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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

The_Yoda said:
Pemalite said:

The Flu vaccine no longer protects against just one strain, but a multitude of strains, that takes out a chunk of guess work in trying to work out Northern/Southern Hemisphere trends and projecting that onto the next Flu Season.

Multitude is a little misleading 3 or 4 strains (2 respiratory & 2 stomach typically) isn't how I personally would define a multitude.

I would. Either way it's just semantics.






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KiigelHeart said:
Lafiel said:

in very serious cases SARS-CoV-2 has been observed to attack organs other then the lungs, including the heart aswell - while the state of emergency certainly contributes to the increase in cases, it can't reasonably explain a ten fold increase like shown in NYC

btw ppl not going to hospitals out of fear (usually fear of financial ruin) is part of how the system works in the us

It's not a ten fold increase though. I agree it doesn't explain all of the increase, but it would still be misleading to report all of them as COVID-19 deaths.

Serious cases should be treated at a hospital. Paints a sad picture of US healthcare system if people stay home while suffering such bad symptoms. 

hmmm close enough? 

read this:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/scores-of-probable-coronavirus-deaths-are-not-being-counted-by-the-city/

JRPGfan said:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/scores-of-probable-coronavirus-deaths-are-not-being-counted-by-the-city/

“Out of the 12 [cardiac cases], I did on Sunday 10 had COVID symptoms. Flu-like symptoms, cough, etc. Nobody made it back. That’s going on all over the city,” said Anthony Almojera, vice president of FDNY, EMS union local 3621.

“There’s gotta be 200 a day… obviously are not all COVID, but they aren’t being tested,” he said.

The FDNY confirmed that paramedics are seeing more than 300 calls for cardiac arrest with “well over” 200 people dying each day. Typically paramedics would deal with around two dozen deaths on around 54 to 74 cardiac arrest calls.

So normally theres ~50-75 calls for cardiac arrests, calls each day. Out of these ~24 or so die.
Now they have 300+ calls each day, and over 200 pr day dieing? and its not noted as due to Coronavirus.

"New York City’s death toll — which surged past 3,000 on Tuesday — only includes the number of confirmed cases. The city does not test people for the disease after they’ve died — even if they end up in the Medical Examiner’s Office after fighting coronavirus-like symptoms."

Number of deaths due to this thing is being under reported by alot.

If you go from a "normal" avg of ~24 deaths due to heart attacks pr day.
To suddenly haveing 200+ every day.

Thats basically a factor of 10.


Just a "odd" coincidence most of these happend to have Covid19 symptoms before haveing heart attacks? yet wheren't tested for it after they died.
Cause of death noted down = Cardiac arrest.


I would not be surprised if in the US, you guys arnt counting nurseing homes, hospice,... or home deaths, correctly, or to the same degree as most european countries have.  Basically there could be twice as many deaths due to covid19 in the USA right now, as worldometers.info shows, and I wouldn't even be surprised.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 21 April 2020

The rise of cases in Russia is keeping the daily reported cases in Europe above that of the USA despite most countries being on a decline.

On average Russia is now responsible for 20% of the daily reported cases in Europe. An overview of the largest contributors
Russia: 20.0%
UK: 18.5%
Spain: 12.2%
Italy: 10.0%
France: 7.8%

Europe is still responsible for 36% of worldwide reported cases, the USA adds 35%, leaving 29% for the rest of the world, which is increasing now Europe and the USA have peaked. The daily reported cases worldwide currently aren't growing, yet the decline from Europe and the USA is filled up by rising numbers in other countries.

Canada is still going up a bit, maybe an after effect of people visiting each other during Easter, maybe just an effect of more testing since reported deaths do seem to have reached a peak. In my local county 3 new cases were reported today, up to 78 confirmed. The question is, does that number mask another 700 active cases or more. It would be great to know how infectious this virus really is.



Trumpstyle said:
forest-spirit said:

Are you sure you aren't mixing things up? The Ministry of Health and Public Affairs (Folkhälsomyndigheten) released a report today predicting that 32% of Stockholm are/have been infected by the first day of May. But the data used in that report is from a study made between 27 March and 3 April where 707 people were tested.

As for the clip you posted, just to be clear, Jan Albert and Tom Britton are not from the Ministry of Health and Public Affairs.

Jan Albert is from Karolinska University Hospital and worked with the before mentioned test where 11 out of 100 test subjects were infected, and that's the test from which I suppose you got the 70-80% accuracy number from. This test is not to be confused with the report from the Ministry of Health and Public Affairs.

Tom Britton is a professor in mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, who estimates that 30% of the population of Stockholm has already been infected at some point.

Yep you're right on both count, I thought Jan Albert worked at our CDC (folkhälsomyndigheten) but he does not and our CDC is predicting by 1 may a third of Stockholm will be infected by the covid virus.

I didn't mention Tom britton, he think 25-40% of Stockholm right now is infected.  
(tom britton sounds stupid (in interviews), what he says goes against basically what everyone else says, even your own "folkhälsomyndigheten". So lets just ignore what hes saying) (its based on faulty data from a standford university study, to make a math model, that makes wrong asumptions from the start)

https://www.bt.dk/samfund/virusforskere-opbygning-af-flokimmunitet-er-tvivlsomt

^ in danish (but as a swede you should be able to read it, otherwise google translate)

"Immunity is currently suspected to only last upto 1-2 years."
"Gaining flock immunity could take as long as 5 years to reach"  - Astrid Iversen (professor of virology&immunity at Oxford University)


"Baseret på al den forskning, der findes om coronavirusser generelt, vil den ny coronavirus sandsynligvis følge samme mønster og give samme immunrespons, som coronavirusser i udgangspunktet gør, nemlig en ganske kortvarig beskyttende immunitet." - Astrid Iversen

(translation:  "Based on all research, there currently is on coronavirus's in general, this new coronavirus will likely follow the same paterns and give the same immuneresponces as other coronaviruses do, namely a relatively short lasting immunity" )


"Så antistofferne vil med al sandsynlighed være væk, inden vi har opnået flokimmunitet, siger hun til Berlingske." - Astrid Iversen

(translation: "so antibodies will with all likelyhood be gone, before we have reached meaningfull herd immunity, she says to Berlingske (newspaper)")


"Flokimmunitet vil medføre megen sygdom og død og kan med al sandsynlighed alligevel ikke lade sig gøre, siger Astrid Iversen."

(translation: "herd immunity, would result is alot of sickness and deaths and will in all likelyhood not even be possible, says Astrid Iversen" )


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlVU8XTLICI


WHO ~2-3% infected
Neatherlands bloodtesting ~3% infected.
(contradicts the standford university study data, which is likely faulty) (but which everyone uses in models to claim spread is more than it is)

Astrid Iversen actually believes spread isnt fast enough to reach 60%+ before your 1-2year immunity falls away.
Basically with social distanceing, and people not wanting to get this (and thus naturally trying to avoid getting it), it wont spread fast enough to reach herd immunity before you have people loseing immunity to it.

The "way" to get herd immunity, would be to basically force people to get infected then.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 21 April 2020

Pemalite said:
The_Yoda said:

Multitude is a little misleading 3 or 4 strains (2 respiratory & 2 stomach typically) isn't how I personally would define a multitude.

I would. Either way it's just semantics.




Semantics ... 3 or 4 is the same as "a large number" ... really?



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The death toll of one man's rampage in Nova Scotia now stands at 22, compared to 10 covid19 deaths there... The worst mass shooting in modern Canadian history. No clue yet what set him off but since he was wearing a police uniform and had made his car look like a police car, definitely well planned. It was also a 100km rampage leaving 16 crime scenes behind before he got shot in a standoff with police.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/portapique-shooting-memorials-april-21-1.5539894

I wonder if the doom and gloom or lock down from the corona virus set him off. Around the world crime rates are dropping since the lock downs:
https://time.com/5819507/crime-drop-coronavirus/
Yet I suspect domestic violence got worse.



vivster said:
Barozi said:
We're a few days past Easter so I guess numbers should be more or less accurate again.
Lockdown seems to have worked quite well in Germany as new infections have decreased quite a bit.



Peak was at the beginning of April. Also about 66% have recovered. Will be interesting to see what effect the lifting of some of the restrictions will have. Probably not that much considering they were rather minor.

We won't see the effects of Easter until later with incubation time and all.

That's not what I was trying to say. We've reached a point where testing capacity is back on track and all tests that were made during Easter (and the WE after that) have been added to the tally.



chakkra said:
vivster said:

You're contradicting yourself. If China is becoming more self sufficient by people pulling out then what will they gain from war? How will that war look like? Will they just hop over to Japan and take stuff? Why?

If anyone actually believes he can unify the world then that person is probably not in politics right now. China can't even keep a tiny nation like Taiwan from revolting and you think they're gonna go to war with other nations?

China's government are total assholes, but if they have shown anything in the past decades it's that they're not idiots. Only idiots go to war.

I'm seriously concerned about what Trump might do after all of this is over. I suspect that he has been looking for an excuse to attack China for a long time now. I just hope the other segments of U.S. government are strong enough to stop him.

People in his government so far have done a great job at keeping him on a leash. If it comes to something as serious as starting an actual war they'll oppose him even stronger. Trump is a pussy and he doesn't like to push past resistance, so he'll just drop it and go golfing.

KiigelHeart said:
vivster said:
Still don't like how heavily under reported US deaths are. People are dying at home in the thousands.

How can they be sure which deaths are caused by corona? Lockdown and hysteria will also kill people.

Here in Finland, doctors are worried that many severely ill people aren't going to the hospitals anymore. 30% less people have gone to cardiologists for example. They're afraid to catch corona but end up being at for greater risk staying at home.

I'd expect this has been far worse in US past month with all the panic. And there was been much more people dying by heart failures...

The panic isn't even close to being as much as causing a multitude of additional heart failures. They're diagnosed as such because they're not tested for anything else. You know what else makes your heart stop beating? Not being able to breath.

Since the US has a vested interest to cover up COVID19 deaths I doubt we'll ever get any accurate numbers before the year is over and we get a tally of total deaths. Of all the western countries the US should not only have the most COVID19 deaths but also by far the most deaths caused indirectly due to people not getting the care they need.



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SvennoJ said:
The death toll of one man's rampage in Nova Scotia now stands at 22, compared to 10 covid19 deaths there... The worst mass shooting in modern Canadian history. No clue yet what set him off but since he was wearing a police uniform and had made his car look like a police car, definitely well planned. It was also a 100km rampage leaving 16 crime scenes behind before he got shot in a standoff with police.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/portapique-shooting-memorials-april-21-1.5539894

I wonder if the doom and gloom or lock down from the corona virus set him off. Around the world crime rates are dropping since the lock downs:
https://time.com/5819507/crime-drop-coronavirus/
Yet I suspect domestic violence got worse.

the anti-virus measures definitely didn't "set him off", but the state of affairs might have provided him the opportunity to act out his fantasies he clearly had beforehands (which is why he had police-disguise at the ready)

Last edited by Lafiel - on 22 April 2020

Lafiel said:
SvennoJ said:
The death toll of one man's rampage in Nova Scotia now stands at 22, compared to 10 covid19 deaths there... The worst mass shooting in modern Canadian history. No clue yet what set him off but since he was wearing a police uniform and had made his car look like a police car, definitely well planned. It was also a 100km rampage leaving 16 crime scenes behind before he got shot in a standoff with police.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/portapique-shooting-memorials-april-21-1.5539894

I wonder if the doom and gloom or lock down from the corona virus set him off. Around the world crime rates are dropping since the lock downs:
https://time.com/5819507/crime-drop-coronavirus/
Yet I suspect domestic violence got worse.

the anti-virus measures definitely didn't "set him off", but the state of affairs might have provided him the opportunity to act out his fantasies he clearly had beforehands (which is why he had police-disguise at the ready)

Any prior mental health issues?
It should be a policy not to tell weapons to these people, and/or if they had ones (guns) before a mental illness, to have them taken away by someone,
once they get such.  Crazy person + gun = bad combo.