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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 29 10.47%
 
First half of 2023 23 8.30%
 
Second half of 2023 33 11.91%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.42%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.78%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.53%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.81%
 
Later than above 2 0.72%
 
Never 147 53.07%
 
Total:277
aris4me said:

I was wondering why we say "switch 2 " like it may be a completely different console in terms of sales... and why we won't calculate switch + switch 2 vs ps4 + ps4 pro... Cause all these sales of PS4 are ps4 + ps4 pro (Gen 8 + 8,5 or 9 or I don't know :p )

Revisions have always been combined; nobody separates sales of the PS2 Fat and the PS2 Slim or the DS and the DSi.

People use 'Switch 2' to refer to a full blown successor, a PS5 to Switch's PS4, not a revision or 'Pro'.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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zorg1000 said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

One thing I haven't seen mentioned is how well Nintendo's other handhelds have performed. Here is a brief rundown of each of Nintendo's handhelds by global sales

System Sales
Game Boy 118.69 M
Game Boy Advance 81.51 M
Nintendo DS  154.02M
Nintendo 3DS 75.45 M
Average Sales 107.41 M

Keep in mind too that the GBA was cut off early so it was only on the market for about 4-5 years. But as you can see, the average for Nintendo's handhelds is 107 million. This is already about where the PS4 is at. Switch only needs to sell a bit more above the average which is very doable. Nintendo's Q3 results aren't out yet but so far Switch sales are up about 30 percent through the first 6 months. 

I think this assumption that it can't happen is really driven by people looking at the console side and not the handheld side. There is a reason Nintendo made a hybrid system.

GBA was cut short but on the other hand Gameboy had an insane sales curve thanks to Pokemon & GBC causing it to peak in its 10th year and went 12 years before getting a successor which is unheard of so I think they cancel each other out.

Keep in mind Game Boy was released in a much different time. Game sales were no where what they were today. The NES was considered a phenomenon but only sold 60 million worldwide. Game Boy did have a much longer lifespan than many other consoles with 12 years overall. But I think when you consider that sales were much lower overall then the differences sort of equal out. 



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Never...... yeah never.



It won't, a successor will come out before it reaches the number. I estimate the Switch sells about 100-110 million units lifetime. It started 4 years too late to catch up to Sony. It will be closer between its successor and the PS5.



bookmarked for the future.

I think way too many are banking upon the Switch getting cut short here. But unlike with the Wii, the GBA and the DS, there's simply no reason to do so this time around, and there's no direct competition on the market against the Switch, either. I think all those who don't think it can sell over 110M are in for a treat in a couple years.

Right now, 66.67% think Switch won't outsell the PS4, so pretty much exactly 2/3 of the forums. I'm curious how this will play out and change in the future...



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SammyGiireal said:
It won't, a successor will come out before it reaches the number. I estimate the Switch sells about 100-110 million units lifetime. It started 4 years too late to catch up to Sony. It will be closer between its successor and the PS5.

So what? You think sales stop after a successor?

There's no such thing as starting 4 years too late. Each system will have it's own market life.



PS4 is at 106 million now, it's not going to just magically stop at 110 million.

Really Sony could probably hit 140 mill if they really want to, they haven't even cut to $199.99 let alone $149.99 ... if they wanted that number they could get it. It's a question of what they want to do.

Selling 106 million mostly at $299-$399 is crazy. Even the PS2 needed significant price cuts and DS was $130 or less basically all its product cycle ... for the PS4 to be $300 or more basically all its life cycle to 100+ million is incredible. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 31 January 2020

Nu-13 said:
SammyGiireal said:
It won't, a successor will come out before it reaches the number. I estimate the Switch sells about 100-110 million units lifetime. It started 4 years too late to catch up to Sony. It will be closer between its successor and the PS5.

So what? You think sales stop after a successor?

A feel like people often make this assumption. As the most recent example from Nintendo, the 3DS looks like it'll finish up having sold 12 million after its replacement.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Soundwave said:

PS4 is at 106 million now, it's not going to just magically stop at 110 million.

Really Sony could probably hit 140 mill if they really want to, they haven't even cut to $199.99 let alone $149.99 ... if they wanted that number they could get it. It's a question of what they want to do.

Selling 106 million mostly at $299-$399 is crazy. Even the PS2 needed significant price cuts and DS was $130 or less basically all its product cycle ... for the PS4 to be $300 or more basically all its life cycle to 100+ million is incredible. 

Oh my. By your first sentence, you seem to imply that the switch will only do 110m at best. You must have "interesting" predictions for the next few years.

Very funny. There isn't a realistic scenario for the ps4 to reach those numbers. Sony would have needed a $199 price tag by the end of 2017 or something similar.

I don't really get what you're trying to say on that last paragraph. It appears that you're trying to downplay sales of cheaper products, completely ignoring that price is the most basic part of a business strategy. And for the record, the switch hasn't received a price cut in almost 3 years while the ps4 already had 2 in that time frame and is still tracking ahead. Add that to your list of things to consider.



Never, when the ps5 launches and sony drops the price of ps4 slim, and ps4 games start getting really cheap second hand the ps4 will keep selling, will most likely hit 120 million by the end of this year, and 150 million in 3 years.

The problem with Nintendo is they wont drop the price, on top of that games keep their price too high so there's not much incentive to buy it, specially when the new consoles arrive this year the graphics will be way better than on switch, the difference will be too massive for people to invest such money on a weak switch. Nintendo might make a switch 2, but that means the newer games wouldn't run on the older switch, so if they make a new switch, I doubt the current one would hit 120 million.

If Nintendo wants to catch up to ps4, they need to drop the price of the switch, and specially the price of games, this is the main reason I still prefer my WiiU over the switch, because games on wiiU can be bought at one quarter of the price, sometimes less, games like Mario kart 8, new super Mario U, pikmin 3, wonderful 101, bayonetta all cost me around 10 dollars each. Even breath of the wild cost me 20 dollars, I could pay 60 for the switch but why? Its basically the same game, just resolution is slightly better on switch but not worth 3x the price.

This is key for the ps4 success, games can be bought second hand between 5dollars and 20 dollars, even top exclusives, that's what I paid for spiderman and god of war. And ps store always has sales going on.