It's Wii all over again. The Switch is probably going to sell 53M-54M in it's first 3 years on the market, then some expect it to sell another 100M+ in the following 3 years? Ok...
I gave neither a 100m number or 3 year time spam. You wasted a great opportunity of not putting words in people's mouths.
You meant PS4 right ? I agree with you. At the worst PS4 will get to 130M. At best I don't know .. 150M isn't out of the question with proper price cuts, marketing and enough price difference from PS5. 199$ vs 499/599$ I think can do the job.
At the current pace the ps4 is declining, 130m isn't even the best it could reach regardless of price cuts and ps5 price (the latter being pretty irrelevant to the outcome anyway). 120m would be a better estimative with a margin for error of a few million.
I misread your post as the Switch beating the PS2, not Switch 2, which is still crazy. Still, I don't see the Switch getting close to the PS2, either. How many years do you actually expect the Switch to continue putting up large numbers? Switch still has 80M to go to hit 130M. That would be 20M for every year in the next 4 years. That's not going to happen.
I think we are going to see a small drop this year in sales. But, even if that doesn't happen, 2021 is when we will 100% start seeing significant decreases. All of Nintendo's big hitters will have launched. It will have had a $199 SKU for more than a year, so price cuts won't have quite the impact as they would for PS4. And its novelty as the new toy on the block will have worn off as the new consoles will be hitting their stride.
Speaking of PS4, it's interesting how Nintendo fans always see the worst case for it. Before it even released, they spelled doom and gloom for it because the Wii U failed, and that was the followup to the popular Wii. Now, while PS fans saw doom and gloom for the Switch before it launched, most of that died within 6-12 months or so after Switch proved itself, changing to believing it would pass the 3DS, maybe even hit 100M. In contrast, we have had many saying the PS4 wouldn't hit 100M or pass the Wii throughout the gen, regardless of PS history. Even as it was quickly nearing 80M. Then, it wouldn't hit 110M, which it is probably only 2M away from that, now, looking at shipments (106M sold-through.) Now, it might not even hit 120M, even though it is only 12M away from that.
It's also ridiculous to say that price cuts will have little to no affect, when we have evidence just recently that that is completely false. PS4 is now over 6 years old, yet sold 190K in just two weeks in Japan because it was on sale. In the US, it has been on sale for $250-$260 on Amazon for the past month and it is constantly in the Top 20 for video games. The demand is still there, just not for a $299 price. A cut to $249 will definitely decrease the natural declines. Even more so at $199.
And according to Sony's sell-through estimates, sales dropped 20% in 2019. Even if sales dropped worse, to say a 30% drop YOY, the PS4 would still sell 10.1M in 2020. Meaning it would be at 116.1M in just sell-trough, 117M-118M in shipments. Even if it dropped 40% in 2021, that would be a sell-through of 122.2M, or 123M-124M in shipments. 2022 and 2023 combined will most likely see the same sales as 2021, ~6.1M, for a final number of ~128.3M. Of course, if we see a drop to $249, and maybe a $149 Black Friday deal, I suspect PS4 to drop just 20%-25% this year. And if it drops to $199 in 2021, we should see a drop of only 30%-35%.