| John2290 said: I don't know what else to say but FUCK. Everything in the news I've been reading has been stating that Italy will see a sharp drop in cases this week and then a slower drop but yeah even if it is two weeks... or three, fingers crossed it is this week please god, I didn't think of the death rate being longer than 6 weeks after the cases shrink before it falls and levels off. You posted a spreadsheet, at least i think it was you, of the spread between demographics. Any link for that updated with recent numbers? I should be bookmarking these things. |
This site also tracks the death rate
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
It could well be lower than 0.2% for under 40, a lot of people with only mild symptoms might never know they had it. But it's interesting they also track the increased risk with underlying conditions. People with cardiovascular disease are most at risk.
Everything is outdated though, the last chart (someone else posted) from Italy was based on 920 deaths. The old and more at risk also die a lot sooner so it's hard to get any accuracy until the recovery rate is well past the new incoming cases. The best we have is still China which is skewed due to the male population smoking a lot more than the female population.
Italy is skewed due to having the second oldest population worldwide while it's normal to have live in grandparents. And then this ...
https://time.com/5797637/italian-grandparents-coronavirus-babysitters/
That partly explains the high death toll in Italy :(
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
“The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older - the median is 67, while in China it was 46,” Prof Ricciardi says. “So essentially the age distribution of our patients is squeezed to an older age and this is substantial in increasing the lethality.”
A study in JAMA this week found that almost 40 per cent of infections and 87 per cent of deaths in the country have been in patients over 70 years old.
And according to modelling the majority of this age group are likely to need critical hospital care - including 80 per cent of 80-somethings - putting immense pressure on the health system.
Btw that JAMA link has all the stats for Italy updated to March 15th
The other link is relevant for my wife and I.
Roughly five per cent of people in their 40s will need to be treated in hospital after contracting a Covid-19 infection, doubling to 10.2 per cent among those in their 50s and 16.6 per cent of those in their 60s.
5% chance for me to have to be hospitalized, about times 9 (close to 50%) for my wife with her underlying conditions and then a 1 in 3 chance to end up in ICU.
Essay Pro