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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 29 10.47%
 
First half of 2023 23 8.30%
 
Second half of 2023 33 11.91%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.42%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.78%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.53%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.81%
 
Later than above 2 0.72%
 
Never 147 53.07%
 
Total:277
Ka-pi96 said:
S.Peelman said:

Everybody just guesses something. That more people guess the same thing doesn't mean that that particular thing is actually going to happen. This far in advance both outcomes have as much of a chance of happening. If you or anyone end up right with their answer, they were just lucky.

Nah, it's not 50/50. One outcome is definitely more likely than the other. And it's certainly not just luck, there's a huge number of variables in play and the more of those that you take into account (and actually know) the more likely you are to be correct. If you just pick randomly and ignore everything then yeah, it's just pure luck. But if you actually think about things then you should be correct more often than you're wrong.

Eh, maybe. I don’t think either is some extreme.



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LGBTDBZBBQ said:
nier1993 said:

Ps4 was 199$ for like 2 days during the holidays before being sold out. Switch is 199$ since September.

At Amazon only because of limited stock allocation. In last few years PS4 bf bundled in the US it was sold at $199+Spiderman and $199+TLOU+HZD+GOW.

In Europe and Japan it last for a couple of weeks with $199 and 2 free games. I. In a few asean countries you could get PS4 + 3 free games like GOW+GTA5+HZD+3 months of PS+ at $245 price points for a whole month.

PS4 at $199 sold out in around 3-4 days at all retailers. 

For 2019 you had plenty of sites like eBay selling switch lite for $170 and hybrid switch for $250-275 a couple of weeks. So it’s not only the PS4 that had deals, all consoles Do. 



KBG29 said:
Voted Never.

I think the Switch will reach its market saturation point and slow down rapidly like the every other Nintendo device,except the DS has done.

If I had to make a preditction right now, I would say the Switch will end up somewhere between the 3DS and Wii when it is all said and done. I don't think it will be able to reach the 100M mark.

I believe that 2020 will be the last massive year for Switch, with another decent year in 2021, but after that, the market will be very competitive. With 5G rolling out, and the maturation of PS Now, Stadia, xCloud, and other online streaming services, the ability to access your AAA games library anywhere will be quite common. It will be time for Nintendo to innovate a new exciting concept.

I liked your post because it gave me a good laugh.



If Nintendo keeps supporting the switch and having at the same time a switch pro (like ps4 pro) it can easily pass the ps4 around 2023-2024 :)



kazuyamishima said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

At Amazon only because of limited stock allocation. In last few years PS4 bf bundled in the US it was sold at $199+Spiderman and $199+TLOU+HZD+GOW.

In Europe and Japan it last for a couple of weeks with $199 and 2 free games. I. In a few asean countries you could get PS4 + 3 free games like GOW+GTA5+HZD+3 months of PS+ at $245 price points for a whole month.

PS4 at $199 sold out in around 3-4 days at all retailers. 

For 2019 you had plenty of sites like eBay selling switch lite for $170 and hybrid switch for $250-275 a couple of weeks. So it’s not only the PS4 that had deals, all consoles Do. 

PS4 at $140 to be exact since Spiderman was at $60 msrp, even lower when Japan included any 2 free recently released games like Spiderman.

The difference between Nintendo and Sony from your list, Sony was nation wide promotion around the globe while Switch wasn't. 



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Im not sure the Switch can sell 120m units based on its current tarjectory.

Particularly, is there an audience of 100-120m people who want to mainly play Nintendo's games? Their only consoles to go over 100m relied heavily on appealing outside of their core userbase (wii/DS) or being the only big player in the handheld market (Gameboy).

I'm inclined to think the Switch will end around or below the PS4 with a steep decline in later life.



It won't



Otter said:
Im not sure the Switch can sell 120m units based on its current tarjectory.

Particularly, is there an audience of 100-120m people who want to mainly play Nintendo's games? Their only consoles to go over 100m relied heavily on appealing outside of their core userbase (wii/DS) or being the only big player in the handheld market (Gameboy).

I'm inclined to think the Switch will end around or below the PS4 with a steep decline in later life.

Sure, one of the main issues with Nintendo has been that their audience is split between their handheld and home console ecosystems. On top of that Nintendo software teams have had to split resources between 2-4 different platforms.

For example, in 1999/2000 Nintendo was working on late GBC & N64 games while also working on early GBA & GC games. In the 2004-2006 period they would have been working on late GBA & GC games while also working on early DS & Wii games then around 2009-2012 they had to work on late DS & Wii games while also working on early 3DS & Wii U games.

That means each generation only gets a few years of Nintendo's full attention and even in those years support would be split between handheld and home consoles. This progressively has gotten worse as development costs and times increase.

Switch is the first time since the mid 80s that Nintendo gets to give 100% of their support to a single platform which means their audience will all be in one place and sales will not plummet or stagnate like many previous devices have.

I'm not saying it will pass PS4 but 100-120 million is not out of the question at all.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

There are just too many factors to tell, really.. Will Japan still be gung-ho about handhelds in 4 years? Will Nintendo release more upgraded/revamped Switch models? What's the library look like. And the big one - when will Nintendo release Switch 2?

Now I anticipate this thing selling at a similar number/trajectory to the DS - though probably a bit less ultimately. People compare it to the Wii but really the device is something of a hybrid of the two, and maybe a bit more similar to the DS b/c it has a touch screen and handheld functionality is really its biggest draw. I think the sales will similarly be somewhere in the middle, perhaps in the 120-130 range. It'll almost certainly have longer legs than the Wii, which completely flatlined after an explosive first 3 years or so.

PS4 will probably end up with a similar number of close to 120. So it's tough to say whether it'll even cross the PS4 in the first place. I think there's a good chance, IF Nintendo churns out a couple new models in the next 4 or so years and keeps supporting it with a strong library. Assuming that happens? I can see Switch inch past the PS4 (at least slightly) by the end of Christmas 2024.



 

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zorg1000 said:
Otter said:
Im not sure the Switch can sell 120m units based on its current tarjectory.

Particularly, is there an audience of 100-120m people who want to mainly play Nintendo's games? Their only consoles to go over 100m relied heavily on appealing outside of their core userbase (wii/DS) or being the only big player in the handheld market (Gameboy).

I'm inclined to think the Switch will end around or below the PS4 with a steep decline in later life.

Sure, one of the main issues with Nintendo has been that their audience is split between their handheld and home console ecosystems. On top of that Nintendo software teams have had to split resources between 2-4 different platforms.

For example, in 1999/2000 Nintendo was working on late GBC & N64 games while also working on early GBA & GC games. In the 2004-2006 period they would have been working on late GBA & GC games while also working on early DS & Wii games then around 2009-2012 they had to work on late DS & Wii games while also working on early 3DS & Wii U games.

That means each generation only gets a few years of Nintendo's full attention and even in those years support would be split between handheld and home consoles. This progressively has gotten worse as development costs and times increase.

Switch is the first time since the mid 80s that Nintendo gets to give 100% of their support to a single platform which means their audience will all be in one place and sales will not plummet or stagnate like many previous devices have.

I'm not saying it will pass PS4 but 100-120 million is not out of the question at all.

I fully expect 100m but the PS4 is already past that.  The question Im asking is how big is their audience full stop. Fundementally how many people are interested in what the Switch is and its line up of games? Looking at all big titles its the typical pokemon/mario/animal crossing/zelda etc. The Switch is doing amazingly well at tapping into Nintendo's audience but that could just mean its front loaded.

Even with consistent support up until 2017 the 3DS reached a natural saturation point around 80m. What will that be for the Switch?