The death toll in Lombardy currently is 12376
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099389/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/
The population in Lombardy is 10.06 million, thus so far covid19 has killed 0.123% of the population there.

There are 66,971 reported cases in Lombardy
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-cases.html#states
That gives us a current death rate of 1.84% (deaths / detected) but missed cases, uncounted deaths, deaths lag 20 days behind and all that.

Wuhan has 11 million people and China has reported 4642 deaths in total and 67,803 detected cases in Hubei province.
The total deaths in China is only 33% of the deaths in Lombardy so far. So how can Wuhan have herd immunity while Lombardy is still going?
China's numbers can be all wrong of course.

So let's play around with the detected cases numbers for Lombardy.
10x undetected makes it 670K total cases atm, with 0.184% mortality rate and 6.3% of the population infected.
40x undetected makes it 2.68 million total cases atm, with 0.046% mortality rate and 27% of the population infected.
100x undetected makes it 6.7 million total cases atm, with 0.018% mortality rate and 67% of the population infected.

It's useless, either Lombardy has achieved herd immunity or it can still get 10x worse.
Sweden is taking a huge gamble not backed up by any reasonable math. Evidence based on small scale tests, bias, flaws and uncounted deaths all leading to huge error margins.

One mile stone was finally reached in Italy on Sunday, it looks like the active cases have peaked at 108,257, 36 days after lock down, 24 days after the growth peak. China reached that 13 days after the growth peak. The big question, is it because of declaring recoveries differently, or does a higher growth peak mean a much slower decline, or is it because of a much less strict lock down.

I don't know, Giesecke sounds overly optimistic to me. And I'm pretty sure it's Stockholm specifically that might be heading towards herd immunity, not the country as a whole, and it's probably based on a recent blood test where 11 out of 100 tested persons had antibodies against the virus. Could be a good sign but it's not enough to draw any conclusions from.

Is claiming Wuhan has herd immunity based on ... belief(?) now evidence based medicine? Seems not very evidence based at all.

Also, the spanish flu was one of the deadliest pandemics of all time, a death rate similar to that would be devastating.

11 out of 100 ??? That's what he's advising the country on what to do. And I thought Trump was irresponsible.

Well they did 2 tests with blood donors, so at least that's a sample size of a whole 200!

There are almost 1 million people in Stockholm.

With a R0 of 2.2 it takes about 3 months to get herd immunity, that's if it has already been spreading uncontrolled in Stockholm before the end of Januari.
Sweden detected its first case on Februari 15th, so closer to an R0 of 3.0 to get close to herd immunity by now.
Meanwhile the lower population density suggests a lower R0 for Stockholm, not a higher one. Why didn't Lombardy reach it already.

First covid19 deaths in Sweden were reported on March 14th, nearly 2 months after it should supposedly already have been rampantly spreading to get near herd immunity now. (Februari 21st first reported death in Intaly) Things don't add up.

ah right, the famously harmless 1918-1920 H1N1 pandemic, misleadingly called the "spanish illness/flu", which only killed up to 50 million people world wide

yea, you know, that's a scenario ppl wanted to avoid

nothing sounds more "evidence based" than "he believes" - your dudes are also using math models, they just put in more optimistic values

Giesecke is no longer working as an advisor for our country (he's currently working for WHO so RIP those guys I guess) and it was just a guess of mine that this optimism and talk of herd immunity is driven by the results of those two tests.

For stockholm there are 2.3 million people if you count metro.

As for the test, our CDC (folkhälsomyndigheten) estimate there's 20-30% infected right now in stockholm based on that test. Something about the test is 1 week old and it's only has 70-80% accuracy but gives no false positives, some other minor stuff too.

Source: https://www.svtplay.se/video/24741154/aktuellt/aktuellt-20-apr-21-00-3 (05:40, swedish only)

Are you sure you aren't mixing things up? The Ministry of Health and Public Affairs (Folkhälsomyndigheten) released a report today predicting that 32% of Stockholm are/have been infected by the first day of May. But the data used in that report is from a study made between 27 March and 3 April where 707 people were tested.

As for the clip you posted, just to be clear, Jan Albert and Tom Britton are not from the Ministry of Health and Public Affairs.

Jan Albert is from Karolinska University Hospital and worked with the before mentioned test where 11 out of 100 test subjects were infected, and that's the test from which I suppose you got the 70-80% accuracy number from. This test is not to be confused with the report from the Ministry of Health and Public Affairs.

Tom Britton is a professor in mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, who estimates that 30% of the population of Stockholm has already been infected at some point.

Primary schools and child daycare in The Netherlands will reopen on 11 May.
Sports for children under 12 can resume, though no league matches, and sports for under 18 can resume if they can conform to the 1.5m rule.
Restaurants, bars, museums, zoos, theme parks and everything (except shops, those never closed) will remain closed until 20 May at least.
Events will be cancelled until 1 September at least so that means no Kingsday, Liberation Day, concerts, festivals, Vierdaagse and football matches.

People expected more, but I think they’re just waiting to see what’ll happen in Scandinavia and Austria.

You're contradicting yourself. If China is becoming more self sufficient by people pulling out then what will they gain from war? How will that war look like? Will they just hop over to Japan and take stuff? Why?

If anyone actually believes he can unify the world then that person is probably not in politics right now. China can't even keep a tiny nation like Taiwan from revolting and you think they're gonna go to war with other nations?

China's government are total assholes, but if they have shown anything in the past decades it's that they're not idiots. Only idiots go to war.