Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[JWeinCom]

Trumpstyle said:

SvennoJ said:

Those corrected graphs (adding deaths to the day they happened, not the day the were reported) are not accurate for the back end. When later deaths get identified they get added to past columns, so you can't say that April 15th looks like a peak, since the data for 17 to 26 is still very incomplete.

What you can tell is that the spread of the virus is indeed a lot slower in Sweden. I wonder what math he used to get to 30% infected by April 10th with a R0 of 1.6. That's about a doubling rate of 7.5 days, which that graph supports.

Taking 1 million population for Stockholm, 300k infected by April 10th, it would take 6 infected people in Stockholm on December 12th to pull that off. Even though the incubation period is variable, just like quantum mechanics, over plenty time these systems behave in a very predictable way.

I wonder what kind of math he used? But who knows how long this virus has been around. Suspicious pneumonia cases were around in Italy in late November.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-emergence-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D2IG

The mystery then becomes, why did it go undetected for so long.

Those earlier pneumonia cases could be something entirely different as well, for example 2018
https://www.thelocal.it/20180909/150-pneumonia-cases-spark-health-alert-in-north-italy
It definitely wasn't covid19 back then!

From what I remember him saying from multiple segments, he first used R2.5 as a number, this was based on multiple studies showing the R number will be between 2.3-2.7 if society does nothing. Then he changed the R number to 1.6 on march 16 as our government gave guidelines/recommendation to people and companies. He also talked about hospital, he said something about how fast people coming in and out from the hospital. The last I heard him saying is using daily dead. Those are the 3 numbers I heard him using, some kind of hospital number, daily dead and R number. But as Forest-spirit mention, he recently reduced the infection spread a bit as the daily dead number didn't increase at the rate he thought it would.

And Stockholm metro has 2.3 million people not 1 Million, you can see this on his chart here on TV.

last92 said:

Why not? Wearing a mask is just a minor inconvenience and it can help stop the spread and ultimately save lives. 

I don't think it helps, it seems to be more of a culture thing. Even before this virus I would sometimes see asian people wearing a face mask, it makes no sense to me.

There are several perfectly legitimate reasons to wear face masks.  The main one is to prevent spreading illness by sneezing or coughing on things when you have a cold.  Which I think is quite courteous.