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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 31 10.92%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.45%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.32%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.28%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.63%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.46%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.76%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.46%
 
Total:284

If I've said it once, I've said it a hundred times. Switch is going to become the top selling system of all time. In a few years people will look back and see that 2017-2018 was really Switch's slow mode. I just really started to get going in 2019 and it's still accelerating. It's going to easily outsell the PS4 in a few years and then just keep going.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
If I've said it once, I've said it a hundred times. Switch is going to become the top selling system of all time. In a few years people will look back and see that 2017-2018 was really Switch's slow mode. I just really started to get going in 2019 and it's still accelerating. It's going to easily outsell the PS4 in a few years and then just keep going.

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

Last edited by colafitte - on 06 February 2020

colafitte said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
If I've said it once, I've said it a hundred times. Switch is going to become the top selling system of all time. In a few years people will look back and see that 2017-2018 was really Switch's slow mode. I just really started to get going in 2019 and it's still accelerating. It's going to easily outsell the PS4 in a few years and then just keep going.

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

I'll focus just on that or else it would take all day. You say the switch hasn't proved it can sell a lot after year 3-4. That is utterly laughable. The switch has sold a high number in it's first year, increased in it's second year, increased once more on the 3rd year (we're at the end of it) and is on track to increase again for it's 4th year... All without a pricecut yet. This sales curve show the opposite of what you claim. There's no denying reality.



colafitte said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
If I've said it once, I've said it a hundred times. Switch is going to become the top selling system of all time. In a few years people will look back and see that 2017-2018 was really Switch's slow mode. I just really started to get going in 2019 and it's still accelerating. It's going to easily outsell the PS4 in a few years and then just keep going.

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

I am quite sure that during 2018 you predicted that 2018 will be Switch's peak year and it will have trouble to beat the 3DS's lifetime sales. When that ship regarding 2018 being the peak had sailed by mid-2019, you began to highball your 2019 prediction and now act vindicated because Switch's year over year growth wasn't as high as you had predicted in fall 2019. It's honestly hilarious how you talk about getting back to your senses and proceed to claim that Switch has a big challenge ahead of it to beat the Wii's lifetime sales.

Back in 2018 I explained to you how much the software pipeline matters and there are no signs of Switch's pipeline slowing down. Back in 2018 you were convinced that the DS peaking after year 2 was an outlier that should be ignored, then you were proved wrong, now you go back to the same faulty reasoning. Nevermind that 2019 was already supposed to give us the definitive idea of what the future holds for Switch.

For as lofty as The_Liquid_Laser's prediction is, it's still more likely to come true than yours.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
colafitte said:

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

I am quite sure that during 2018 you predicted that 2018 will be Switch's peak year and it will have trouble to beat the 3DS's lifetime sales. When that ship regarding 2018 being the peak had sailed by mid-2019, you began to highball your 2019 prediction and now act vindicated because Switch's year over year growth wasn't as high as you had predicted in fall 2019. It's honestly hilarious how you talk about getting back to your senses and proceed to claim that Switch has a big challenge ahead of it to beat the Wii's lifetime sales.

Back in 2018 I explained to you how much the software pipeline matters and there are no signs of Switch's pipeline slowing down. Back in 2018 you were convinced that the DS peaking after year 2 was an outlier that should be ignored, then you were proved wrong, now you go back to the same faulty reasoning. Nevermind that 2019 was already supposed to give us the definitive idea of what the future holds for Switch.

For as lofty as The_Liquid_Laser's prediction is, it's still more likely to come true than yours.

I say that both colafitte and liquid gamer's prediction have no chance to come true but liquid gamer's will be WAY closer.



Around the Network
Nu-13 said:

I'll focus just on that or else it would take all day. You say the switch hasn't proved it can sell a lot after year 3-4. That is utterly laughable. The switch has sold a high number in it's first year, increased in it's second year, increased once more on the 3rd year (we're at the end of it) and is on track to increase again for it's 4th year... All without a pricecut yet. This sales curve show the opposite of what you claim. There's no denying reality.

Switch has sold a lot in its 1st, 2nd and 3rd year...., and what?, you expect Switch to grow every year because of that?

How is going to be on track if it not even started its 4th year yet!??!? That doesn't make any sense....And how having a model being 100$ is not a kind of pricecut "yet"??. What the sales curve shows, is that Nov-Dec 2019 did not had the same growth YOY like the rest of the year.

RolStoppable said:

I am quite sure that during 2018 you predicted that 2018 will be Switch's peak year and it will have trouble to beat the 3DS's lifetime sales. When that ship regarding 2018 being the peak had sailed by mid-2019, you began to highball your 2019 prediction and now act vindicated because Switch's year over year growth wasn't as high as you had predicted in fall 2019. It's honestly hilarious how you talk about getting back to your senses and proceed to claim that Switch has a big challenge ahead of it to beat the Wii's lifetime sales.

Back in 2018 I explained to you how much the software pipeline matters and there are no signs of Switch's pipeline slowing down. Back in 2018 you were convinced that the DS peaking after year 2 was an outlier that should be ignored, then you were proved wrong, now you go back to the same faulty reasoning. Nevermind that 2019 was already supposed to give us the definitive idea of what the future holds for Switch.

For as lofty as The_Liquid_Laser's prediction is, it's still more likely to come true than yours.

I've never, NEVER, ever said 2018 was going to be peak year, and i've never said Switch was going to have difficulties surpassing 3DS, i always said Switch was going to sell 85M minimum. Where did you get this from??. in 2018 i said that 2019 was going to be a flat year if there was not going to be any revisions or price cuts, something that would have become true if there was not a Lite version. You probably are mistaken me for someone else... I can't have arguments like this if you spread lies about me without any repercussion. Now i have to spend time defending myself when i should not need to....

And i highballed what?!?!? LOL. So, there is a poll in January 2019 asking what we expect Switch is going to do that year. I said then if i have to choose i think 18M, and like i always stated back then, my predictions were based without counting pricecuts or revisions, that if that would happen my prediction would be wrong (but i guess this important point is always ignored....), then we are in March and we see that Switch is doing 20% better than in 2018, and i just admit that the console is doing better than i expected at January and that probably is going to do a little bit better, and then after Lite is announced, LIKE EVERYONE HERE, i expect even another boost from that prediction so then i say that 20M is going to be the most possible outcome. What is anything wrong with that?? You guys act as if your predictions made years or many months ago never change...There a difference with answering what you think is more probable to happen and a prediction. That 18M thing was the former, saying Switch is not going to surpass PS4 is indeed a prediction.

And what are you saying with that NDS thing?? Uggh. When did you proved Switch pipeline has not slowed down?!?! DS peaking later than other great Nintendo consoles and being an outlier is definitively a fact. NES, SNES, N64, GC, Wii, ....all of them peaked before entering the 4th year, only NDS did not. And you kept remind me that i had a mistake in the year of NDS peak as that validates any other point you makeas if you don't get things wrong from time to time....I think is better to never admit that you're wrong like most of you do, than admit inmediately you said something wrong in the very same thread....

And no, Switch is not going to sell more than 120-130M consoles, so no, that prediction is not even close to be more likely than mine...

If something has never change since 2018 is that this Nintendo fan section is still as annoying as ever the moment i made a prediction related to Switch. You could have said you disagree with me, give your opinion and that's it, but instead, you say lies, try to ridiculize me and in conclusion, just annoy me. Thanks for that. I guess you're happy with your thumbs up you get from this...

I still don't understand why you take things so personally here with a gaming machine....god.



colafitte said:
RolStoppable said:

I am quite sure that during 2018 you predicted that 2018 will be Switch's peak year and it will have trouble to beat the 3DS's lifetime sales. When that ship regarding 2018 being the peak had sailed by mid-2019, you began to highball your 2019 prediction and now act vindicated because Switch's year over year growth wasn't as high as you had predicted in fall 2019. It's honestly hilarious how you talk about getting back to your senses and proceed to claim that Switch has a big challenge ahead of it to beat the Wii's lifetime sales.

Back in 2018 I explained to you how much the software pipeline matters and there are no signs of Switch's pipeline slowing down. Back in 2018 you were convinced that the DS peaking after year 2 was an outlier that should be ignored, then you were proved wrong, now you go back to the same faulty reasoning. Nevermind that 2019 was already supposed to give us the definitive idea of what the future holds for Switch.

For as lofty as The_Liquid_Laser's prediction is, it's still more likely to come true than yours.

I've never, NEVER, ever said 2018 was going to be peak year, and i've never said Switch was going to have difficulties surpassing 3DS, i always said Switch was going to sell 85M minimum. Where did you get this from??. in 2018 i said that 2019 was going to be a flat year if there was not going to be any revisions or price cuts, something that would have become true if there was not a Lite version. You probably are mistaken me for someone else... I can't have arguments like this if you spread lies about me without any repercussion. Now i have to spend time defending myself when i should not need to....

And i highballed what?!?!? LOL. So, there is a poll in January 2019 asking what we expect Switch is going to do that year. I said then if i have to choose i think 18M, and like i always stated back then, my predictions were based without counting pricecuts or revisions, that if that would happen my prediction would be wrong (but i guess this important point is always ignored....), then we are in March and we see that Switch is doing 20% better than in 2018, and i just admit that the console is doing better than i expected at January and that probably is going to do a little bit better, and then after Lite is announced, LIKE EVERYONE HERE, i expect even another boost from that prediction so then i say that 20M is going to be the most possible outcome. What is anything wrong with that?? You guys act as if your predictions made years or many months ago never change...There a difference with answering what you think is more probable to happen and a prediction. That 18M thing was the former, saying Switch is not going to surpass PS4 is indeed a prediction.

And what are you saying with that NDS thing?? Uggh. When did you proved Switch pipeline has not slowed down?!?! DS peaking later than other great Nintendo consoles and being an outlier is definitively a fact. NES, SNES, N64, GC, Wii, ....all of them peaked before entering the 4th year, only NDS did not. And you kept remind me that i had a mistake in the year of NDS peak as that validates any other point you makeas if you don't get things wrong from time to time....I think is better to never admit that you're wrong like most of you do, than admit inmediately you said something wrong in the very same thread....

And no, Switch is not going to sell more than 120-130M consoles, so no, that prediction is not even close to be more likely than mine...

If something has never change since 2018 is that this Nintendo fan section is still as annoying as ever the moment i made a prediction related to Switch. You could have said you disagree with me, give your opinion and that's it, but instead, you say lies, try to ridiculize me and in conclusion, just annoy me. Thanks for that. I guess you're happy with your thumbs up you get from this...

I still don't understand why you take things so personally here with a gaming machine....god.

Your 18m prediction concerned shipments for the fiscal year ending March 2020, not sales in calendar year 2019. Regardless, it doesn't make a significant difference.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8965893

colafitte said:

18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

[response of someone else inbetween]

Your point in the price cut still yet to happen for Switch is a good point. Switch is not "far ahead". I did say how much compare to each other in the same timeframe 32m vs 29m (shipped). That's not "far ahead to me". 3DS and Switch sold around 13M during first calendar year and 3DS sold 14M and Switch around 16'5M in the second (according to VGC). There's not so much differnece. And the games coming in 2019 for Switch are very very similar to same IP's 3DS received on its 3rd year. And in my opinion, the price cut will not help as much as people expect either, it will just help the sales to not drop.

As for the games point. I see it as..., people already bought that much switch because the games they wanted were already available and were extremely good, so that brought your consumers to Switch earlier than normal.

Expecting Switch to sell way more than 3DS because its softaware is selling better, is not a good reason. Switch software is selling way better than Wii back then and Wii will be very far ahead in sales in just a few months (because Wii will receive its 2008 sales in next months).

Switch sales are amazing as they are. People are understimating how difficult is to sell more than 15M consoles in a year.... PS3, X360, 3DS weren't capable to do it, and Swtich is doing that at $300 price. If it sells 17-18M in 2019 it will be another resounding success for Nintendo.

You can't use a possible price cut as an excuse now when back then you explicitly said that a price drop will only prevent sales from dropping.

However, I have to concede that there's no Switch lifetime prediction from you that is below 85m.

I am not the one who is taking things too personally here. If you post on a forum, you have to expect that people will respond to your posts and that includes sales predictions and sales scenarios. Switch has performed better in 2019 than you originally expected, but because it didn't meet your high revised prediction of 20.0-20.5m for calendar year 2019, you used the small shortcoming of ~0.7m as justification to almost return to your original 85-90m lifetime prediction. You basically fabricated a "failure" for Switch to have a reason to go back to what you've originally thought about Switch. The sales progression you posted for 95-100m a couple of posts ago was called optimistic by yourself, so your standard range has to fall into 90-95m range at best.

As for Switch's software pipeline, it's the basic principle of software sells hardware. For 2019 NPD reported a higher number of game releases for Switch than for the PS4 and XB1 combined with a Switch total that was comfortably above 1,000. That's why Switch has diverted from the 3DS sales curve despite similar big games being released at a similar point in the lifecycle. That's also why Switch will continue to go strong because there's no end to quality software in sight.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:

Your 18m prediction concerned shipments for the fiscal year ending March 2020, not sales in calendar year 2019. Regardless, it doesn't make a significant difference.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8965893

colafitte said:

18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

[response of someone else inbetween]

Your point in the price cut still yet to happen for Switch is a good point. Switch is not "far ahead". I did say how much compare to each other in the same timeframe 32m vs 29m (shipped). That's not "far ahead to me". 3DS and Switch sold around 13M during first calendar year and 3DS sold 14M and Switch around 16'5M in the second (according to VGC). There's not so much differnece. And the games coming in 2019 for Switch are very very similar to same IP's 3DS received on its 3rd year. And in my opinion, the price cut will not help as much as people expect either, it will just help the sales to not drop.

As for the games point. I see it as..., people already bought that much switch because the games they wanted were already available and were extremely good, so that brought your consumers to Switch earlier than normal.

Expecting Switch to sell way more than 3DS because its softaware is selling better, is not a good reason. Switch software is selling way better than Wii back then and Wii will be very far ahead in sales in just a few months (because Wii will receive its 2008 sales in next months).

Switch sales are amazing as they are. People are understimating how difficult is to sell more than 15M consoles in a year.... PS3, X360, 3DS weren't capable to do it, and Swtich is doing that at $300 price. If it sells 17-18M in 2019 it will be another resounding success for Nintendo.

You can't use a possible price cut as an excuse now when back then you explicitly said that a price drop will only prevent sales from dropping.

However, I have to concede that there's no Switch lifetime prediction from you that is below 85m.

I am not the one who is taking things too personally here. If you post on a forum, you have to expect that people will respond to your posts and that includes sales predictions and sales scenarios. Switch has performed better in 2019 than you originally expected, but because it didn't meet your high revised prediction of 20.0-20.5m for calendar year 2019, you used the small shortcoming of ~0.7m as justification to almost return to your original 85-90m lifetime prediction. You basically fabricated a "failure" for Switch to have a reason to go back to what you've originally thought about Switch. The sales progression you posted for 95-100m a couple of posts ago was called optimistic by yourself, so your standard range has to fall into 90-95m range at best.

As for Switch's software pipeline, it's the basic principle of software sells hardware. For 2019 NPD reported a higher number of game releases for Switch than for the PS4 and XB1 combined with a Switch total that was comfortably above 1,000. That's why Switch has diverted from the 3DS sales curve despite similar big games being released at a similar point in the lifecycle. That's also why Switch will continue to go strong because there's no end to quality software in sight.

I really don't want to make any excuses nor generate any problems with anybody, but what is wrong with what is bolded?. I used those words specifically back then so anyone could not take those numbers as set on stone, just as an opinion at the moment. I thoght they will aim for 18M, and that i wouldn't be surprised if it in the end it was less than that, and that's all.

I said that a "flat year" was more probable than a 20M+ year....and... again, i was right??? Where's the problem here??. In this post i don't state specifically that i made this prediction based in no price cuts and revisions but i'm pretty sure i added that statement various times in other posts. 

I only said 20M+ was going to happen AFTER Lite was announced, because of course, after that news, i updated my prediction. A prediction i don't consider "high" as you say. And what shortcoming of 0'7M are referring to?, was not Switch 1'5M overtracked by VGC and my own estimations (in fact, we still don't know for sure what Nintendo considers more than 48M lifetime, so we can't know for sure how much Switch sold in 2019, it could be from 29'5M to 48'5M, so around 19M for the year) after the update?.

I didn't come back to my 85-90M prediction..., i clearly said that i expect around 100M in the end (around 95M at the end of ...2023 i think i said). 85-90M would be only Switch regular models. Again, what's wrong with that?

I didn't fabricate anything. I said i expected 20-20'5M and that Switch didn't meet my expectations. Now it seems, that expecting 20M or more after Lite in 2019 was "highballing". I must have visited a different VGC forum in 2019 as yours i guess....

As for the Switch software pipeline...., did not software sales in 2019 performed really close in total compared to 2018 despite almost 20M more consoles sold??, or i am being mistaken here? I don't care how many games a console receive, i only care how much they sell. And sorry, but except Animal Crossing, next Zelda and Metroid Prime, we don't know exactly what games are coming the next few years yet..., so we can't assume the quality will be the same as 2017-2019.

You should stop trying to paint me as an enemy of Switch. In fact, the only warning i received here in 10 years, was, ironically, defending Switch against a comparison with Microsoft (it would be even more ironic if it was against a comparison with PS4..., maybe next time). Just because i explain my predictions in more detail than most, trying to explain why i think things are gonna happen, doesn't make my predictions any more anti Switch or something similar. It just makes it more easily for anybody to rememeber me i said something wrong 12 months ago....I do the same with PS4 but nobody ever critize me for that...



colafitte said:

I really don't want to make any excuses nor generate any problems with anybody, but what is wrong with what is bolded?. I used those words specifically back then so anyone could not take those numbers as set on stone, just as an opinion at the moment. I thoght they will aim for 18M, and that i wouldn't be surprised if it in the end it was less than that, and that's all.

1. I said that a "flat year" was more probable than a 20M+ year....and... again, i was right??? Where's the problem here??. In this post i don't state specifically that i made this prediction based in no price cuts and revisions but i'm pretty sure i added that statement various times in other posts. 

2. I only said 20M+ was going to happen AFTER Lite was announced, because of course, after that news, i updated my prediction. A prediction i don't consider "high" as you say. And what shortcoming of 0'7M are referring to?, was not Switch 1'5M overtracked by VGC and my own estimations (in fact, we still don't know for sure what Nintendo considers more than 48M lifetime, so we can't know for sure how much Switch sold in 2019, it could be from 29'5M to 48'5M, so around 19M for the year) after the update?.

3. I didn't come back to my 85-90M prediction..., i clearly said that i expect around 100M in the end (around 95M at the end of ...2023 i think i said). 85-90M would be only Switch regular models. Again, what's wrong with that?

2. I didn't fabricate anything. I said i expected 20-20'5M and that Switch didn't meet my expectations. Now it seems, that expecting 20M or more after Lite in 2019 was "highballing". I must have visited a different VGC forum in 2019 as yours i guess....

4. As for the Switch software pipeline...., did not software sales in 2019 performed really close in total compared to 2018 despite almost 20M more consoles sold??, or i am being mistaken here? I don't care how many games a console receive, i only care how much they sell. And sorry, but except Animal Crossing, next Zelda and Metroid Prime, we don't know exactly what games are coming the next few years yet..., so we can't assume the quality will be the same as 2017-2019.

5. You should stop trying to paint me as an enemy of Switch. In fact, the only warning i received here in 10 years, was, ironically, defending Switch against a comparison with Microsoft (it would be even more ironic if it was against a comparison with PS4..., maybe next time). Just because i explain my predictions in more detail than most, trying to explain why i think things are gonna happen, doesn't make my predictions any more anti Switch or something similar. It just makes it more easily for anybody to rememeber me i said something wrong 12 months ago....I do the same with PS4 but nobody ever critize me for that...

1. You said that in a thread concerning shipments. A flat year would have been 17m, the projected result is 19.5m. That's a value that is closer to 20m than 17m, so you were wrong.

2. Sell-through in calendar year 2019 was 19.3m, so it fell short of your predicted range of 20.0-20.5m by 0.7m. You've acted as if those 0.7m make a huge difference. And yes, your predicted range can very well be considered highballing after the pessimism you had displayed before where a price cut would not lead to an increase in sales, but merely help Switch sales to remain flat.

3. You also clearly stated that 100m is an optimistic expectation and that even with that optimism aren't a sure thing. That means that if the optimism were to be removed, the prediction would be 95m at most. Or in other words, 95-100m with optimistic outlook, 85-90 with pessisimistic outlook, 90-95m with neither optimism or pessimism.

4. Software pipeline is not the same as software sales. The reason why the software pipeline is important (quality of releases and quantity of releases) is because it has been a major factor for every console in history. The more games release and the more good games release, the higher the chance to sustain hardware sales on a high level. In other words, looking at the health of the software pipeline provides a very good idea how sales of any given console will develop and that makes the software pipeline an essential factor for predictions. We know that Nintendo will keep making high profile games for Switch because they have no other console to support. In this case, the bad assumption to make would be to believe otherwise.

While it's unrelated to the point, here are the software shipments for calendar year 2018 and 2019: 111.05m compared to 147.04m, growth of 32%.

5. You should stop assuming that you are in a discussion because of nothing more than a low Switch prediction. Your line of reasoning is illogical and that would be the case regardless of talking to a Nintendo fan or PS fan. It's that illogical portion that made me respond to you in the first place, especially because you started off your post with "come to your senses" and "people live in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales." This isn't even about Switch vs. PS4 like it's written in the thread title, but rather Switch vs. Wii which you used for measurement.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

It won't pass the 130M PS4 will have sold when all is said and done.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."