I've been looking at the cyclic growth patterns in the data. It's hard to tell it's an effect from people being more social in the weekend causing growth to go up 5 days later (average incubation time) or if it's just human (in)efficiency in weekend testing / reporting.
What this shows is the average 5 day growth plotted from 4 different countries. Left side is the reported cases, right side the reported deaths.
The grey 'zones' are the weekends. 1.2 on the scale means, the cases for a certain day were on average 1.2 times higher than the cases on the day prior.
Germany and Italy have the most reliable reporting, Germany for efficiency, Italy for dealing with it the longest. The wave effect is very clear in the data from Italy. On average it's clear Italy has peaked and is now mostly underneath the 1.0 line. Also the reported deaths on the right side are now consistently under the 1.0 line, thus decreasing daily. I moved Italy one spot to the left since they announce their numbers early, so most likely for the previous day, while others keep adding up through the day. (Italy has already finalized their numbers for today, last point on the graph is April 1st)
Germany has a bigger amplitude in its wave, more extensive testing, more variability? Spain follows nicely and has peaked as well, average growth is now below the 1.0 line. The USA comes in hot from ramping up testing but seems to fall into the same wave pattern. France is messy, still mostly follows the pattern yet today's numbers will totally screw it up:
7788 new cases and 1053 new deaths in France. On April 3rd the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously. On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.
Many countries keep changing count. I've gone through Canada's data this morning and there the same thing although with much lower numbers. For example suddenly 25 extra deaths, includes 20 deaths now confirmed from nursing homes over the past week(s).
The deaths not neatly lining up could mean it's just human reporting that causes the cyclic effects in case reporting and not a surge in infections. However deaths are far fewer, a lot not confirmed to be caused by covid19 until much later, deaths are counted differently per country, and now and then corrected. The variance in how long from infection to death is also greater than from infection to showing symptoms.
I'm inclined to say it's reporting that (mostly) causes the variances. If people would infect each other more on weekends, the peaks should be with Friday's reported numbers. However the peaks seem to be on Tuesday's, as if missed cases from weekends get added. So whatever gets reported on Tuesdays is likely too high, what's reported in the weekend is likely too low.
The great news: The measures are working very well, on average everything is sloping downwards.