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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
1748 new US cases yesterday. 6509 total cases. 32 new recoveries and 23 new deaths. 106 total recoveries and 115 total deaths.



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SvennoJ said:
jason1637 said:

I suggest everyone takes a look at this a lot of valuable information that many countries like the US are using for their response.
I found one bit really intriguing. The report says that with strict restrictions it should begin to peak in 3 weeks and in July the strict restrictions can be lifted for a month but need to be re implemented for 2 months and lifted for a month and implemented for 2 months again until a vaccine is widely available by years end or early 2021.


Is there no way to coordinate this globally to stop this virus, or after stomping it out in one country, check everything/everyone coming in to stop it from flaring up again. Faster, better tests could be a way out as well, next to a vaccine or medication.

I guess we'll know in a month if it flares up again in China :/

What we need is a bit of German efficiency. Everyone under 20 could be "inoculated" tomorrow with a minimal effect on the health service and it would result in a quarter of the population being immune. Even if it's temporary, surely that's better than nothing. Follow up with infecting half the 20-40yr olds a few days later and the other half a week after that and half the population will have immunity and would/could be safe to interact with the over 70s.

Ventilators. What's their fucking deal? I don't get what's so hard about them? They push oxygen enriched air in then suck it out. I get that the machines are pretty sophisticated but surely whatever is going on with them tubes can be replicated easily enough without all the electronics.



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NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:

Tonight's US-Italy update.

Another quick metric I like to observe is the difference between the end of the daily reporting period and when I make these charts.  Last night, we gained 45 new cases in that period.  Tonight we have gained 98 in that same little time gap.  It means little but it's another way to see the exponential growth.

EDIT: Back on the 12th, we were tied.  We've steadily increased at a rate greater than Italy and are now 1.5 days ahead.

And another reminder that the United States has a population 6.5x that of Italy and landmass 32.5x the size of that country.

There is no reason to post this.  The two countries are in completely different stages of the spread despite the top numbers.

Not debating that the United States and Italy are two different countries. Of course they are. But do you really believe that there's no reason to post that graph?

Look at the numbers posted, and how well they seem to map onto one another. Regardless of the differences between the US and Italy, the graph certainly seems to demonstrate the direction we're headed, and what we might reasonably expect in X number of days (though, as observed, the US is now ahead of the curve). It thus seems to be a useful graphic.



NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:

Tonight's US-Italy update.

Another quick metric I like to observe is the difference between the end of the daily reporting period and when I make these charts.  Last night, we gained 45 new cases in that period.  Tonight we have gained 98 in that same little time gap.  It means little but it's another way to see the exponential growth.

EDIT: Back on the 12th, we were tied.  We've steadily increased at a rate greater than Italy and are now 1.5 days ahead.

And another reminder that the United States has a population 6.5x that of Italy and landmass 32.5x the size of that country.

There is no reason to post this.  The two countries are in completely different stages of the spread despite the top numbers.

Nope, you don't get it. If a virus spreads among the whole country and reaches everywhere the same, then you compare the numbers per capita. But that is not the case. The virus spreads in hotspots and is stoppedbefore it reaches the whole country. In China the hotspot was Wuhan and the Hubei province. Despite the chinese new years and increased travel activity at this time, the rest of China didn't get much cases. In South Korea the hotspot is Daegu. One of the biggest and densest urban area (Seoul) has not a lot of cases. Same is true in the US, the virus has more spread at the west coast and in NY. This alone shows you, that a per capita look is failed (or you need to start one separately for Washington and Florida).

But a virus we intend to contain and many countries indeed contained, there the absolute numbers are more relevant. It shows when the containment works.

Only because a country has a higher population, a virus doesn't spread faster. Say two countries imported 10 cases from China at the beginning the same. Then these 10 persons are infecting the next, despite the size of the overall population. That depends on how much people these 10 meet before the infection is identified. And in a country with a higher total population each person doesn't meet more people on average than in a country with lower total population.

If anything, the density of the population is more of a factor. As Italy has six times the population density, it would be to expected that the virus grows faster in Italy. As the statistics shows it is the other way around, which indicates that other factors make it worse in the US compared to Italy.



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NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:

Tonight's US-Italy update.

Another quick metric I like to observe is the difference between the end of the daily reporting period and when I make these charts.  Last night, we gained 45 new cases in that period.  Tonight we have gained 98 in that same little time gap.  It means little but it's another way to see the exponential growth.

EDIT: Back on the 12th, we were tied.  We've steadily increased at a rate greater than Italy and are now 1.5 days ahead.

And another reminder that the United States has a population 6.5x that of Italy and landmass 32.5x the size of that country.

There is no reason to post this.  The two countries are in completely different stages of the spread despite the top numbers.

To you only you mean, not to us. I want to see if the number for US becomes 50 - 100k in the end or not



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John2290 said:
NightlyPoe said:

And another reminder that the United States has a population 6.5x that of Italy and landmass 32.5x the size of that country.

There is no reason to post this.  The two countries are in completely different stages of the spread despite the top numbers.

The population of the US doesn't spread out across that land mass. The people live on often more dense populations and right now you are migrating from all over the country to party it up on beaches then returning to those dense areas. If you can't get your young population under control that graph will accelerate on the US side far more than Italy if the damage hasn't already been done. 

Its like people forget, it has incubation periode is something like 12 days on avg.

Most of the tested people, are ones that are showing symptoms, so they get tested (or hospitaled) and thus you know about them.
What you dont know, is the countless more, that are either without many symptoms (running around infecting others), or the people that are still in the incubation periode (but still spreading it).

For all the confirmed cases, there could be many times more, people out there that just arnt tested positive for it yet.



huynhpro said:

Italians play Fortnite game to avoid the covid 19... see more

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q734VN0N7hw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=up53FltNpsY



https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=6WME87A3FqY&feature=emb_logo

Big brother Germany is informing their candidates about the virus (because most have been locked up in the game before it started in Europe).

Surreal telivision.






konnichiwa said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=6WME87A3FqY&feature=emb_logo

Big brother Germany is informing their candidates about the virus (because most have been locked up in the game before it started in Europe).

Surreal telivision.

Surreal Big Brother is still a thing. 



NightlyPoe said:
donathos said:

Not debating that the United States and Italy are two different countries. Of course they are. But do you really believe that there's no reason to post that graph?

Look at the numbers posted, and how well they seem to map onto one another. Regardless of the differences between the US and Italy, the graph certainly seems to demonstrate the direction we're headed, and what we might reasonably expect in X number of days (though, as observed, the US is now ahead of the curve). It thus seems to be a useful graphic.

The implication he's been going with is that the United States is on track to arrive at critical mass at the same time as Italy where we can't handle the influx.  It's simply not true.  The number of infected as a share of the population is nowhere near Italy's.

If he added a "per 1,000,000 residents" or whatever to the chart, then it wouldn't be so misleading.

Didn't you read what I wrote as an answer to a similar statement from you at all?

The overall size of a country  doesn't matter at all. The medical system in Washington may be overwhelmed already while Florida has plenty of space in ICU left. Also in Italy you have it concentrated on northern Italy where the health system is overwhelmed, but over areas are fine.



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