Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 85 48.02%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 28.25%
 
No, its being overblown 42 23.73%
 
Total:177
NightlyPoe said:

That... would end up being a complete waste of time, effort, and material for little gain.  The United States, along with most industrialized nations, have plenty of excess industrial capacity to meet the needs of this many times over once the appropriate sectors get scaled up.  Creating protective gear and a couple hundred thousand ventilators is hardly an undertaking requiring the level of industrial muscle flexing as invading Europe.

Within a matter of months, the shortages will disappear and the materials will be exported around the world without controversy.  The issue is that we need it now, not in a couple of months and it simply takes time to get things up and running.

We don't have spare months for the market economy to voluntarily scale up production of medical necessities and hospital construction. In "a matter of months", there will have been millions of Americans infected and God knows how many deaths. This is the most serious pandemic we've faced in a century. Covid-19 is already the third leading cause of death in America and is expected to bypass the daily death toll of cancer and heart disease to become #1 by the middle of the month. The only way to prevent a bloodbath of millions in this country is to get serious right now. The market economy has not and will not deliver the necessary results in a timely manner.

This, a genuine crisis, is no time for multicultural individualism. At a time like this, relying on markets and self-help will literally kill us. It is time for the establishment of a national culture to meet this crisis head-on. Only with that can we make it out of this alive, as in without millions of deaths.



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Jaicee said:
NightlyPoe said:

That... would end up being a complete waste of time, effort, and material for little gain.  The United States, along with most industrialized nations, have plenty of excess industrial capacity to meet the needs of this many times over once the appropriate sectors get scaled up.  Creating protective gear and a couple hundred thousand ventilators is hardly an undertaking requiring the level of industrial muscle flexing as invading Europe.

Within a matter of months, the shortages will disappear and the materials will be exported around the world without controversy.  The issue is that we need it now, not in a couple of months and it simply takes time to get things up and running.

We don't have spare months for the market economy to voluntarily scale up production of medical necessities and hospital construction. In "a matter of months", there will have been millions of Americans infected and God knows how many deaths. This is the most serious pandemic we've faced in a century. Covid-19 is already the third leading cause of death in America and is expected to bypass the daily death toll of cancer and heart disease to become #1 by the middle of the month. The only way to prevent a bloodbath of millions in this country is to get serious right now. The market economy has not and will not deliver the necessary results in a timely manner.

This, a genuine crisis, is no time for multicultural individualism. At a time like this, relying on markets and self-help will literally kill us. It is time for the establishment of a national culture to meet this crisis head-on. Only with that can we make it out of this alive, as in without millions of deaths.

I'm talking about logistics, not the market economy.  Given the overwhelming worldwide demand, market forces obviously aren't the problem.  We have plenty of willingness to make the products.  It's the time it takes to convert infrastructure to make the equipment.  No matter what a dictator might believe, you can't just wave a magic wand and everyone will be pumping out the equipment you need.  You think the automobile plants went from making cars to bombers overnight during WWII?  No, it took months just to get started and continued ramping up long afterwards.  You demand that some furniture manufacturer convert all their factories to produce masks and protective gowns and you won't get your first mask shipped until months after you really need it.

Properly done, we should be targeting the specific companies in the best position to ramp up production to the scale we need with as much speed as possible.  Which, I assume, is exactly what everyone is doing.



China is not longer in the top 5 as Germany and France have also surpassed her.



Chicho said:

China is not longer in the top 5 as Germany and France have also surpassed her.

You actually believe the numbers coming out of China? hahahaha.

"NO2 amounts have dropped with the coronavirus quarantine, Chinese New Year, and a related economic slowdown."

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china



Average growth update up to and including Friday (using Saturday's numbers)
First grapth is the average growth per day, second graph the average reported deaths.

Thanks to the major corrections France got this week in both total cases and reported deaths, France took the lead in both. France should drop down back to its previous level of growth soon though. The reported cases spike was only one day, however the change in reported deaths has raised the daily updates three days in a row. France looked like it was reaching the growth peak, the corrections have temporarily changed its course but France should return to a level and likely downward slope next week.

Italy continues declining and is now behind France, Spain and Germany in newly reported cases per day and will be sinking below UK reported daily cases levels next. Germany and Spain have peaked as well, however Gemany's average death count is still slowly going up while Spain is slowly starting to coming down.

Except for Denmark all the countries displayed there seem to have peaked, although Sweden could still be a temporary change of direction. Austria has gotten off the lightest, whatever they did worked the best. Austria's daily reported cases are dropping the fastest and their reported deaths are also already coming down.


Europe as a whole is still climbing, thanks to France's corrections and Turkey quickly becoming a major player, just entering the Top 10 now in total cases catching up to the UK, already passed Switzerland. The USA is still growing faster than Europe but fell back a little bit to 8.28 days behind Europe (from 8.20)
Compared to a week ago, the USA went down, from 1.153x to 1.090x and Europe from 1.106 to 1.071. That doesn't seem much but is already a difference in 1585 new cases for the next day at the current growth in Europe, 18.5K difference over a week.



Canada is showing signs of slowing down as well. The top 4 provinces have the majority of the cases. Quebec is in the lead for total cases and current growth with 6997 total cases. Ontario is second with 3630 total cases, yet has a higher death count so far. Ontario is still behind detecting cases, so the current slight decline in growth can not be seen as reaching the peak yet. Measures here have been sharpened again with another provincial alert to stay at home.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-outdoor-physical-distancing-1.5518998
In Toronto's bid to stop the spread of COVID-19, city officials announced a new bylaw Thursday that prohibits people from standing within two metres of each other in some parts of the city — and failing to comply could mean a fine of up to $5,000.

Ontario predicts 3000 to 15000 fatalities and being stuck with this virus for a year to 18 months :/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575

Provincial health experts say they expect COVID-19 could kill 3,000 to 15,000 people in Ontario over the course of the coronavirus pandemic, the ramifications of which could last up to two years.

He did not suggest current restrictions will be in place for that period of time, but later added "we are some way off" from lifting physical distancing policies, especially in densely populated areas like the GTA.

Decisions to ease physical distancing measures will need to be driven by "complicated modelling and science," he said, and done in a "thoughtful" way.


British Columbia follows with 1203 total cases and has already started to decline. Alberta is in 4th with 1181 total cases, is slowing a bet but will probably pass British Columbia soon. In daily growth Alberta is currently double that of British Columbia. However the numbers are still small, +46 a day for BC, +103 a day for Alberta.



Ontario has its homework done at least and is now carefully fine tuning counter measures

ICU capacity needs to be increased by 900 (from 410), seems very doable. And so far 4,400 deaths have already been prevented. (by April 30th)

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 05 April 2020

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NightlyPoe said:
RolStoppable said:

I didn't mean it as an all or nothing in terms of trade. Globalization has made countries reliant on each other and during this time of crisis where countries are locking themselves down and are consequently on their own for the most part, it begins to show that said reliance was maybe not such a good idea as it seemed. Producing meds and other things in China etc. may be cheaper, but it also makes the supply chains much more vulnerable.

Finding a happy medium between globalization and local production would not only provide more stability during times of extraordinary circumstances, but also create more jobs on a permanent basis. The corona crisis is something that gets more people to think about if the cheapest option is always the best, so the governing political parties are actually granted an opportunity to make changes without having to fear to lose votes in the next election.

Here's some irony.  I think you just expressed the closest thing Donald Trump has to a consistent political and economic philosophy.

I suppose you consider it irony because you assume that I have to be 100% against everything Donald Trump does.

The idea to keep money circulating in the country that it's spent in is good, but there are different ways to go about it. Trump engaging in trade wars with multiple trading blocks at once was definitely not the right path because it sent down the stock market and created a lot of uncertainty. A continuous strategy of raising tariffs by a small percentage every year over the course of a decade to allow companies to prepare for a changing marketplace would be a lot more sensible than dropping the hammer of an immediate 25% raise to show off without having a real long term strategy.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

An elderly couple from my church got the virus and are in the ICU. :-c



NightlyPoe said:
Jaicee said:

We don't have spare months for the market economy to voluntarily scale up production of medical necessities and hospital construction. In "a matter of months", there will have been millions of Americans infected and God knows how many deaths. This is the most serious pandemic we've faced in a century. Covid-19 is already the third leading cause of death in America and is expected to bypass the daily death toll of cancer and heart disease to become #1 by the middle of the month. The only way to prevent a bloodbath of millions in this country is to get serious right now. The market economy has not and will not deliver the necessary results in a timely manner.

This, a genuine crisis, is no time for multicultural individualism. At a time like this, relying on markets and self-help will literally kill us. It is time for the establishment of a national culture to meet this crisis head-on. Only with that can we make it out of this alive, as in without millions of deaths.

Properly done, we should be targeting the specific companies in the best position to ramp up production to the scale we need with as much speed as possible.  Which, I assume, is exactly what everyone is doing.

I agree with NightlyPoe on the production side.  What not being done that should of been done from the start is nationalizing the Supply chain.  It ridiculous that every state is out there trying to buy equipment and competing with each other.  The Federal government should of figured out everything available and then put the correct general or admiral in charge of making sure the equipment get to the locations that need it most base on best available data.  Something that Military can do quite well and have a lot of experience doing around the world.

Also supplies within the USA can be moved from place to place quite quickly.  If am willing to pay enough I could have something over nighted from west coast to east coast. 

I bring this up to point out that for example at it peak new York might need 150k ventilators and Florida 100k but there peaks wont be at the same time.  You can put a quartermaster at every hospital in USA monitoring demand.  So if you see New York demand start going down and Florida going up you can quickly move the ventilators no longer being used in New York to Florida.  You can do this nation wide.

Right now you may have states offering to help other state but this is a horrible inefficient way to move around resources and should be done at the national level.  Supply should be driven by where those supplies can save the most lives at any given time and not by which state can negotiate the best for supplies.

This is logistics 101 stuff.  It would be 1000% times easier with proper testing so we had the data to pin point exactly where stuff should go but even without we could be doing way better then we are with putting the correct people in charge of supply chain management.  As we currently stand there probably location with excess supply and places with way to few.  A state with excess not going to offer it to other states because they know eventually it could get bad in there state and they will need it.  If you nationalize the supply chain with competent people in charge you can take the supplies to places that need it now and the state you taking it from could feel safe when the times comes that they need it the supplies will be moved there.



Interesting how Sunday's always seem to be very slow across the board, compared to the other days.



Cyran said:
NightlyPoe said:

Properly done, we should be targeting the specific companies in the best position to ramp up production to the scale we need with as much speed as possible.  Which, I assume, is exactly what everyone is doing.

I agree with NightlyPoe on the production side.  What not being done that should of been done from the start is nationalizing the Supply chain.  It ridiculous that every state is out there trying to buy equipment and competing with each other.  The Federal government should of figured out everything available and then put the correct general or admiral in charge of making sure the equipment get to the locations that need it most base on best available data.  Something that Military can do quite well and have a lot of experience doing around the world.

Also supplies within the USA can be moved from place to place quite quickly.  If am willing to pay enough I could have something over nighted from west coast to east coast. 

I bring this up to point out that for example at it peak new York might need 150k ventilators and Florida 100k but there peaks wont be at the same time.  You can put a quartermaster at every hospital in USA monitoring demand.  So if you see New York demand start going down and Florida going up you can quickly move the ventilators no longer being used in New York to Florida.  You can do this nation wide.

Right now you may have states offering to help other state but this is a horrible inefficient way to move around resources and should be done at the national level.  Supply should be driven by where those supplies can save the most lives at any given time and not by which state can negotiate the best for supplies.

This is logistics 101 stuff.  It would be 1000% times easier with proper testing so we had the data to pin point exactly where stuff should go but even without we could be doing way better then we are with putting the correct people in charge of supply chain management.  As we currently stand there probably location with excess supply and places with way to few.  A state with excess not going to offer it to other states because they know eventually it could get bad in there state and they will need it.  If you nationalize the supply chain with competent people in charge you can take the supplies to places that need it now and the state you taking it from could feel safe when the times comes that they need it the supplies will be moved there.

In theory, I don't disagree. However, I think that the administration is acknowledging the inefficiencies of the federal government itself. They feel more confident about being a backstop than controlling the whole supply chain. You can see in examples such as the whole testing snafu at the start that the federal government is good at tripping itself up. As for moving equipment around with flexibility, watching the daily presidential briefings, that is a part of their plan.

Also, for what it's worth, New York is never going to have 150,000 people hooked up to ventilators at the same time or anything even approaching that. Some of these big numbers are pretty crazy even in a worst-case scenario. Even the 40,000 Cuomo said he needed last week is way too high.

Edit: Just to give some data to that last statement. As of this morning, New York had 16,479 hospitalized and 4,376 patients in their ICUs total (I assume due to the virus) according to Cuomo's briefing. Presumably, people on ventilators makes up some percentage of the ICU patients.

Given that we're approaching the peak for New York, the ventilator crisis in that state seems vastly overblown. Last edited by NightlyPoe - on 05 April 2020