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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 31 10.92%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.45%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.32%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.28%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.63%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.46%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.76%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.46%
 
Total:284
victor83fernandes said:

Never, when the ps5 launches and sony drops the price of ps4 slim, and ps4 games start getting really cheap second hand the ps4 will keep selling, will most likely hit 120 million by the end of this year, and 150 million in 3 years.

The problem with Nintendo is they wont drop the price, on top of that games keep their price too high so there's not much incentive to buy it, specially when the new consoles arrive this year the graphics will be way better than on switch, the difference will be too massive for people to invest such money on a weak switch. Nintendo might make a switch 2, but that means the newer games wouldn't run on the older switch, so if they make a new switch, I doubt the current one would hit 120 million.

If Nintendo wants to catch up to ps4, they need to drop the price of the switch, and specially the price of games, this is the main reason I still prefer my WiiU over the switch, because games on wiiU can be bought at one quarter of the price, sometimes less, games like Mario kart 8, new super Mario U, pikmin 3, wonderful 101, bayonetta all cost me around 10 dollars each. Even breath of the wild cost me 20 dollars, I could pay 60 for the switch but why? Its basically the same game, just resolution is slightly better on switch but not worth 3x the price.

This is key for the ps4 success, games can be bought second hand between 5dollars and 20 dollars, even top exclusives, that's what I paid for spiderman and god of war. And ps store always has sales going on.

People said the same thing three years ago, that Switch would be too weak to sell alongside PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. By this logic, the DS shouldn't have been able to sell alongside PS3 or 360 either.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Nu-13 said:
Soundwave said:

PS4 is at 106 million now, it's not going to just magically stop at 110 million.

Really Sony could probably hit 140 mill if they really want to, they haven't even cut to $199.99 let alone $149.99 ... if they wanted that number they could get it. It's a question of what they want to do.

Selling 106 million mostly at $299-$399 is crazy. Even the PS2 needed significant price cuts and DS was $130 or less basically all its product cycle ... for the PS4 to be $300 or more basically all its life cycle to 100+ million is incredible. 

Oh my. By your first sentence, you seem to imply that the switch will only do 110m at best. You must have "interesting" predictions for the next few years.

Very funny. There isn't a realistic scenario for the ps4 to reach those numbers. Sony would have needed a $199 price tag by the end of 2017 or something similar.

I don't really get what you're trying to say on that last paragraph. It appears that you're trying to downplay sales of cheaper products, completely ignoring that price is the most basic part of a business strategy. And for the record, the switch hasn't received a price cut in almost 3 years while the ps4 already had 2 in that time frame and is still tracking ahead. Add that to your list of things to consider.

2017 ? and why ? what is the logic to do a major permanent pricecut of 100$ when your console is at its peak ? I don't get it. Even 2018 was not okay for pricecut. I mean 2018 was still second best year of PS4. 2019 I think the pricecut had to happen but it didn't. 2020 is still not too late. If they do a price cut now this month with the revealing of PS5, to permanent 199$ and with the titles that are coming this year, PS4 could easily hit 14M for the year, reaching 120M by december 31. From there on the drops that would face without pricecut will be way smaller. For example without pricecuts PS4 may get 10 to 12M this year and possibly 7 - 8M next year. With the pricecut however of 199$ permanent PS4 can reach 14M this year, and around 10-11M next year, which will put it at 130M with 2021, then let's say 6-7M in 2022, then again 2 paths one without more pricecuts, so 2023 4M and 3-4M in the next 2-3 years so around 145M lifetime, or with anouther pricecut to 149$ or 129$ in 2023 and with this making around the same 6-7M in 2023, with 4-5M in 2024 and 5M more for the following 2-3 years, which will put it at around 155M lifetime, very close to PS2 and just barely above DS.

And then of course the case of no pricecut at all until death, I bet the number will be no more than 130M total.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 05 February 2020

yo33331 said:
Nu-13 said:

Oh my. By your first sentence, you seem to imply that the switch will only do 110m at best. You must have "interesting" predictions for the next few years.

Very funny. There isn't a realistic scenario for the ps4 to reach those numbers. Sony would have needed a $199 price tag by the end of 2017 or something similar.

I don't really get what you're trying to say on that last paragraph. It appears that you're trying to downplay sales of cheaper products, completely ignoring that price is the most basic part of a business strategy. And for the record, the switch hasn't received a price cut in almost 3 years while the ps4 already had 2 in that time frame and is still tracking ahead. Add that to your list of things to consider.

2017? and why ? what is the logic to do a major permanent pricecut of 100$ when your console is at its peak? I don't get it. Even 2018 was not okay for pricecut. I mean 2018 was still second best year of PS4. 2019 I think the pricecut had to happen but it didn't. 2020 is still not too late. If they do a price cut now this month with the revealing of PS5, to permanent 199$ and with the titles that are coming this year, PS4 could easily hit 14M for the year, reaching 120M by december 31. From there on the drops that would face without pricecut will be way smaller. For example without pricecuts PS4 may get 10 to 12M this year and possibly 7 - 8M next year. With the pricecut however of 199$ permanent PS4 can reach 14M this year, and around 10-11M next year, which will put it at 130M with 2021, then let's say 6-7M in 2022, then again 2 paths one without more pricecuts, so 2023 4M and 3-4M in the next 2-3 years so around 145M lifetime, or with anouther pricecut to 149$ or 129$ in 2023 and with this making around the same 6-7M in 2023, with 4-5M in 2024 and 5M more for the following 2-3 years, which will put it at around 155M lifetime, very close to PS2 and just barely above DS.

And then of course the case of no pricecut at all until death, I bet the number will be no more than 130M total.

Your post can come from one of two things, both of which bode poorly. I'll just say AGAIN that that is the price ps4 NEEDED if it wanted to reach those lifetime sales you mentioned. I didn't read the rest.



I think 97 people who voted in this poll could potentially be shown up by Nintendo haha. Not that I think it's super likely, but I definitely think Switch has a decent chance to eventually outsell PS4. With PS5, sales of Sony's current console are likely to taper off quite a bit, while Switch should keep selling strong at least until the launch of its next console. Question is when will that be?

Still, Switch has a lot going for it. It's a hybrid console, meaning it's not only open to a larger potential base but also various redesigns, expanding its sales. Its library is also reaching ridiculous levels and has all studios conglomerating on a single device rather than split between a home console and handheld - and it's yet to receive a price drop.

I think 130-140 mil is a very real posibility for Switch, especially considering DS sold more than that at over 150. And that was ONLY a handheld.

But again, it's really up to Nintendo. They can milk this thing for 5 more years theoretically, which means outselling PS4 is very likely. OR they can cut it off short by releasing a sucessor in 2 years, which means it likely does NOT reach PS4.



 

"We hold these truths t-be self-ful evident. All men and women created by the.. Go-you know the.. you know the thing!" - Joe Biden

Sony systems tend to have better support than Nintendo systems after the successor comes. Nintendo drops them like dead weight. I really feel Switch will cap off between 105-110 million. If I am wrong I'm wrong. Not bothered. Be cool to see it sell more.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

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Leynos said:
Sony systems tend to have better support than Nintendo systems after the successor comes. Nintendo drops them like dead weight. I really feel Switch will cap off between 105-110 million. If I am wrong I'm wrong. Not bothered. Be cool to see it sell more.

They didn't drop the 3DS like dead weight.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Ah,...again that almost unmistakable whiff of Zero999 in this forum...



It already has, launch aligned.

The question should be whether PS4 can retake and hold the lead.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

curl-6 said:
Leynos said:
Sony systems tend to have better support than Nintendo systems after the successor comes. Nintendo drops them like dead weight. I really feel Switch will cap off between 105-110 million. If I am wrong I'm wrong. Not bothered. Be cool to see it sell more.

They didn't drop the 3DS like dead weight.

Because they had nothing else to fall back on. It's the 3rd pillar thing only down to 2. Wii U was a disaster. 3DS carried them during those years. If Switch failed they could not fall back to Wii U. Just 3DS. 3DS was the fallback. Now that Switch is a success. 3DS is all but dead. I have not checked 3DS numbers but it seems it's not even selling 1 million units a year. It seems to be hovering last I looked at 75-76 million in official sales reports for some time now. Probably just clearing whatever stock they have left at this point.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Leynos said:
curl-6 said:

They didn't drop the 3DS like dead weight.

Because they had nothing else to fall back on. It's the 3rd pillar thing only down to 2. Wii U was a disaster. 3DS carried them during those years. If Switch failed they could not fall back to Wii U. Just 3DS. 3DS was the fallback. Now that Switch is a success. 3DS is all but dead. I have not checked 3DS numbers but it seems it's not even selling 1 million units a year. It seems to be hovering last I looked at 75-76 million in official sales reports for some time now. Probably just clearing whatever stock they have left at this point.

It's dead by now, but it sold 12 million after the release of the Switch.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.