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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS4 sells through 106 million, Over 1.15 BILLION Games Sold!

yo33331 said:

At the current pace the ps4 is declining, 130m isn't even the best it could reach regardless of price cuts and ps5 price (the latter being pretty irrelevant to the outcome anyway). 120m would be a better estimative with a margin for error of a few million.

I can't see PS4 doing 10M this year and only 4M in the next couple of years and die. Out of the question.

As I said in one of my previous posts, PS4 is doing 6 years on the market exactly as PS2 did them ( in terms of sales ) and all of a sudden now it will make the worst 3-4 dying years that ever sony console have done in its dying years ? How is this making sence ? I know there would be PS5 and they may not drop the price and etc. Always there can be some reasons for weak sales but this is just out of possibility. It can at worst worst case (with no marketing and no price cuts and 399$ PS5) to reach 125M, but you are even doubting 120M ? Ridiculous.

And who said the ps4 is going to sell 10m this year? Ps5 is irrelevant to ps4 sales and a price cut will help very little this late. It's sales will simply keep declining every year until getting discontinued. And it wouldn't be worse than the psp, ps3 and psvita dying years.



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Nu-13 said:
yo33331 said:

I can't see PS4 doing 10M this year and only 4M in the next couple of years and die. Out of the question.

As I said in one of my previous posts, PS4 is doing 6 years on the market exactly as PS2 did them ( in terms of sales ) and all of a sudden now it will make the worst 3-4 dying years that ever sony console have done in its dying years ? How is this making sence ? I know there would be PS5 and they may not drop the price and etc. Always there can be some reasons for weak sales but this is just out of possibility. It can at worst worst case (with no marketing and no price cuts and 399$ PS5) to reach 125M, but you are even doubting 120M ? Ridiculous.

And who said the ps4 is going to sell 10m this year? Ps5 is irrelevant to ps4 sales and a price cut will help very little this late. It's sales will simply keep declining every year until getting discontinued. And it wouldn't be worse than the psp, ps3 and psvita dying years.

well this is what are you saying, if PS4 finish at 120M this means this year 10M and what lefts ? 4M more ? which is way worst than ps3 and psp dying years. Also this is console which to this point is on track with PS2 sales and now it will die worst than psp or ps3 ? or what 8M now and 6M after this ? again worst. PS3 did close to 8M after ps4 launched and psp did around the same too. I don't know why are so confident people that are giving PS4 bad numbers, why are you all so confident as you are Sony respectives and you are 100% sure if there will be price drop and what would be the price difference on ps4 and ps5 and even if sony will do something to push ps4 sales in the end or not ... This is stupid. How can be all so sure in something that clearly is 50/50 chance of happening in every possible situation? even if we see the history there is like 70/30 for PS4 that it will have good selling perfomance in its last years.

And no price cut that lately will not help very little. Big reason of PS1 and PS2 selling like they did in their dying years was because of 2 major price drops to 99$ and then 49$ for the PS1 and 129$ and later 99$ for the PS2.(which now with the inflation in 2019 these prices would be around 149 and close to 199$)

The lower price is making something more affordable for newcomers and for kids and when you go to the store and see PS5 at 599 or 499 or even 399(which I bet it won't be the price) and you see PS4 for 199$ next to one of these prices, and you are not hardcore gamer, most probably you would buy the cheaper option, which is also good option for gaming because of all released games to date and preety much every game that will be released in the next 2-3 to the new expensives consoles as well.

P.S. I mentiond PS5 price because if PS5 is 499 or 599$ and PS4 is 249 or 199$ there is bigger chance many people (who are new to gaming or are casual gamers) will buy PS4 over PS5 because is very alternative option and way cheaper, opposite to PS5 costing 399$ and PS4 for example the same 299$ which then preety much everyone would get PS5, and this would be the worst possbile scenario for PS4 sales, and even then I am sure that PS4 will reach 125M lifetime (more than your 120M prediction).

Last edited by yo33331 - on 09 January 2020

yo33331 said:
Nu-13 said:

And who said the ps4 is going to sell 10m this year? Ps5 is irrelevant to ps4 sales and a price cut will help very little this late. It's sales will simply keep declining every year until getting discontinued. And it wouldn't be worse than the psp, ps3 and psvita dying years.

well this is what are you saying, if PS4 finish at 120M this means this year 10M and what lefts ? 4M more ? which is way worst than ps3 and psp dying years. Also this is console which to this point is on track with PS2 sales and now it will die worst than psp or ps3 ? or what 8M now and 6M after this ? again worst. PS3 did close to 8M after ps4 launched and psp did around the same too. I don't know why are so confident people that are giving PS4 bad numbers, why are you all so confident as you are Sony respectives and you are 100% sure if there will be price drop and what would be the price difference on ps4 and ps5 and even if sony will do something to push ps4 sales in the end or not ... This is stupid. How can be all so sure in something that clearly is 50/50 chance of happening in every possible situation? even if we see the history there is like 70/30 for PS4 that it will have good selling perfomance in its last years.

And no price cut that lately will not help very little. Big reason of PS1 and PS2 selling like they did in their dying years was because of 2 major price drops to 99$ and then 49$ for the PS1 and 129$ and later 99$ for the PS2.(which now with the inflation in 2019 these prices would be around 149 and close to 199$)

The lower price is making something more affordable for newcomers and for kids and when you go to the store and see PS5 at 599 or 499 or even 399(which I bet it won't be the price) and you see PS4 for 199$ next to one of these prices, and you are not hardcore gamer, most probably you would buy the cheaper option, which is also good option for gaming because of all released games to date and preety much every game that will be released in the next 2-3 to the new expensives consoles as well.

P.S. I mentiond PS5 price because if PS5 is 499 or 599$ and PS4 is 249 or 199$ there is bigger chance many people (who are new to gaming or are casual gamers) will buy PS4 over PS5 because is very alternative option and way cheaper, opposite to PS5 costing 399$ and PS4 for example the same 299$ which then preety much everyone would get PS5, and this would be the worst possbile scenario for PS4 sales, and even then I am sure that PS4 will reach 125M lifetime (more than your 120M prediction).

Oh please, do explain that because it makes no sense. I do not expect ps4 to sell 10m in 2020.

Price cuts this late have very little impact. You claim ps and ps2 only sold that much after their successors BECAUSE of pricecuts without any data to back it up. Those were already succesful consoles being late introduced in developing markets that greatly contributed to sales. Pricing merely helped. The ps5 doesn't matter because 99% of people who are only buying a ps4 this late wouldn't even consider a $399-499 system.



Nu-13 said:
thismeintiel said:

It's Wii all over again. The Switch is probably going to sell 53M-54M in it's first 3 years on the market, then some expect it to sell another 100M+ in the following 3 years? Ok...

I gave neither a 100m number or 3 year time spam. You wasted a great opportunity of not putting words in people's mouths.

yo33331 said:

You meant PS4 right ? I agree with you. At the worst PS4 will get to 130M. At best I don't know .. 150M isn't out of the question with proper price cuts, marketing and enough price difference from PS5. 199$ vs 499/599$ I think can do the job.

At the current pace the ps4 is declining, 130m isn't even the best it could reach regardless of price cuts and ps5 price (the latter being pretty irrelevant to the outcome anyway). 120m would be a better estimative with a margin for error of a few million.

I misread your post as the Switch beating the PS2, not Switch 2, which is still crazy.  Still, I don't see the Switch getting close to the PS2, either.  How many years do you actually expect the Switch to continue putting up large numbers?  Switch still has 80M to go to hit 130M.  That would be 20M for every year in the next 4 years.  That's not going to happen. 

I think we are going to see a small drop this year in sales.  But, even if that doesn't happen, 2021 is when we will 100% start seeing significant decreases.  All of Nintendo's big hitters will have launched.  It will have had a $199 SKU for more than a year, so price cuts won't have quite the impact as they would for PS4.  And its novelty as the new toy on the block will have worn off as the new consoles will be hitting their stride.

Speaking of PS4, it's interesting how Nintendo fans always see the worst case for it.  Before it even released, they spelled doom and gloom for it because the Wii U failed, and that was the followup to the popular Wii.  Now, while PS fans saw doom and gloom for the Switch before it launched, most of that died within 6-12 months or so after Switch proved itself, changing to believing it would pass the 3DS, maybe even hit 100M.  In contrast, we have had many saying the PS4 wouldn't hit 100M or pass the Wii throughout the gen, regardless of PS history.  Even as it was quickly nearing 80M.  Then, it wouldn't hit 110M, which it is probably only 2M away from that, now, looking at shipments (106M sold-through.)  Now, it might not even hit 120M, even though it is only 12M away from that. 

It's also ridiculous to say that price cuts will have little to no affect, when we have evidence just recently that that is completely false.  PS4 is now over 6 years old, yet sold 190K in just two weeks in Japan because it was on sale.  In the US, it has been on sale for $250-$260 on Amazon for the past month and it is constantly in the Top 20 for video games.  The demand is still there, just not for a $299 price. A cut to $249 will definitely decrease the natural declines.  Even more so at $199.

And according to Sony's sell-through estimates, sales dropped 20% in 2019.  Even if sales dropped worse, to say a 30% drop YOY, the PS4 would still sell 10.1M in 2020.  Meaning it would be at 116.1M in just sell-trough, 117M-118M in shipments.  Even if it dropped 40% in 2021, that would be a sell-through of 122.2M, or 123M-124M in shipments.  2022 and 2023 combined will most likely see the same sales as 2021, ~6.1M, for a final number of ~128.3M.  Of course, if we see a drop to $249, and maybe a $149 Black Friday deal, I suspect PS4 to drop just 20%-25% this year.  And if it drops to $199 in 2021, we should see a drop of only 30%-35%.



Keybladewielder said:

Fantastic tracking by the sales team

Thank you! I feel like I am getting better at hardware tracking than when ioi passed the task onto the sales team. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Anyone who thinks a pricecut after what 3 or 4 years wont do anything for the ps4(def if its a 100dollar one) should maybe look at japan last holiday and the us how much it sold. Ps4 is stil not at a sweet spot 299 is stil expensive, a 50 or 100 dollar cut would do quit a lot mixed with final fantasy 7 remake and the last of us 2.

Ps4 wil with ease reach 120mill.
106 in 2019
114 in 2020
120 in 2021

With ease.



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

Nu-13 said:
yo33331 said:

I can't see PS4 doing 10M this year and only 4M in the next couple of years and die. Out of the question.

As I said in one of my previous posts, PS4 is doing 6 years on the market exactly as PS2 did them ( in terms of sales ) and all of a sudden now it will make the worst 3-4 dying years that ever sony console have done in its dying years ? How is this making sence ? I know there would be PS5 and they may not drop the price and etc. Always there can be some reasons for weak sales but this is just out of possibility. It can at worst worst case (with no marketing and no price cuts and 399$ PS5) to reach 125M, but you are even doubting 120M ? Ridiculous.

And who said the ps4 is going to sell 10m this year? Ps5 is irrelevant to ps4 sales and a price cut will help very little this late. It's sales will simply keep declining every year until getting discontinued. And it wouldn't be worse than the psp, ps3 and psvita dying years.

What games does Switch have in 2020, thats as big as :

Final Fantasy 7 Remake?
Last of Us Part 2? 
ghosts of tsushima?
CyberPunk 2077?
Watchdogs Legions?
Marvels Avengers?


PS4 is gonna have access to the biggest new titles of 2020.
A price cut should still do some work imo.

2019 -> 2020 is likely gonna only be a small drop, so from 14m -> 10-12m in 2020.



Nu-13 said:
yo33331 said:

I can't see PS4 doing 10M this year and only 4M in the next couple of years and die. Out of the question.

As I said in one of my previous posts, PS4 is doing 6 years on the market exactly as PS2 did them ( in terms of sales ) and all of a sudden now it will make the worst 3-4 dying years that ever sony console have done in its dying years ? How is this making sence ? I know there would be PS5 and they may not drop the price and etc. Always there can be some reasons for weak sales but this is just out of possibility. It can at worst worst case (with no marketing and no price cuts and 399$ PS5) to reach 125M, but you are even doubting 120M ? Ridiculous.

And who said the ps4 is going to sell 10m this year? Ps5 is irrelevant to ps4 sales and a price cut will help very little this late. It's sales will simply keep declining every year until getting discontinued. And it wouldn't be worse than the psp, ps3 and psvita dying years.

Yeah I have read some similar statements about the fact PS4 will never pass the Wii some years ago.

You Nintendo fanboys aren't very good with prediction. 

⚠️ WARNED: Flaming ~ CGI

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 10 January 2020

JRPGfan said:
Nu-13 said:

And who said the ps4 is going to sell 10m this year? Ps5 is irrelevant to ps4 sales and a price cut will help very little this late. It's sales will simply keep declining every year until getting discontinued. And it wouldn't be worse than the psp, ps3 and psvita dying years.

What games does Switch have in 2020, thats as big as :

Final Fantasy 7 Remake?
Last of Us Part 2? 
ghosts of tsushima?
CyberPunk 2077?
Watchdogs Legions?
Marvels Avengers?


PS4 is gonna have access to the biggest new titles of 2020.
A price cut should still do some work imo.

2019 -> 2020 is likely gonna only be a small drop, so from 14m -> 10-12m in 2020.

And you can add Resident Evil 3.



Keiji said:
JRPGfan said:

What games does Switch have in 2020, thats as big as :

Final Fantasy 7 Remake?
Last of Us Part 2? 
ghosts of tsushima?
CyberPunk 2077?
Watchdogs Legions?
Marvels Avengers?
Resident Evil 3 - Remake?

PS4 is gonna have access to the biggest new titles of 2020.
A price cut should still do some work imo.

2019 -> 2020 is likely gonna only be a small drop, so from 14m -> 10-12m in 2020.

And you can add Resident Evil 3.

Yeah that could be a big one too.
My point was just nintendo wont have a title as big in 2020, as the ones listed above.

Unless Breath of the Wild 2 is in 2020, or a new Mario Oddessey.