Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

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I've been looking at the cyclic growth patterns in the data. It's hard to tell it's an effect from people being more social in the weekend causing growth to go up 5 days later (average incubation time) or if it's just human (in)efficiency in weekend testing / reporting.

What this shows is the average 5 day growth plotted from 4 different countries. Left side is the reported cases, right side the reported deaths.

The grey 'zones' are the weekends. 1.2 on the scale means, the cases for a certain day were on average 1.2 times higher than the cases on the day prior.

Germany and Italy have the most reliable reporting, Germany for efficiency, Italy for dealing with it the longest. The wave effect is very clear in the data from Italy. On average it's clear Italy has peaked and is now mostly underneath the 1.0 line. Also the reported deaths on the right side are now consistently under the 1.0 line, thus decreasing daily. I moved Italy one spot to the left since they announce their numbers early, so most likely for the previous day, while others keep adding up through the day. (Italy has already finalized their numbers for today, last point on the graph is April 1st)

Germany has a bigger amplitude in its wave, more extensive testing, more variability? Spain follows nicely and has peaked as well, average growth is now below the 1.0 line. The USA comes in hot from ramping up testing but seems to fall into the same wave pattern. France is messy, still mostly follows the pattern yet today's numbers will totally screw it up:

7788 new cases and 1053 new deaths in France. On April 3rd the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously. On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

Many countries keep changing count. I've gone through Canada's data this morning and there the same thing although with much lower numbers. For example suddenly 25 extra deaths, includes 20 deaths now confirmed from nursing homes over the past week(s).


The deaths not neatly lining up could mean it's just human reporting that causes the cyclic effects in case reporting and not a surge in infections. However deaths are far fewer, a lot not confirmed to be caused by covid19 until much later, deaths are counted differently per country, and now and then corrected. The variance in how long from infection to death is also greater than from infection to showing symptoms.

I'm inclined to say it's reporting that (mostly) causes the variances. If people would infect each other more on weekends, the peaks should be with Friday's reported numbers. However the peaks seem to be on Tuesday's, as if missed cases from weekends get added. So whatever gets reported on Tuesdays is likely too high, what's reported in the weekend is likely too low.


The great news: The measures are working very well, on average everything is sloping downwards.



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JRPGfan said:
newwil7l said:

France has its third day in a row with over a thousand new deaths. It's very clear this isn't a fluke unfortunately, and it's looking like France will ultimately be the hardest hit country on the globe for its size if things keep up.

They changed how they "count" confirmed cases & deaths.
Thats why you saw them have +23,000 confirmed cases yesterday.
And why deaths jumped so much, they are adding in cases of deaths from many days ago, as they confirm they are from covid-19.

Also they started counting deaths at nurseing homes, homes, ect outsides of just hospitals, if they suspect it was from covid19.

Alot of countries dont do this yet.
So things in france arnt as bad s they might seem... its just alot of other countries arnt counting cases/deaths like this.



Edit:

Think of it this way Newwil7L

New York State = ~20 million people  (new york has 114,000 cases, and 3600 deaths)
France = 67 million people  (france has 89,000 cases, and 7500 deaths)

Now, france is atleast 4 days ahead of New York State, in terms of the outbreak.
So imagine were New York will be 4 days from now? (when compaired to france today)

I know a state in the US =/= a country in europe, even if size/populations sometimes get close.

In terms of population, new york outbreak is much worse than Frances.
Plus I doubt the "deaths" in the US are counted the same way france does.
(ei. "real" numbers in the US are probably higher than ones shown)

Yeah, it's like France is doing exactly the inverse of the UK right now



I'm fairly certain deaths in the US count people outside of hospitals as well, but I haven't seen a source to prove that or the contrary yet. I'll do some digging.



I'll just leave this series of videos with statistics to the coronavirus and how it is in context to other diseases here, very informative.

Situation at February 12

Update until March 19

Most recent update, April second



newwil7l said:
I'm fairly certain deaths in the US count people outside of hospitals as well, but I haven't seen a source to prove that or the contrary yet. I'll do some digging.

With how many can't afford healthcare in the US, it's pretty much guaranteed that a lot of people just stayed at home, or worse, continued to work because they couldn't afford not getting paid, I'd say it's pretty much guaranteed that at least some amount of people died outside hospitals in the US by now.

While we're talking about the US: The country has now officially passed the 300k mark in number of patients. Also, Spain has overtaken Italy in that regard, though really just by a hair.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 04 April 2020

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Singapore is going into lockdown for a month. They got done did, bought themselves a mere few weeks. We're always two to four weeks away from complete destruction from this thing, even flattening the curve or stamping it out and it's only a slight rest on the timing, it's like the human race is the protagonist in a horror film hiding feom the bad guy trying to buy time til the cops come. We got like 30 days at most before we get knifed repeatedly or we make it those 12-24 months depending on luck, for the vaccine to be approved. We're so fucked.

Anyone wanna take bets on who is the first to go to war? discounting the Venezuelan joke.



 

China Numba wan!!

Immersiveunreality said:
S.Peelman said:
In the Netherlands we seem to be getting on top of things. New deaths seem to be hitting a ceiling with a similar amount for about a week now, new cases are slowly getting less each day and most importantly new hospital admissions are on a pretty sharp decline for a while now.

And more shops in the Netherlands stay open compared to Belgium,with the right distancing and desinfection it can be handled for the shops with enough space.

Yeah. It seems like what we’ve been doing is adequate enough. But still, need to be careful. I just hope the June deadline isn’t extended, I have something I want to do this summer.



Well if I were dictator of the United States, what I'd do is, instead of paying all these massive businesses in non-essential fields to exist and not do anything during this time, I'd activate the Defense Production Act and have the government seize control of the means of production and redirect all non-essential production (essential production being that of stuff like food and such) to health care products like ventilators, masks, new hospital construction, vaccine research and development, that sort of thing. Whatever can be applied. Everything that's not a basic household staple becomes health care. And since it's being done by the government itself rather than on government orders, production would be streamlined and distributed according to actual need. None of this shit like you see now where the federal government producing masks and giving them to the private sector to then RE-sell to state governments at higher prices in bidding wars! Also, there would be a NATIONWIDE lockdown put in place immediately, no exceptions (and no religious exemptions).

As even the Trump Administration has now conceded, covid-19 is, even in the best case scenario, going to kill more Americans than World War 2 did. Think about that. That's the magnitude of this crisis. It should be treated with, at bare minimum, a World War 2 scale response in terms of social mobilization. Production for exchange has no role under these circumstances. It can only impede the efficient resolve of this crisis. Production for exchange MUST be replaced with production for use if we are to prevent millions from dying in this country alone. That's my take on what should be done.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 04 April 2020

RolStoppable said:
John2290 said:

That brings new problems like no economically deterrent against war. There'll be lots of and lots of war before things get better. I hope no asshole country doesn't go off on one and create a war economy as a last resort, that'll be fun. 

I didn't mean it as an all or nothing in terms of trade. Globalization has made countries reliant on each other and during this time of crisis where countries are locking themselves down and are consequently on their own for the most part, it begins to show that said reliance was maybe not such a good idea as it seemed. Producing meds and other things in China etc. may be cheaper, but it also makes the supply chains much more vulnerable.

Finding a happy medium between globalization and local production would not only provide more stability during times of extraordinary circumstances, but also create more jobs on a permanent basis. The corona crisis is something that gets more people to think about if the cheapest option is always the best, so the governing political parties are actually granted an opportunity to make changes without having to fear to lose votes in the next election.

Here's some irony.  I think you just expressed the closest thing Donald Trump has to a consistent political and economic philosophy.



Jaicee said:

Well if I were dictator of the United States, what I'd do is, instead of paying all these massive businesses in non-essential fields to exist and not do anything during this time, I'd activate the Defense Production Act and have the government seize control of the means of production and redirect all non-essential production (essential production being that of stuff like food and such) to health care products like ventilators, masks, new hospital construction, vaccine research and development, that sort of thing. Whatever can be applied. Everything that's not a basic household staple becomes health care. And since it's being done by the government itself rather than on government orders, production would be streamlined and distributed according to actual need. None of this shit like you see now where the federal government producing masks and giving them to the private sector to then RE-sell to state governments at higher prices in bidding wars! Also, there would be a NATIONWIDE lockdown put in place immediately, no exceptions (and no religious exemptions).

As even the Trump Administration has now conceded, covid-19 is, even in the best case scenario, going to kill more Americans than World War 2 did. Think about that. That's the magnitude of this crisis. It should be treated with, at bare minimum, a World War 2 scale response in terms of social mobilization. Production for exchange has no role under these circumstances. It can only impede the efficient resolve of this crisis. Production for exchange MUST be replaced with production for use if we are to prevent millions from dying in this country alone. That's my take on what should be done.

That... would end up being a complete waste of time, effort, and material for little gain.  The United States, along with most industrialized nations, have plenty of excess industrial capacity to meet the needs of this many times over once the appropriate sectors get scaled up.  Creating protective gear and a couple hundred thousand ventilators is hardly an undertaking requiring the level of industrial muscle flexing as invading Europe.

Within a matter of months, the shortages will disappear and the materials will be exported around the world without controversy.  The issue is that we need it now, not in a couple of months and it simply takes time to get things up and running.