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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

John2290 said:
This whole Trump thing, while a good distraction, is not helping anyone. Infact it's probably helping Trump more cause I've seen media twist his words to high heaven, NBC "The presidents suggestion that people should inject household cleaner and disinfectants" I mean, what the fuck. Trump gave you a nuclear bomb but you still had to try and up the yield, NBC, I swear they are on Trumps side and try everything to help him, I'm sure of it at this point and lol at Trump trying to play it off as sarcasm, he really is a child. Anyway, there is more important things to worry about than the president a mumbling some shit about treatments he heard and didn't understand. The UV light in the lungs is a real patent, the disinfectant in the body has been done before and I'm sure he was briefed on these treatments and just cocked up the inquiry on the podium, all he had to do was admit it, do his usual double and triple down and this wouldn't be a topic anymore, his base would believe him and everyone outside his base would question themselves enough to have serious doubts of the truth. It's what he always does and it work, why does he continually have to fuck up over and over again in this pandemic...can he not hand the damn job to Pence until it's over cause watching this shit along with the cold war with China behind the scenes is getting a bit nerve racking at this point.

I'm still a little confused by this post.  The disinfectants have been used in body before?  There have been some people in past that drank bleach and some have died. 

They were talking about effectiveness of bleach, alcohol and other products like Lysol on the virus before Trump started asking about putting disinfectants in the body so automatically that makes it sound to any normal person that he is asking about somehow using household cleaning products inside one's body.  So tell me what disinfectants are safe to inject into someone's body.

Last edited by sethnintendo - on 27 April 2020

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Phoenix20 said:

Sweden approach makes the most logical sense and is sustainable.
The only area they messed up was not locking away old people
Most of the death tallies have been old people and cocooning the old people and limiting their visits may be the best approach.
Why not just lock down the old people and business as usual for the young fit healthy people?

We'll have to see if it is sustainable in the next months.

Also Sweden is "playing on easy mode" with a population density of just 60 people per square mile. A virus can spread much better in countries with a high population density and "social distancing" should be easier in countries with a low population density.

For comparison some other European countries:

  • Germany: 603 people per square mile
  • France: 319 people per square mile
  • United Kingdom: 710 people per square mile
  • Italy: 518 people per square mile
  • Spain: 241 people per square mile
  • Netherlands: 1085 people per square mile
  • Belgium: 976 people per square mile
  • Austria: 275 people per square mile
  • Switzerland: 539 people per square mile

So even if Sweden's approach should work for them, that recipe could end in desaster in a different country with a much higher population density.



South Korea reported recently 222 patients of COVID-19 have again tested positive after being told they were clear of the virus. Authorities there are working to determine if the tests failed to recognise the virus was still present in those patients, or if the individuals were indeed reinfected.

Israel expressed similar concerns days ago. Bat shit crazy.



Coronavirus quandary: Some patients in S Korea get virus again

Uncertainty over the reinfection or reactivation of the virus in patients could affect vaccine development.

Seoul, South Korea - As countries like the United States and Italy continue to diagnose and lose thousands of people to COVID-19 each day, South Korea's new infections appear to be thinning out.

But the country is now grappling with a new problem: at least 222 people have tested positive for the virus again after recovering, and experts are not sure why.

"We can look at this as a matter of reinfection or a matter of reactivation," said Dr Roh Kyung-ho, who works at the Department of Laboratory Medicine at the National Health Insurance Ilsan Hospital.

"It is most likely that the virus is reactivated or reinfected because of [an individual's] insufficient immune function," Roh explained. "In the case of reinfections, it's possible that a person recovers from the virus and then comes into contact with other asymptomatic carriers of the virus in the community.""It is most likely that the virus is reactivated or reinfected because of [an individual's] insufficient immune function," Roh explained. "In the case of reinfections, it's possible that a person recovers from the virus and then comes into contact with other asymptomatic carriers of the virus in the community."

Experts in South Korea do not seem to think the fault lies with their test kits, which are now being exported en masse. At least 120 countries have requested Korean COVID-19 tests as imports or humanitarian aid, while South Korea exported test kits worth $48.6m in March.

It might sound alarming, but researchers believe that a reactivation of the virus is a far better scenario than potential reinfection, which would complicate efforts to develop a vaccine.

The World Health Organization warned on April 24 that countries should be careful about issuing "immunity passports" to those recovered from COVID-19, saying there was no evidence that people cannot get the disease again.The World Health Organization warned on April 24 that countries should be careful about issuing "immunity passports" to those recovered from COVID-19, saying there was no evidence that people cannot get the disease again.

"So far, we have not seen significant changes in the coronavirus itself, so the possibility of being truly reinfected is low," Hwang said. "If a variant of the virus crops up this fall or winter, then there is a possibility of reinfections. However, usually as the number of strains of a virus increases, the infectiousness of the virus increases, but the deadliness tends to decrease."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-quandary-patients-south-korea-200426235141488.html



Coronavirus alert: Rare syndrome seen in UK children
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52439005

Not great news.



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Damn,i'm not the most social guy but i do miss my family.
Infections and deaths are on a steady decline in Belgium and also the Netherlands i presume,schools are partly having classes again next week.



Immersiveunreality said:
Damn,i'm not the most social guy but i do miss my family.
Infections and deaths are on a steady decline in Belgium and also the Netherlands i presume,schools are partly having classes again next week.

Any insight in what the strategies are going forward?

Belgium is still at some 1100 new cases daily and 200 deaths.
The Netherlands still at over 700 new cases daily and 100 deaths.

Previous estimates suggest in both deaths are under reported although much more in the Netherlands. (Looking at divergence from the norm the Netherlands and Belgium are actually quite close)

Contrast with Ontario (population 14.6 million, sitting in between Belgium and the Netherlands) where we have a bit over 500 new cases daily and 45 deaths (likely also under counted) and here they just extended school closures until May 31st.



Countries like New Zealand, Australia and South Korea want to eliminate the virus before getting going again. Austria was down to 50 cases daily (now slightly up again to 70 average) when starting to slowly open things up again.

What is the plan in the Netherlands and Belgium? Let it slowly keep going as long as it doesn't overwhelm the health care system? Or is the hope it will still shrink away to almost nothing?



SvennoJ said:

Those corrected graphs (adding deaths to the day they happened, not the day the were reported) are not accurate for the back end. When later deaths get identified they get added to past columns, so you can't say that April 15th looks like a peak, since the data for 17 to 26 is still very incomplete.

What you can tell is that the spread of the virus is indeed a lot slower in Sweden. I wonder what math he used to get to 30% infected by April 10th with a R0 of 1.6. That's about a doubling rate of 7.5 days, which that graph supports.

Taking 1 million population for Stockholm, 300k infected by April 10th, it would take 6 infected people in Stockholm on December 12th to pull that off. Even though the incubation period is variable, just like quantum mechanics, over plenty time these systems behave in a very predictable way.

I wonder what kind of math he used? But who knows how long this virus has been around. Suspicious pneumonia cases were around in Italy in late November.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-emergence-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D2IG

The mystery then becomes, why did it go undetected for so long.

Those earlier pneumonia cases could be something entirely different as well, for example 2018
https://www.thelocal.it/20180909/150-pneumonia-cases-spark-health-alert-in-north-italy
It definitely wasn't covid19 back then!

From what I remember him saying from multiple segments, he first used R2.5 as a number, this was based on multiple studies showing the R number will be between 2.3-2.7 if society does nothing. Then he changed the R number to 1.6 on march 16 as our government gave guidelines/recommendation to people and companies. He also talked about hospital, he said something about how fast people coming in and out from the hospital. The last I heard him saying is using daily dead. Those are the 3 numbers I heard him using, some kind of hospital number, daily dead and R number. But as Forest-spirit mention, he recently reduced the infection spread a bit as the daily dead number didn't increase at the rate he thought it would.

And Stockholm metro has 2.3 million people not 1 Million, you can see this on his chart here on TV.

last92 said:
Trumpstyle said:

Hehe you guys will have no choice, you will mimic us :)

Whatever happens, I will never wear a face mask, that is for certain.

Why not? Wearing a mask is just a minor inconvenience and it can help stop the spread and ultimately save lives. 

I don't think it helps, it seems to be more of a culture thing. Even before this virus I would sometimes see asian people wearing a face mask, it makes no sense to me.



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SvennoJ said:
Immersiveunreality said:
Damn,i'm not the most social guy but i do miss my family.
Infections and deaths are on a steady decline in Belgium and also the Netherlands i presume,schools are partly having classes again next week.

Any insight in what the strategies are going forward?

Belgium is still at some 1100 new cases daily and 200 deaths.
The Netherlands still at over 700 new cases daily and 100 deaths.

Previous estimates suggest in both deaths are under reported although much more in the Netherlands. (Looking at divergence from the norm the Netherlands and Belgium are actually quite close)

Contrast with Ontario (population 14.6 million, sitting in between Belgium and the Netherlands) where we have a bit over 500 new cases daily and 45 deaths (likely also under counted) and here they just extended school closures until May 31st.



Countries like New Zealand, Australia and South Korea want to eliminate the virus before getting going again. Austria was down to 50 cases daily (now slightly up again to 70 average) when starting to slowly open things up again.

What is the plan in the Netherlands and Belgium? Let it slowly keep going as long as it doesn't overwhelm the health care system? Or is the hope it will still shrink away to almost nothing?

The cases and deaths need to be atleast half of what they're now before the quarantine/soft lockdown will be dissolved,i'm guessing we could reach that point at end May/mid Juli.

I can't wait to invite some folks and cook up some fine dishes for them,when it is safe to do ofcourse and i also need to do the rest of my playtrough of Sekiro with my brother in law.(playing that game with two and taking turns is great:p)



Trumpstyle said:
SvennoJ said:

Those corrected graphs (adding deaths to the day they happened, not the day the were reported) are not accurate for the back end. When later deaths get identified they get added to past columns, so you can't say that April 15th looks like a peak, since the data for 17 to 26 is still very incomplete.

What you can tell is that the spread of the virus is indeed a lot slower in Sweden. I wonder what math he used to get to 30% infected by April 10th with a R0 of 1.6. That's about a doubling rate of 7.5 days, which that graph supports.

Taking 1 million population for Stockholm, 300k infected by April 10th, it would take 6 infected people in Stockholm on December 12th to pull that off. Even though the incubation period is variable, just like quantum mechanics, over plenty time these systems behave in a very predictable way.

I wonder what kind of math he used? But who knows how long this virus has been around. Suspicious pneumonia cases were around in Italy in late November.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-emergence-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D2IG

The mystery then becomes, why did it go undetected for so long.

Those earlier pneumonia cases could be something entirely different as well, for example 2018
https://www.thelocal.it/20180909/150-pneumonia-cases-spark-health-alert-in-north-italy
It definitely wasn't covid19 back then!

From what I remember him saying from multiple segments, he first used R2.5 as a number, this was based on multiple studies showing the R number will be between 2.3-2.7 if society does nothing. Then he changed the R number to 1.6 on march 16 as our government gave guidelines/recommendation to people and companies. He also talked about hospital, he said something about how fast people coming in and out from the hospital. The last I heard him saying is using daily dead. Those are the 3 numbers I heard him using, some kind of hospital number, daily dead and R number. But as Forest-spirit mention, he recently reduced the infection spread a bit as the daily dead number didn't increase at the rate he thought it would.

And Stockholm metro has 2.3 million people not 1 Million, you can see this on his chart here on TV.

last92 said:

Why not? Wearing a mask is just a minor inconvenience and it can help stop the spread and ultimately save lives. 

I don't think it helps, it seems to be more of a culture thing. Even before this virus I would sometimes see asian people wearing a face mask, it makes no sense to me.

There are several perfectly legitimate reasons to wear face masks.  The main one is to prevent spreading illness by sneezing or coughing on things when you have a cold.  Which I think is quite courteous.