I think we look at at least 3 more months.

Uh, interesting read about how to fight this long-term - the hammer and the dance:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

This is the strategy:

This site also tracks the death rate
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

It could well be lower than 0.2% for under 40, a lot of people with only mild symptoms might never know they had it. But it's interesting they also track the increased risk with underlying conditions. People with cardiovascular disease are most at risk.

Everything is outdated though, the last chart (someone else posted) from Italy was based on 920 deaths. The old and more at risk also die a lot sooner so it's hard to get any accuracy until the recovery rate is well past the new incoming cases. The best we have is still China which is skewed due to the male population smoking a lot more than the female population.



Italy is skewed due to having the second oldest population worldwide while it's normal to have live in grandparents. And then this ...
https://time.com/5797637/italian-grandparents-coronavirus-babysitters/
That partly explains the high death toll in Italy :(

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

“The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older - the median is 67, while in China it was 46,” Prof Ricciardi says. “So essentially the age distribution of our patients is squeezed to an older age and this is substantial in increasing the lethality.” 

A study in JAMA this week found that almost 40 per cent of infections and 87 per cent of deaths in the country have been in patients over 70 years old.

And according to modelling the majority of this age group are likely to need critical hospital care - including 80 per cent of 80-somethings - putting immense pressure on the health system. 

Btw that JAMA link has all the stats for Italy updated to March 15th


The other link is relevant for my wife and I.

Roughly five per cent of people in their 40s will need to be treated in hospital after contracting a Covid-19 infection, doubling to 10.2 per cent among those in their 50s and 16.6 per cent of those in their 60s.

5% chance for me to have to be hospitalized, about times 9 (close to 50%) for my wife with her underlying conditions and then a 1 in 3 chance to end up in ICU.

I wouldn`t say neighboring countries would be much better, and I would be more prone to famine going to another country than dying from Covid by staying.

http://www.simaonlus.it/wpsima/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID19_Position-Paper_Relazione-circa-l%E2%80%99effetto-dell%E2%80%99inquinamento-da-particolato-atmosferico-e-la-diffusione-di-virus-nella-popolazione.pdf

Unfortunately it's italian only. It's from an italian NPO (http://www.simaonlus.it/). To be honest, the research is not so rigorous, but it's a first step.

Check the graph at page 4. On the y-axis you can see the log of the number of (confirmed) cases, on the x-axis there's a variable they use as a proxy of air pollution (this is what doesn't fully convince me to be honest).

Most cities in Brazil are entering soft lockdown on their own while Bolsonaro is doing his best Marie Antoinette impression. State governments are doing their part too, though a bit slower.

Of course, first day of lockdown today, and guess who is in the streets and filling public transport with their free passes? That's right, the elderly. Some cities are even having to interdict the plazas where they go play domino so they stay home.

SpokenTruth: "Those looks very close to the estimates I made last night. I should have saved it. I basically made each previous day 66% of the new total or the upcoming day."

Well then, great minds think alike.....But nobody tell Nightlyp...shhhushh.

SpokenTruth: My math shows the doubling rate in the USA is 2.5 days, what does your math show?

New York State now ay over 8k cases with nyc over 5k. Were gonna probably be at pver 10k tomorrow. Sad times ahead.

SpokenTruth: It's an aggressive growth rate though.

Spoke, your killing us my man...way too fast...God help us all here in the good 'ole US of A.

Peace out my VGC friends.