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JRPGfan on 21 April 2020
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Trumpstyle said:
forest-spirit said:

Are you sure you aren't mixing things up? The Ministry of Health and Public Affairs (Folkhälsomyndigheten) released a report today predicting that 32% of Stockholm are/have been infected by the first day of May. But the data used in that report is from a study made between 27 March and 3 April where 707 people were tested.

As for the clip you posted, just to be clear, Jan Albert and Tom Britton are not from the Ministry of Health and Public Affairs.

Jan Albert is from Karolinska University Hospital and worked with the before mentioned test where 11 out of 100 test subjects were infected, and that's the test from which I suppose you got the 70-80% accuracy number from. This test is not to be confused with the report from the Ministry of Health and Public Affairs.

Tom Britton is a professor in mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, who estimates that 30% of the population of Stockholm has already been infected at some point.

Yep you're right on both count, I thought Jan Albert worked at our CDC (folkhälsomyndigheten) but he does not and our CDC is predicting by 1 may a third of Stockholm will be infected by the covid virus.

I didn't mention Tom britton, he think 25-40% of Stockholm right now is infected.  
(tom britton sounds stupid (in interviews), what he says goes against basically what everyone else says, even your own "folkhälsomyndigheten". So lets just ignore what hes saying) (its based on faulty data from a standford university study, to make a math model, that makes wrong asumptions from the start)

https://www.bt.dk/samfund/virusforskere-opbygning-af-flokimmunitet-er-tvivlsomt

^ in danish (but as a swede you should be able to read it, otherwise google translate)

"Immunity is currently suspected to only last upto 1-2 years."
"Gaining flock immunity could take as long as 5 years to reach"  - Astrid Iversen (professor of virology&immunity at Oxford University)


"Baseret på al den forskning, der findes om coronavirusser generelt, vil den ny coronavirus sandsynligvis følge samme mønster og give samme immunrespons, som coronavirusser i udgangspunktet gør, nemlig en ganske kortvarig beskyttende immunitet." - Astrid Iversen

(translation:  "Based on all research, there currently is on coronavirus's in general, this new coronavirus will likely follow the same paterns and give the same immuneresponces as other coronaviruses do, namely a relatively short lasting immunity" )


"Så antistofferne vil med al sandsynlighed være væk, inden vi har opnået flokimmunitet, siger hun til Berlingske." - Astrid Iversen

(translation: "so antibodies will with all likelyhood be gone, before we have reached meaningfull herd immunity, she says to Berlingske (newspaper)")


"Flokimmunitet vil medføre megen sygdom og død og kan med al sandsynlighed alligevel ikke lade sig gøre, siger Astrid Iversen."

(translation: "herd immunity, would result is alot of sickness and deaths and will in all likelyhood not even be possible, says Astrid Iversen" )


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlVU8XTLICI


WHO ~2-3% infected
Neatherlands bloodtesting ~3% infected.
(contradicts the standford university study data, which is likely faulty) (but which everyone uses in models to claim spread is more than it is)

Astrid Iversen actually believes spread isnt fast enough to reach 60%+ before your 1-2year immunity falls away.
Basically with social distanceing, and people not wanting to get this (and thus naturally trying to avoid getting it), it wont spread fast enough to reach herd immunity before you have people loseing immunity to it.

The "way" to get herd immunity, would be to basically force people to get infected then.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 21 April 2020