7 new cases nation-wide for Australia in the last 24 hour period, bringing our total to 7276. (6744 recovered, 403 active, 102 deaths)

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

A patient treated in a hospital near Paris on 27 December for suspected pneumonia actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said. This means the virus may have arrived in Europe almost a month earlier than previously thought. Dr Yves Cohen said a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19. The patient, who has since recovered, said he had no idea where he caught the virus as he had not travelled abroad.

Pretty convincing argument, community spread before December 27th. Since that person already had symptoms bad enough to go to the hospital, infection was likely already mid December.

The November ones are less clear since it's from looking at hundreds of x-rays finding particular symptoms that look like what covid19 does to the lungs. The flu varies between years and places, who knows a mild flu season was disguising the onset of the covid19 pandemic. It didn't need to be that mild anyway, the early numbers are quite low. 2 cases in November means 120 cases a month later with R0 at 2.0. With a fatality rate of 1%, easily missed. If early transmission is as low as R0 1.5, from for example healthy young athletes bringing it back to France start of November (thus many asymptomatic cases) then 5 infected people bringing it back early November turn into 50 by early December, 500 by early Januari. Until it hits more at risk people who get really sick, nobody would think much of it.

I think the confirmation bias lies more towards the "it's just a bad flu". There are many more mild cases and cases without symptoms.

It's plausible, and a better explanation imo than the virus suddenly speeding up to get the explosive growth early March. And it's good to know what the actual infection rate is to better understand how to stay below R 1 with the least destructive measures. Atm it seems everyone is still doing trial and error with enormous lag from testing, mostly only after people show symptoms.

and thats even with some of the states "fudgeing" the numbers, to justify the reopening.
(ei. they are marking down covid19 deaths are other things, to show decreaseing numbers, so they can reopen)

Meanwhile:

The US can expect that another 100,000 people will die from #coronavirus by September, Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute#COVID19

— Michael Holmes (@holmescnn) June 10, 2020

Dr. Ashish Jha from Harvard, thinks another 100,000+ deaths will come over the next 4 months in the US.

The USA reported 5,736 deaths in the last 7 days while hardly showing any decline week over week.
So yeah that's about 25K a month. It will go down in some places, up in others. And that's all still under counted.

The USA is also inching closer and closer to Europe's total reported cases, outpacing Europe by 5,000 cases daily, 74K gap left

USA is at about 90% week over week change, slowing currently while early outbreaks decline, before later outbreaks peak.
Europe's decline slowed to 94.5% week over week change, Belarus (812 daily) and Ukraine (525 daily) are starting to contribute quite a bit.

The world is climbing up again, already a high yesterday, likely even higher today. Friday is peak day for world cases, while Monday has the lowest reported cases of the week. Usually there's a 20% difference between Monday to Friday numbers. Reported deaths are lowest on Mondays as well, sometimes on Sunday, and highest mid week, Tuesday to Thursday. Difference of about 40%

Apart from Oceania, the other continents are growing steadily

South America adds 40.2K new cases per day, 105% week over week change.
Asia adds 34.0K new cases per day, 116% week over week change.
NA, Mexico is still growing slightly, yet USA and Canada compensate, 25.6K new cases per day, 96% week over week change.
Europe adds 19.7K new cases per day with 94.5% week over week change.
Africa adds 6.6K new cases per day, 119% week over week change.
Oceania adds 6 cases per day.


The state of Europe (3 day average reported cases)


Top 5 representing 81% of Europe's daily reported cases:

Russia leading with 8,661 new cases per day, 59% of Europe's total
UK is still in second with 1316 new cases per day, 9% of Europe's total
Belarus is in third (not on the graph) with 812 new cases per day, 5.6% of Europe's total.
Sweden now in 4th with 543 new cases per day, 3.7% of Europe's total
Ukraine (not on the graph) rounds up the top 5 with 461 new cases per day, 3.2% of Europe's total

3 day average reported deaths


3 day avg for Europe is 666 atm.
Russia should be well in first, under counting worse than the UK and others.
Counting deaths seems to get more and more variable, Spain still not reporting deaths for over 2 weeks now.
Switzerland is back on the board after reporting a couple new deaths in the last 2 days, Denmark dropped off.

Are you sure you got the number for sweden correctly? The worldometer is using this site for source: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

The last day (June 11) will almost certainly see an increase of cases when it's updated tomorrow. 196 Cases is reported for that day, expect it to increase when it's updated tomorrow.

Ah, I updated my charts last night, yet in the mean time Worldinfometer has made corrections again

I had 3 day averages copied down
Last 7 days 1001, 1084, 978, 657, 608, 630, 543
Now corrected to 1001, 1085, 1003, 810, 610, 646, 969

A big spike of 1427 cases currently on worldinfometer for Jun 10th. (same as in your link)
Sweden keeping me and Worldinfometer busy, same thing last week. I'll update the last 6 days for next time.
The reported deaths are still the same.

So Sweden is actually in 3rd with 6.6% of Europe's total, although that total should have changed as well.
Yup it was reported as 14351 new cases for Europe last night, now 15114, and 15662 the day before (from 14928)
That raises the 3 day average to 15118 and reduces the week over week change to 97.8%

With summer arriving, the Gothenburg (second largest city) region getting hit hard and increased testing I expect Swedish numbers to look quite disheartening for some time.

Yep the daily reported dead is correct, but the confirmed cases are different numbers than what is reported here in the media, I think the source worldometer is using is half day/1 day behind or something.

Yeah Västra Götaland with only 1.7 million people, that also contains our second biggest city Gothenburg reported 647 cases today but they can easily take it.

Another 9 cases reported nation-wide for Australia yesterday. Two of these were in quarantined returned overseas travelers, so just seven out there in the community.

Nation-wide, 18 people are in hospital with it, 2 in ICU.

Someone who was at a big Black Lives Matter protest here in Melbourne has tested positive, but they were wearing a mask, as was nearly everybody there, so hopefully it doesn't cause a flare-up.

It's going well with Canada over all, big decline which seems to hold this time.
Alberta and BC are up a bit but still small numbers.

I do wonder why the sudden change when recent openings and observations outside would put it in the other direction. I guess we ran out of delayed cases, computer glitches and cases from extra testing, allowing everyone to get tested in the past few weeks. We're finally through the low hanging fruit. Although there are 16K tests pending in Ontario, up from 3K in the weekend, yet also 24K tests taken, up from 15K. My local county has been reporting a new case every day this week so definitely not done with it yet.

The different strategies

Brazil and India both setting new records.
USA going down slowly, Iran took a big dip, Canada accelerating downwards.
Japan and South Korea are holding just under 50 new cases a day and Australia is staying below 10 new cases per day.

Week over week

Brazil and India both at 115% week over week change.
USA is down to 92% week over week.
Canada and Iran are at 68% week over week change.