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SvennoJ on 21 April 2020
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The death toll in Lombardy currently is 12376
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099389/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/
The population in Lombardy is 10.06 million, thus so far covid19 has killed 0.123% of the population there.

There are 66,971 reported cases in Lombardy
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-cases.html#states
That gives us a current death rate of 1.84% (deaths / detected) but missed cases, uncounted deaths, deaths lag 20 days behind and all that.

Wuhan has 11 million people and China has reported 4642 deaths in total and 67,803 detected cases in Hubei province.
The total deaths in China is only 33% of the deaths in Lombardy so far. So how can Wuhan have herd immunity while Lombardy is still going?
China's numbers can be all wrong of course.

So let's play around with the detected cases numbers for Lombardy.
10x undetected makes it 670K total cases atm, with 0.184% mortality rate and 6.3% of the population infected.
40x undetected makes it 2.68 million total cases atm, with 0.046% mortality rate and 27% of the population infected.
100x undetected makes it 6.7 million total cases atm, with 0.018% mortality rate and 67% of the population infected.

It's useless, either Lombardy has achieved herd immunity or it can still get 10x worse.
Sweden is taking a huge gamble not backed up by any reasonable math. Evidence based on small scale tests, bias, flaws and uncounted deaths all leading to huge error margins.

One mile stone was finally reached in Italy on Sunday, it looks like the active cases have peaked at 108,257, 36 days after lock down, 24 days after the growth peak. China reached that 13 days after the growth peak. The big question, is it because of declaring recoveries differently, or does a higher growth peak mean a much slower decline, or is it because of a much less strict lock down.