By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
forest-spirit on 21 April 2020
Edit Thread
SvennoJ said:
forest-spirit said:

I don't know, Giesecke sounds overly optimistic to me. And I'm pretty sure it's Stockholm specifically that might be heading towards herd immunity, not the country as a whole, and it's probably based on a recent blood test where 11 out of 100 tested persons had antibodies against the virus. Could be a good sign but it's not enough to draw any conclusions from.

11 out of 100 ??? That's what he's advising the country on what to do. And I thought Trump was irresponsible.

Well they did 2 tests with blood donors, so at least that's a sample size of a whole 200!

There are almost 1 million people in Stockholm.

With a R0 of 2.2 it takes about 3 months to get herd immunity, that's if it has already been spreading uncontrolled in Stockholm before the end of Januari.
Sweden detected its first case on Februari 15th, so closer to an R0 of 3.0 to get close to herd immunity by now.
Meanwhile the lower population density suggests a lower R0 for Stockholm, not a higher one. Why didn't Lombardy reach it already.

First covid19 deaths in Sweden were reported on March 14th, nearly 2 months after it should supposedly already have been rampantly spreading to get near herd immunity now. (Februari 21st first reported death in Intaly) Things don't add up.

Giesecke is no longer working as an advisor for our country (he's currently working for WHO so RIP those guys I guess) and it was just a guess of mine that this optimism and talk of herd immunity is driven by the results of those two tests.