous infectious diseases before vaccines were invented.

"It would also place an unacceptable burden on the economy and healthcare workers, many of whom have died from COVID-19 or experienced trauma as a result of having to practise disaster medicine," they wrote.

The World Health Organization has been warning for months that herd immunity for COVID-19 was impossible without untold casualties. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the concept was "unethical." "The vast majority of people in most countries remain susceptible to this virus," he said. "Letting the virus circulate unchecked therefore means allowing unnecessary infections, suffering and death."

WHO emergencies director Michael Ryan warned back in May that any country pursuing herd immunity were making "a really dangerous calculation."



And lets not forget that surviving covid-19 is only part of the story
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/three-quarters-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-have-symptoms-months-later-ubc-study-1.5145725

Dozens of people in the Vancouver area who were previously hospitalized with COVID-19 have been tracked by UBC researchers, who found the majority are still reporting symptoms months after their initial illness.

Of the study's 78 participants, 76 per cent reported changes to their quality of life, including weakness, problems sleeping, anxiety and shortness of breath.

“When we did breathing tests for people three months after symptom onset, over half of those patients had abnormality in their breathing test,” said lead author Dr. Alyson Wong. “When we looked at follow-up imaging and we did CT scans ... three months after symptom onset, 88 percent of patients had persistent abnormalities, which was much higher than what we were expecting.”



Btw even if the ifr is 'only' 0.27%, that's still another 9 million deaths before we maybe reach herd immunity with half the population having been exposed to covid-19. Meanwhile, according to my dad, The Netherlands is suspending medical procedures again to make room for covid hospitalizations. The cases are rising dramatically there. Herd immunity is not the way out of this.

 



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US just had the most new cases since July 31st. Hospilaztions have also began to increase nationwide. We've seen this trend before.



Some debate and no peer review yet, but a large study finds no clear benefit to Remdesivir in covid treatments.



I truly believe that eastern countries are doing the right thing by speeding up the process of getting a vaccine ready. We all know there are some risks by I’m convinced that the benefits far outweigh any risk.

"While the U.S. and Europe await the results of large-scale clinical trials before deploying Covid-19 vaccines, some other nations are moving much faster with emergency-use rollouts of experimental Chinese and Russian candidates in an attempt to stem the global rise in infections.

Over the past month, the United Arab Emirates has been offering a Chinese vaccine to thousands of medical workers, teachers, airport staff and government officials in the most ambitious such program outside China itself."

"China has already inoculated hundreds of thousands of citizens at home, expanding the distribution of experimental vaccines outside of clinical trials to students, diplomats and others traveling abroad."

"The U.A.E. last month became the first country outside of China to approve emergency use of a vaccine developed by state-owned China National Pharmaceuticals Group, or Sinopharm, after the Gulf monarchy tested it on 31,000 volunteers of 125 nationalities in Phase 3 trials."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-china-rush-to-fill-covid-19-vaccine-void-left-by-the-wests-cautious-approach-11602761396



Weekly update. New record in reported cases world wide, reported deaths are back down a bit.

There were 2.47 million new cases reported last week (up from 2.28 million) bringing the total to 39.6 million
Reported deaths went back down to 36,404 (down from 39,466) tot a total of 1,108,621

Europe is still climbing, USA is climbing again as well. Deaths are also rising in Europe, details below


The continents

Europe is the epicenter again with 888.5K new cases last week (up from 645.5K) and 7,513 reported deaths (up from 5,503)
Asia continues to decline with 704.9K new cases last week (down from 754.4K) and 10,882 reported deaths (down from 11,711)
North America is on the rise with 469.3K new cases last week (up from 446.7K) and 7,841 reported deaths (down from 10,843)
South America is still improving with 336.2K new cases last week (down from 372.4K) and 8,489 reported deaths (down from 10,009)
Africa has a slight increase with 67.9K new cases last week (up from 58.8K) and 1,668 reported deaths (up from 1,401)
Oceania, mostly French Polynesia, had 1231 new cases last week (up from 935) and 11 new deaths (up from 9)


Corners of the world

India continues to decline, 453.6K new cases last week (down from 505.1K) and 5,582 reported deaths (down from 6,575)
Yesterday the USA took back the top spot thanks to a big spike, 393.8K new cases last week (up from 345.2K) and 4,996 reported deaths (down from 5,124)
Brazil continues to decline, 144.4K new cases last week (down from 175.0K) and 3,537 reported deaths (down from 4,261)

Iran is still on the rise, 30.0K new cases last week (up from 27.8K) and 1,772 reported deaths (up from 1,531)
Canada starting to stabilize, 16.0K new cases last week (up from 15.5K) and 137 reported deaths (down from 176)
South Africa is slowly going back up, 11.9K new cases last week (up from 10.5K) and 823 reported deaths (up from 638)

Japan, South Korea and Australia are holding steady

Europe is concerning, the second wave is hitting pretty hard and reported deaths are also increasing faster.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 17 October 2020

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Over 400k new cases the last two days. Could see half a million daily cases mid November and December.



Germany is beating previous records and still nothing is being done. I am disappointed.



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vivster said:
Germany is beating previous records and still nothing is being done. I am disappointed.

Yeah, I am disappointed to. Since weeks I voluntarily choose home office (and luckily my boss wasn't stopping me) and be careful, but the numbers still explode and the politicians are too reluctant to go into a new lockdown. They seem to hope things get better without intervention or just small interventions, but I don't think so. And therefore reality will force serious actions later on, but at that time things will be worse.



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vivster said:
Germany is beating previous records and still nothing is being done. I am disappointed.

It seems all we do here is keep the border to the US closed, now extended until Nov 21st at least. And test less so we can work through the back log... A few places went back to stage 2 which isn't all that much, less people per restaurant kind of stuff. Yet to go to stage 1 the numbers had to be much much lower than they are now... Setting new records until ICUs are full. Preventative action is not part of our 'strategy'

Over the past week we did 37.7K tests a day on average, the week before 43.6K tests a day on average.
5,232 positives in the lower testing week vs 4,940 the week before with more testing.
We're over 700 daily average atm, we were down to the 70's and our April first wave peak was just under 600.



vivster said:
Germany is beating previous records and still nothing is being done. I am disappointed.

Sounds like America.