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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 31 10.92%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.45%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.32%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.28%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.63%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.46%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.76%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.46%
 
Total:284
StokedUp said:
Does the Switch Lite sales contribute to the main switch sales even though it's purely handheld so should be in the handheld section?!

The Switch was a handheld console since its launch, despite what some people claimed. But it wouldn't make sense to make it compete with itself since it's effectively the last handheld console on the market.



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Never. The Switch 2 is going to prevent that. When Nintendo release the Switch 2, they are going to stop production of the OG Switch.



I think it wont, but the gap would be less than 5 million.
PS4 is going beyond 130M, I guess.
I dont think switch will reach 130M.



Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

That seems a bit drastic to me, I'm thinking this year will be similar to last year with a steady decline from that point onward

2020-~20m

2021-~17m

2022~13m

Yep I pretty much agree. 2021 outperforming 2019 as a couple have suggested seems like a fantasy.

I know that both of you are following some sort of mathematical model, but you have no idea why you are even using these models or why they usually work.  These models have underlying assumptions like a company's strategy, execution and the current market conditions.  If you don't take these assumptions into account, or realize when they change in a significant way, then you are going to keep being surprised when the Switch keeps selling better than you are projecting.  There is more to projecting future sales than just studying the data.



zorg1000 said:
Barkley said:

If 2021 does only see next to no drop that would be very impressive.

That seems a bit drastic to me, I'm thinking this year will be similar to last year with a steady decline from that point onward

2020-~20m

2021-~17m

2022~13m

Basically 2017-2020 in reverse.

Yeah that sounds about right to me too.

A few more millions in 2023 and onwards should get it into the 100-110 million range that I expect from it lifetime.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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I think the good question would have been do you think it will outsell the PS4 if yes then when ?

Cause going straight at it with "when" implies that the Switch outselling the PS4 is obvious and inevitable. It sounds a little arrogant in my opinion.

Now that does not mean the Switch cannot outsell the PS4, it's quite possible of course, but clearly uncertain at this point.



JRPGfan said:
I think Switch 2 comes out in 2021-2022.

Yeah.

...No.



Switch 2021 sales are hard to predict, and will depend on a lot of things.

First, i believe is almost guaranteed a pricedrop in 2020, the later in the year happen, the smallest will be the YOY drop in 2021. If Nintendo makes a pricedrop around July/August for example that's a lot of months to sell, while if they do a pricedrop in November, the momentum for Switch in the first half of 2021 is going to be very strong.

second, new models, there are many rumors about a Switch pro in 2020... i really don't know what to think about this, i honestly can see both 2020 and 2021 very likely for that new model. If Switch Pro is 2021, that's also gonna be a good thing for the next year.

And of course the line up. Is Breath of The wild 2 gonna be 2020 or 2021? Sinnoh remake 2020 or 2021? Metroid Prime 4 gonna be 2021 or ever later than that? What kind of Mario are we gonna see those years? We already know Animal Crossing will be at the start of 2020, and that's gonna be big expecially in Japan. But we'll see what kind of line up those 2 years are gonna have.


Lastly, pls stop making comparation with other Nintendo consoles. Having Wii and 3DS dropping badly after some years, most Nintendo consoles peaking in the 2nd year ecc seriusly mean a shit. It's been 3 years since Switch is in the market, and at this point it has to be obvius the trend is different.
Switch trend is looking closer to a Playstation/XBOX console to be honest, i really think comparations with those consoles is better. Surely it won't have legs as the PS2 or the PS1, or even the 360. But i think a similar trend to PS4 is realistic to expect.



StokedUp said:
Does the Switch Lite sales contribute to the main switch sales even though it's purely handheld so should be in the handheld section?!

Yes their both a Switch.
I'd argue that both are handhelds as well.

The dock just allows it to draw abit more power than a handheld normally would.

Also we dont need a handheld section do we?
Nintendo is the only one in it, and its competiteing agains traditional consoles.
Atm nintendo is the entire handheld market.



zorg1000 said:
RingoGaSuki said:
Depends how quickly the PS4 dies off after the PS5 launch. If it continues to sell as the PS2 did, I don't think Switch will catch it. If it doesn't, then sometime in 2023.

It wont have nearly as strong post-successor legs as PS2. A few reasons being

1. emerging markets now get the consoles at or near the same time as the main markets.

2. PS3 released 5 years after PS2 while PS5 is releasing 7 years after PS4.

3. PS4 will never get close to the price that PS2 got to.

2000 and 2006 (2007 in EU) So not 5 years