| John2290 said: Why won't Italies new cases come down? Anyone got a graph for northern Italy alone? Lombardy or even just Milan? |
The are coming down, but it's a long way down and the fall and rise due to weekend reporting interfering can make it seem it goes back up again every week. Also since there are many more undetected cases, more and more mild cases will be detected as a percentage of the increased testing capacity.
Italy is current at 26,977 reported deaths. Fatality ratios estimates are between 1% and 3.2%, thus cases should be between 940K and 2.7 million. So far Italy has reported just shy of 200K cases. Many will never be detected (or only with anti body tests since the the disease is done already) but there are still plenty milder cases around to detect.
Week over week progression:
Counted by lock down date, daily reported cases
Week -2 5.53x over week 1.280x daily increase (testing ramped up)
Week -1 3.96x over week 1.217x daily increase
Week 0 2.27x over week 1.125x daily increase (Lock down at start of this week)
Week 1 1.64x over week 1.073x daily increase
Week 2 0.90x over week 0.985x daily decline (14 days since lock down at start of this week)
Week 3 0.83x over week 0.975x daily decline
Week 4 0.94x over week 0.991x daily decline
Week 5 0.74x over week 0.957x daily decline
Week 6 0.73x over week 0.956x daily decline
Compared with daily reported deaths
Week -2 5x over week (from 2 to 10 deaths daily)
Week -1 8.9x over week (from 10 to 89 deaths daily)
Week 0 3.33x over week 1.188x daily increase (lock down start of this week)
Week 1 2.30x over week 1.126x daily increase
Week 2 1.20x over week 1.026x daily increase
Week 3 0.75x over week 0.960x daily decline (21 days since lock down at start of this week)
Week 4 0.88x over week 0.982x daily decline
Week 5 0.85x over week 0.976x daily decline
Week 6 0.74x over week 0.957x daily decline
The higher the peak, the longer it takes to come back down. Higher peak also means more uncounted cases and deaths to find later.
