Torillian said: Car crashes kill about a 5th of the people per day as the "pooh virus". Also car crashes aren't contagious. Just like the pool drowning comparison there just isn't a good comparison to be made between accidental deaths and a contagious disease.   Also most of the people in the "we need to take this more seriously camp" are just trying to get people to wear masks which is akin to seatbelts in your example. But large swathes of our population can't even be bothered to do that.

That was just an example, my point is it's hardly the end of mankind so I'm just not gonna treat it differently than all the other things that can kill. I do wear a mask when I go out still (even if only to avoid confrontation) and I've been social distancing long before the pooh virus so you don't gotta worry about me, but I ain't gonna shame people if they decide not take any more precaution than they normally would.

JRPGfan said: Torillian said: Car crashes kill about a 5th of the people per day as the "pooh virus". Also car crashes aren't contagious. Just like the pool drowning comparison there just isn't a good comparison to be made between accidental deaths and a contagious disease.   Torillian just say it like this :  Car's kill about 30,000-35,000 every year in the US. Corona Virus HAS killed 134,000+ in about 4 months. thats like 4-5 times as many deaths, by corona virus, in about 1/3th the time. OR potentially ~15 times as much, as Cars do pr year, so far, in the USA.

Just to add on the car crash numbers, about 26000 die per week globally in car crashes. Coronavirus has blown right passed that number already.

JRPGfan said: Torillian said: Car crashes kill about a 5th of the people per day as the "pooh virus". Also car crashes aren't contagious. Just like the pool drowning comparison there just isn't a good comparison to be made between accidental deaths and a contagious disease.   Torillian just say it like this :  Car's kill about 30,000-35,000 every year in the US. Corona Virus HAS killed 134,000+ in about 4 months. thats like 4-5 times as many deaths, by corona virus, in about 1/3th the time. OR potentially ~15 times as much, as Cars do pr year, so far, in the USA.

That and we have many rules to prevent car crashes.

Think of wearing a face mask as wearing a seat belt and having air bags.
Think of social distancing as speed limits and stop signs.

See what happens to car crashes without those.

Actually fatality rates on the roads were slightly on the rise due to more people speeding due to fewer traffic jams after many workplaces closed down.

https://ohsonline.com/articles/2020/05/22/motor-vehicle-fatality-rates-up-14-percent-in-march-despite-covid19.aspx
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-roads-are-quieter-due-to-coronavirus-but-there-are-more-fatal-car-crashes-11588152600
https://abc7.com/traffic-fatalities-california-highway-patrol-speeding-covid-19/6198603/
https://www.policeone.com/coronavirus-covid-19/articles/5-states-report-rise-in-car-crash-deaths-during-covid-19-ET9YTTqJ7WffWndK/

One more way Covid19 causes more deaths :/


Another concern when schools start up again. A lot of people haven't driven much in a long time and seem to have forgotten how to drive (really :/) I've noticed it while cycling on the road, so many stupid risky overtakes forcing oncoming traffic into the soft shoulder. I'm sticking more to the gravel roads now, the main roads have become more dangerous. People have also gotten used to not slowing down for school zones anymore. Toronto recently installed speed cameras in a lot of school zones that will automatically ticket speeding drivers.
https://www.cp24.com/news/toronto-s-speed-cameras-begin-issuing-tickets-today-1.5012041

Lonely_Dolphin said: Torillian said: Car crashes kill about a 5th of the people per day as the "pooh virus". Also car crashes aren't contagious. Just like the pool drowning comparison there just isn't a good comparison to be made between accidental deaths and a contagious disease.   Also most of the people in the "we need to take this more seriously camp" are just trying to get people to wear masks which is akin to seatbelts in your example. But large swathes of our population can't even be bothered to do that.  That was just an example, my point is it's hardly the end of mankind so I'm just not gonna treat it differently than all the other things that can kill. I do wear a mask when I go out still (even if only to avoid confrontation) and I've been social distancing long before the pooh virus so you don't gotta worry about me, but I ain't gonna shame people if they decide not take any more precaution than they normally would.

I would like to shame some for always making me put the shopping carts together whenever they just push it in the needed direction from afar and uncleaned or leaving the cleaning tissues in the cart itself.

Really,lately almost every time i go shopping these days i'm putting the shopping carts back in order. :P

JRPGfan said: +55,442 cases yesterday in the US. Thats insane to me, yesterday we had +10 new cases in denmark. (I know the population difference is like x50) US should have another lockdown tbh, theres too many cases, that just good hygiene and wearing a mask, will do enough quick enough. Deaths in the US went up to ~1,000 too (+993 yesterday). Its now starting riseing, along with the new infections.

There is some adjustment from July 4th in there. The US was 'missing' about 260 over the weekend which were likely now included in Tuesday's reporting.

The last 7 days, USA reported 3,855 deaths.
The 7 days before that, USA reported 4,027 deaths.
The 7 days before that, USA reported 4,341 deaths.

The decline went from 92.8% week over week to 95.7% week over week. While it's not rising yet, the decline is slowing down to disappearing.

It's much lower now than at the peak since the spread of the virus has shifted to the younger population while those most at risk hide. However at some point it will jump over with that many infected people walking around. Hospitals have also gotten better at keeping people alive, although coming out the hospital with a $1 million bill, ravaged lungs and potential brain damage, not much of a victory there.

There is of course the matter of excess deaths as well. I can't find any recent counts on that, none of the studies go beyond the start of June, so any new missing deaths from the recent uprise in cases remain hidden for now. The CDC site stops at June 13 but notes that only 60% of deaths are reported to them within 10 days and completeness varies by jurisdiction.

The growth in cases slowed down a bit as well, it was about 120% week over week before July 4th drove it down further to 111% week over week. It's going back up now.


Are people responding to the recent resurgence, mobility changes for 4 states:








Not really any change yet. People taking Friday off and preparing for July 4th is clearly visible, but no real change in trends for the recent rise in cases.

SpokenTruth said: Torillian said: True, the decreased death rate is pretty interesting, I need to read into what might have caused that after this is all said and done. On the mask thing I just read a pretty heartening Gallup poll result that 86% of the country say they've worn a mask in the past week. That's pretty decent though I'd be curious how it compares to (what I'd think of as) more reasonable countries.  I'd pay money to see a state by state breakdown of these results.  Pretty sure you can guess where they are high and where they are low and how they correlate to the recent spikes in certain states.

This is mainly about saving the economy by making masks mandatory but also talks about the effectiveness.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/making-masks-mandatory-may-save-the-economy-too-goldman-sachs-economist-says-1.5015450

Goldman Sachs' research found that states that mandated masks saw approximately 25 per cent of their population shift to always or frequently wearing them in public within the first month or so, in addition to those who were already wearing them often.

"[This] suggests that a national mask mandate could increase US face mask usage by statistically significant and economically large amounts, especially in states such as Florida and Texas that currently don’t have a comprehensive mandate and are seeing some of the worst outbreaks," Hatzius wrote.

The research also found that new COVID-19 case rates fall significantly starting about a week after a state's mask mandate comes into force, and continue to fall for at least the following month, with death rates decreasing as well.

States without mandatory mask orders accounted for half of the U.S. population but two-thirds of all new COVID-19 cases as of July 1, Hatzius said.

Beginning Friday, July 10, malls can open in Phase 4 regions as long as they have enhanced HVAC filtration systems & measures in place.

The more we learn about COVID, the clearer it is that safe ventilation is crucial.

— Archive: Governor Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) July 8, 2020

In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 8, 2020

He is right, in denmark we did reopen the schools.

We started with the younger grades, and kept them "social distanced" and carefully, while monitoring infections, reopenend more and more.
We split the younger grade classes, into grouppings, and kept them apart from one another, both in the class room, and outsides while playing.
Takeing in older and higher grades, as infection numbers dropped. And step by step, dropping restrictions, as less and less virus spread is out there. Soon as virus is detected, you close down the "class" and have them back at being schooled online again, until the class is without virus, and once again can gather.

However as the coronavirus is all but gone (250-300 active cases in the entire country), it was possible to have our schools back and running, along with everything else.The "root" of the problem is the virus. Once have have it down to low enough levels, and if your carefull with spread, and good with testing so you have a idea of how things stand, you can go about doing such, in a responsible mannor.

You cannot skip steps, and expect the same outcomes however.
If you have a rampageing outbreak of coronavirus, obviously it doesnt make sense to reopen schools right?

Basically to copy us the USA just needs to:
1) Test twice as many people, as they currently are.
2) get new daily infections down to about ~500 pr day (for the entire country of the USA)

Yesterday we had 10 new cases, and today we had 12 new cases.
US is about 50 times larger than us in population (thus ~500 daily cases).

Then you can re-open your schools, safely.

Also we re good on social distanceing and cleaning, and our schools and classes are more spread out (ei. not all completely back to normal).
Hand Washing / hand sanitizing, face masks.... and spreading out a class, is the safe(ish) way to do things.
Our ratio of students to teachers is differnt too..... I've read in the US they sometimes have 50-60 people in a class room? thats obviously too many.

*edit:
Also summer holidays are a thing..... so while we did reopen them, they currently arn't.
Which just makes it odd he uses these countries as a exsample, of why the US should reopen their schools.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 08 July 2020

Barozi said: 2,775 positive cases (-28.1%) with 456k tests (+20.6%). On average there were 396 positive cases a day (or 463 if you discard Sunday). 329 in ICU (-0.6%) Way better numbers even with 20% more tests. Looks like the previous slaughterhouse outbreak didn't have any lasting effect on the numbers. Berlin is also looking much much better. Only about double the German average this week. Only 0.8% of tests came back positive which is the same amount as the week prior to the outbreak. Sadly, the numbers of patients in ICU didn't drop at all.

2,339 positive cases (-15.7%) with 494k tests (+8.3%).

On average there were 334 positive cases a day (or 390 if you discard Sunday).

292 in ICU (-11.2%)

Best week yet! Finally managed to get a decent increase in testing capacity. Previous weeks averaged between 320k and 400k.
Positivity rate dropped to 0.6%.
10 out of 16 states reported less than 10 cases a day.
Things are looking pretty good at the moment.

Barozi said: Barozi said: 2,775 positive cases (-28.1%) with 456k tests (+20.6%). On average there were 396 positive cases a day (or 463 if you discard Sunday). 329 in ICU (-0.6%) Way better numbers even with 20% more tests. Looks like the previous slaughterhouse outbreak didn't have any lasting effect on the numbers. Berlin is also looking much much better. Only about double the German average this week. Only 0.8% of tests came back positive which is the same amount as the week prior to the outbreak. Sadly, the numbers of patients in ICU didn't drop at all. 2,339 positive cases (-15.7%) with 494k tests (+8.3%). On average there were 334 positive cases a day (or 390 if you discard Sunday). 292 in ICU (-11.2%) Best week yet! Finally managed to get a decent increase in testing capacity. Previous weeks averaged between 320k and 400k. Positivity rate dropped to 0.6%. 10 out of 16 states reported less than 10 cases a day. Things are looking pretty good at the moment.

Germany is doing prety well, considering how much larger you guys are.
We're (denmark) down to 5 people now in the ICU.
4 of which are on respirators.

We re also less than 290 active (confirmed) cases of covid19 in the country.

I'm actually pretty happy with how well germany, denmark, norway ect handled this.
Its good that neigboring countries also handled this well, so we dont effect one another.

Sweden is the "odd" man out, so far, but hopefully they get it under controll there anyways (at some point).