By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

LurkerJ said:
John2290 said:

Oh boy, oh boy.

One gotta wonder what did we destroy economies and millions of jobs for. 

Well, I actually worry more about office settings. The respiratory aerosols disperse quickly in the open with air flow. In closed rooms however they stay for hours. As protests usually happen outside, I see reduced risks. Especially since many protesters are wearing masks.

But yes - not gathering in a big crowd would be better.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 10 June 2020

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Around the Network
JRPGfan said:
No one is gonna mention that in brazil, that tested around 1million people, and have found 742,000+ confirmed cases?
Brazil is basically only testing people with heavy symptoms of covid19.

Brazil is messing with all the numbers, reported deaths, baseline death rate, hospitalizations and reported cases.

For example:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/brazil-pulls-all-coronavirus-stats-then-releases-incompatible-numbers/
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2020/06/07/brazils-covid-19-data-blackout-is-a-tragedy-ex-health-chief-says.html

The imperial college tried to map Brazil's progression early May but also already state the difficulty in tracking their numbers back then
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-08-COVID19-Report-21.pdf

Worldinfometer tries to keep track and has Brazil at 38497 deaths which surely is under the real number, yet there currently is no way to get an accurate excess deaths count.

With an estimated 1% infected fatality ratio, at least 3.8 million infections 15 days ago. Their case fatality ratio atm is 10% (current deaths compared to total cases 15 days ago) The USA sits at 6.6% CFR, Italy at 14.8%, Russia (only counting pneumonia deaths with covid19 confirmed) at 1.8%.

Brazil is doing very bad, even with all the messed up (under counted / missing) numbers, they are already on top for daily reported cases and deaths. And yep their infected / tests is ridiculously high, 74% compared to Germany 4.3%.

Who knows if we'll ever find out the true death toll in Brazil.



curl-6 said:
numberwang said:

I have never anybody irl who cared about this virus and that includes old people. I don't know anybody who knowingly had it or knows someone who had it. It seems the online crowd who supported the shutdowns switched effortlessly to "it's just the flu bro" with these protest and riots.

Consider yourself lucky. More so than the over 3 million people currently suffering through it, or the more than 400,000 and counting who've died. Or the families of those 400,000.

Doubtful number considering that anyone who dies with the coronavirus (regardless of symptoms) is counted as having died from it. I will take more time to analyze total death numbers (many of them caused by the lockdowns) compared to previous years to get a better estimation of "surplus death".



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Luxembourg is down to 30 active cases, hopefully we can soon also join the elusive club of Covid-free countries.

The virus won't just disappear. All known coronaviruses take a break during summer (just like the flu) and will come back in December. 2nd wave should be smaller considering many people will be immune by that point and media attention will be small so no one will care anymore. I don't see how most people could avoid this virus in the long run.



numberwang said:
curl-6 said:

Consider yourself lucky. More so than the over 3 million people currently suffering through it, or the more than 400,000 and counting who've died. Or the families of those 400,000.

Doubtful number considering that anyone who dies with the coronavirus (regardless of symptoms) is counted as having died from it. I will take more time to analyze total death numbers (many of them caused by the lockdowns) compared to previous years to get a better estimation of "surplus death".

There might be some counted as Covid-19 deaths which died from something else but you have way more people who died from it but didn't get counted in these numbers. If it's old people in nursing homes which just don't get counted or way too many countries not counting properly at all (because they just can't do it better or because they just fake numbers to let it look better as it is). Maybe it's just me but I can't imagine poor countries like Mozambique to be able to find out every Covid-19 death. 

To believe that the real numbers are lower as 400k right now is pretty optimistic. 

Turkey had a much later outbreak (that's what they try to tell everyone) but they still got death numbers down much earlier as many other countries which doesn't make any sense. Iran's numbers were even less believable and we don't even have to start to talk about countries like Russia, Brazil and probably 50 more countries which don't like to talk about reality. Or let's say those who have the power there don't like to do it. 

Last edited by crissindahouse - on 10 June 2020

Around the Network
numberwang said:
curl-6 said:

Consider yourself lucky. More so than the over 3 million people currently suffering through it, or the more than 400,000 and counting who've died. Or the families of those 400,000.

Doubtful number considering that anyone who dies with the coronavirus (regardless of symptoms) is counted as having died from it. I will take more time to analyze total death numbers (many of them caused by the lockdowns) compared to previous years to get a better estimation of "surplus death".

How many deaths do you think are caused by the lock downs?
Does it matter btw, lock downs are preventing many more deaths. The difference in timing between lock downs demonstrates how exponentially worse it gets.
In the end the lock downs are because of covid19, so any deaths because of lock downs are an indirect result of covid19.

If anything the reported deaths are way too low
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441






numberwang said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Luxembourg is down to 30 active cases, hopefully we can soon also join the elusive club of Covid-free countries.

The virus won't just disappear. All known coronaviruses take a break during summer (just like the flu) and will come back in December. 2nd wave should be smaller considering many people will be immune by that point and media attention will be small so no one will care anymore. I don't see how most people could avoid this virus in the long run.

How about a vaccine, by any chance?



crissindahouse said:
numberwang said:

Doubtful number considering that anyone who dies with the coronavirus (regardless of symptoms) is counted as having died from it. I will take more time to analyze total death numbers (many of them caused by the lockdowns) compared to previous years to get a better estimation of "surplus death".

There might be some counted as Covid-19 deaths which died from something else but you have way more people who died from it but didn't get counted in these numbers. If it's old people in nursing homes which just don't get counted or way too many countries not counting properly at all (because they just can't do it better or because they just fake numbers to let it look better as it is).

To believe that the real numbers are lower as 400k right now is pretty optimistic. 

I doubt that. Covid19 resembles a slow and prolonged severe pneumonia with visible symptoms and I don't see how patients in first world countries could have not been tested. Third world countries don't have the demographics of +75years olds with multiple underlying diseases.



Imperial college released a detailed study linking mobility data to decline in Rt

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-06-08-COVID19-Report-26.pdf

Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing. Here, we develop a framework to infer the relationship between mobility andthe key measure of population-level disease transmission, the reproduction number (R). The framework is applied to 53 countries with sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission based on two distinct country-specific automated measures of human mobility,Apple and Google mobility data.

For both datasets, the relationship between mobility and transmission was consistent within and across countries and explained more than 85% of the variance in the observed variationin transmissibility. We quantified country-specific mobility thresholds defined as the reduction in mobility necessary to expect a decline in new infections (R<1).

Unfortunately it's so detailed and extensive (53 countries analyzed) that it's also over a month behind already, it goes up to May 10th.
The country specific pages are from page 31 to 83.


Google updated its data to June 5th
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

I added it together for Ontario from March 6th and overlayed the reported cases in Ontario (corrected for date of symptoms onset)


(The cases at the end are not complete yet since new reported cases are added to earlier dates by symptoms onset)
The cases should be another 5 days to the left to line them up by time of infection.

Of course mobility is only one half of the measures, face masks and social distancing do a lot of the work as well.



numberwang said:
crissindahouse said:

There might be some counted as Covid-19 deaths which died from something else but you have way more people who died from it but didn't get counted in these numbers. If it's old people in nursing homes which just don't get counted or way too many countries not counting properly at all (because they just can't do it better or because they just fake numbers to let it look better as it is).

To believe that the real numbers are lower as 400k right now is pretty optimistic. 

I doubt that. Covid19 resembles a slow and prolonged severe pneumonia with visible symptoms and I don't see how patients in first world countries could have not been tested. Third world countries don't have the demographics of +75years olds with multiple underlying diseases.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid19-clots-coronavirus-1.5585582
There are different ways to die from Covid19. Some hospitals have found 40 per cent of deaths in COVID-19 patients are from blood clots. Spyropoulos said that's been true at his 23-hospital system in the New York City area, Northwell Health, which has treated over 11,000 COVID-19 patients. Russia doesn't count these at all for example.

Covid19 can also have rapid progression. In can turn from doing all right into quickly running out of air and passing out. Many deaths in elderly homes didn't get tested and never saw a hospital.

Anyway what else is suddenly going around to cause so many extra deaths worldwide?