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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

Never, when the ps5 launches and sony drops the price of ps4 slim, and ps4 games start getting really cheap second hand the ps4 will keep selling, will most likely hit 120 million by the end of this year, and 150 million in 3 years.

The problem with Nintendo is they wont drop the price, on top of that games keep their price too high so there's not much incentive to buy it, specially when the new consoles arrive this year the graphics will be way better than on switch, the difference will be too massive for people to invest such money on a weak switch. Nintendo might make a switch 2, but that means the newer games wouldn't run on the older switch, so if they make a new switch, I doubt the current one would hit 120 million.

If Nintendo wants to catch up to ps4, they need to drop the price of the switch, and specially the price of games, this is the main reason I still prefer my WiiU over the switch, because games on wiiU can be bought at one quarter of the price, sometimes less, games like Mario kart 8, new super Mario U, pikmin 3, wonderful 101, bayonetta all cost me around 10 dollars each. Even breath of the wild cost me 20 dollars, I could pay 60 for the switch but why? Its basically the same game, just resolution is slightly better on switch but not worth 3x the price.

This is key for the ps4 success, games can be bought second hand between 5dollars and 20 dollars, even top exclusives, that's what I paid for spiderman and god of war. And ps store always has sales going on.

People said the same thing three years ago, that Switch would be too weak to sell alongside PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. By this logic, the DS shouldn't have been able to sell alongside PS3 or 360 either.

The switch is still capable against a ps4, but the ps5 will be at least 10x more powerful than a switch. PS5 will also be backwards compatible, switch isn't.

But this talk is pointless, even if the switch hits wii numbers, it still wont outsell the ps4 which will end up at 150 million. Or are you telling me the switch will sell 70 million in the next 2-3 years? I'm sure Nintendo will release a switch2 in 2-3 years.

The ps4 will have a price drop when the ps5 launches, by then ps4 will be already 115 million sold, the switch will be 60 million, switch sales will start to slow down, and so will ps4, next gen consoles will start to be the top sellers.

There is no way Nintendo could outsell the ps4, unless

1 - they drop the price of consoles

2 - they do some sales on their older games

3 - they don't release a next gen switch for at least 4 years

4 - Even if all that becomes true, its still far fetched to think it could outsell a ps4. In the end even the 3ds didn't outsell the ps3 or 360, Nintendo portables do really well in the first few years but then sales drop fast.

Last edited by victor83fernandes - on 06 February 2020

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colafitte said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
If I've said it once, I've said it a hundred times. Switch is going to become the top selling system of all time. In a few years people will look back and see that 2017-2018 was really Switch's slow mode. I just really started to get going in 2019 and it's still accelerating. It's going to easily outsell the PS4 in a few years and then just keep going.

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

Seriously, only 17M this year? Care to explain why? After all, it's selling quite a bit better than last year already and that one had both the leftover from Smash/PLG from the year before and NSMBUD early that year. And the lead will only grow once AC will release.

If you want to tell because no games announced yet, do remember that by this point in 2018, Smash wasn't even known yet. Same is certainly true for this year.



padib said:

Today is Feb 2020. The switch was launched on March 3rd 2017 and therefore has been on the market for roughly 3 years.

It will have various models and can have multi-sales due to having a portable incarnation, so it will enjoy sales strength greater than a Nintendo handheld.
It will see various revisions and is seeing strong early success, therefore a sequel will be late for the Switch compared to previous handhelds and home consoles. I believe it will have an 10-year lifespan due to success and scalability of graphical power.

Over the course of these 10 years, it will have a front-loaded curve which will peak in around 2 years and slowly decrease.

Currently the Switch sells on average 16 million per years (AVG 1m per month, and 5 million in December). That number can rise up to 18m within the next 2 years.

Current sales: 50.5m
YoY Feb 2021: 17m (67.5m)
YoY Feb 2022: 18m (75.5m)
YoY Feb 2023: 18m (93.5m)
YoY Feb 2024: 15m (108.5m)
YoY Feb 2025: 13m (121.5m)

The PS4 is selling 10.8m per year right in 2020, in 2019 it was selling ~18m last year. I see this trend for PS4
YoY Feb 2021: 6m (113m)
YoY Feb 2022: 4m (117m)
YoY Feb 2023: 2m (119m)
YoY Feb 2024: 1m (120m)
YoY Feb 2025: 0.5m (120.5m)

In my opinion the Switch will outsell the PS4 during the 2024 holidays.

Nintendo is not keeping the switch for another 5 years, I am 100% certain they will release a new console before then. They never had a console going for 8 years without a successor. Sales will drop fast, just like 3ds, no way the switch would be selling 13 million in 2025, no way, most people who wanted one already have it, unless they would be sold at 120 dollars in 2025.

You expect the ps4 to sell 6 million until next year? I don't know what drugs are you on, but there will be a price drop, games price drops and a thing called Christmas and blackfriday, the ps4 will sell minimum 10 million until next February, easily. And minimum 5million the year after, because of the low prices, there are a lot of poor people who cant afford 450dollars consoles + 60-70 dollars games. I know of people still using a ps3 and still waiting on the ps4 to reach 150dollars with games.

At current pace the ps4 would sell 7 million, but its a slow month, when last of us 2 releases, the ps4 sales will more than double, and then on black Friday with price drop it will triple. 7 million would be the absolute minimum sales possible, there's less than 10% chance of them selling only 7 million. Maybe if sony released the ps5 at 399dollars which is impossible, as the ssd alone costs more than 100 dollars.

Come back to me when its proven that I'm right yet again.

Last edited by victor83fernandes - on 06 February 2020

victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

People said the same thing three years ago, that Switch would be too weak to sell alongside PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. By this logic, the DS shouldn't have been able to sell alongside PS3 or 360 either.

The switch is still capable against a ps4, but the ps5 will be at least 10x more powerful than a switch. PS5 will also be backwards compatible, switch isn't.

But this talk is pointless, even if the switch hits wii numbers, it still wont outsell the ps4 which will end up at 150 million. Or are you telling me the switch will sell 70 million in the next 2-3 years? I'm sure Nintendo will release a switch2 in 2-3 years.

The ps4 will have a price drop when the ps5 launches, by then ps4 will be already 115 million sold, the switch will be 60 million, switch sales will start to slow down, and so will ps4, next gen consoles will start to be the top sellers.

There is no way Nintendo could outsell the ps4, unless

1 - they drop the price of consoles

2 - they do some sales on their older games

3 - they don't release a next gen switch for at least 4 years

4 - Even if all that becomes true, its still far fetched to think it could outsell a ps4. In the end even the 3ds didn't outsell the ps3 or 360, Nintendo portables do really well in the first few years but then sales drop fast.

It won't matter if PS5 is x10 or even x30 more powerful than the Switch. People don't buy the Switch for graphics, they buy it cos its the only way to play Pokemon/Smash/etc and is now the only option for dedicated gaming on the go. PS5 doesn't supplant that, so it won't affect Switch sales.

And assuming Switch will adhere to the trends of past Nintendo systems is also a mistake as it is quite unlike any of them.

Show me where I said Switch will outsell PS4.



Wow, it seems I triggered all the nintendo fanbase here.

Dont worry guys, you will survive if someone here doesn't agree with you with a stupid Nintendo prediction...

And I dont give a shit if you dont agree with me anymore. If I am wrong all the nintendo fans will be coming at me and if I am right there will be silence and lack of any kind of recognition. There is no point in wasting any time on this...

It was a mistake, like always, posting in a Nintendo thread.

I think I am starting to not getting any fun in this forum. I'm pretty sure I will be right in what I am saying and that's it. Feel free to disagree all you want. Keep living in your own bubble forever.

I think I'm going to abandon this site forever. Not worth the effort. I wonder how those permanent bans work...

Please, dont waste any effort answering this comment, because there wont be any more replies.



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colafitte said:
Wow, it seems I triggered all the nintendo fanbase here.

Dont worry guys, you will survive if someone here doesn't agree with you with a stupid Nintendo prediction...

And I dont give a shit if you dont agree with me anymore. If I am wrong all the nintendo fans will be coming at me and if I am right there will be silence and lack of any kind of recognition. There is no point in wasting any time on this...

It was a mistake, like always, posting in a Nintendo thread.

I think I am starting to not getting any fun in this forum. I'm pretty sure I will be right in what I am saying and that's it. Feel free to disagree all you want. Keep living in your own bubble forever.

I think I'm going to abandon this site forever. Not worth the effort. I wonder how those permanent bans work...

Please, dont waste any effort answering this comment, because there wont be any more replies.

This is a weird post, nobody in this thread has been mean or attacked you and the discussion has been pretty civil so I'm not sure what makes you think anyone is triggered.

You are the one getting upset at people for disagreeing with you while generalizing everyone that does as a triggered Nintendo fan and threatening to leave because of it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte said:
Wow, it seems I triggered all the nintendo fanbase here.

Dont worry guys, you will survive if someone here doesn't agree with you with a stupid Nintendo prediction...

And I dont give a shit if you dont agree with me anymore. If I am wrong all the nintendo fans will be coming at me and if I am right there will be silence and lack of any kind of recognition. There is no point in wasting any time on this...

It was a mistake, like always, posting in a Nintendo thread.

I think I am starting to not getting any fun in this forum. I'm pretty sure I will be right in what I am saying and that's it. Feel free to disagree all you want. Keep living in your own bubble forever.

I think I'm going to abandon this site forever. Not worth the effort. I wonder how those permanent bans work...

Please, dont waste any effort answering this comment, because there wont be any more replies.

If you wish to leave, that is entirely on you. You posted predictions that lacked any logic and people (me included) called you out on that. You've been playing the victim while throwing petty insults at the nintendo fanbase ever since. Do expect to be quoted again because of that even if you ask people not to.

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 07 February 2020

I don't think it will pass PS4, as it is still going pretty strong.

I do think it's laughable when I see comments that think it's highly unlikely it will pass the Wii though... Why do people keep expecting sales to just "drop off a cliff" for the Switch? If anything, being the first hybrid, it has the best chance to have the longest life in terms of software support.



1doesnotsimply

FarleyMcFirefly said:
I don't think it will pass PS4, as it is still going pretty strong.

I do think it's laughable when I see comments that think it's highly unlikely it will pass the Wii though... Why do people keep expecting sales to just "drop off a cliff" for the Switch? If anything, being the first hybrid, it has the best chance to have the longest life in terms of software support.

If you expect a sales curve similar to the 3DS you will arrive at below the Wii.

Launch Aligned (December 2019) - Switch (48.8m), 3DS (39.7m)

3DS was over halfway through it's total sales at this point, keeping the Switch at the same percentage higher would bring the total to this:

Switch (92.3m), 3DS (75.1m)

But thinking the sales difference will remain proportionally the same is a mistake, Switch's later years will be much better. Beating the Wii is basically a certainty imo.



colafitte said:
Wow, it seems I triggered all the nintendo fanbase here.

Dont worry guys, you will survive if someone here doesn't agree with you with a stupid Nintendo prediction...

And I dont give a shit if you dont agree with me anymore. If I am wrong all the nintendo fans will be coming at me and if I am right there will be silence and lack of any kind of recognition. There is no point in wasting any time on this...

It was a mistake, like always, posting in a Nintendo thread.

I think I am starting to not getting any fun in this forum. I'm pretty sure I will be right in what I am saying and that's it. Feel free to disagree all you want. Keep living in your own bubble forever.

I think I'm going to abandon this site forever. Not worth the effort. I wonder how those permanent bans work...

Please, dont waste any effort answering this comment, because there wont be any more replies.

Well the same thing happens with every fanbase soooooo......



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