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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS4 sells through 106 million, Over 1.15 BILLION Games Sold!

Barkley said:
Farsala said:
My prediction for PS4 remains unchanged from past sales threads with a range of 115m-120m. This prediction includes the assumption of no price cuts from Sony, as I don't expect it this late.

PS3 sell-through (2013 - End of Life) = 14.9m

So if PS4 only matches the PS3 in this period (2020 - End of Life) it reaches 120.9m in sales. But PS4 has outperformed the PS3 in every other time period, I don't see why it would suddenly stop now.

In terms of shipments PS3 managed 7m after the launch of the PS4. PS4 is forecast to hit 110m by march, so if it can then ship another 3m in April-November they then only have to match the PS3 in post-successor shipments to hit 120m.

Basically anything less than 120m seems extremely unlikely. It would have to perform worse than the PS3 in this period.

At its current price ratio, it will perform worse than the PS3. The PS3 was a $599 console on sale for ~$249 by its end. The PS4 is a $399 console sold for $299.



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Nu-13 said:
CuCabeludo said:

I don't see it happening because there are more choices to play multiplat games today compared to the first years of PS2 (which was the house of a lot of third party exclusives for a good period of time and also sold well as a cheap DVD player rather than only a console). And over the next decade cloud gaming will also see a considerable expansion, one more option to play games for the folks that don't want to invest in any gaming hardware and will prefer play on their phones, macbooks, tablets and potato machines.

But the switch is already on track to get relatively "close" to ps2 numbers. A switch 2 that gets even better support than the switch (and since launch, not after years) would be the first console in a long time with the potential to beat ps2.

Don't know how you arrived at that conclusion. Yes the SW is faster to 50M than the PS4, but by just like 3 months or so. The PS4 is going to end up being a 120M-125Mselling console, I really don't see how the switch is going to end up near the PS2 (so that's like 135M+) before the switch 2 comes about, which should happen around 2023/2024.

A lot o external factors led to the PS2 selling as well as it did. A collection of which is likely never to be replicated again. People tend to forget that when the PS2 hit that milestone, we didn't have smartphones and tablets, and both Nintendo and Xbox had consoles that sold around 30M units each or so. Very very very different times.



Nu-13 said:
CuCabeludo said:

I don't see it happening because there are more choices to play multiplat games today compared to the first years of PS2 (which was the house of a lot of third party exclusives for a good period of time and also sold well as a cheap DVD player rather than only a console). And over the next decade cloud gaming will also see a considerable expansion, one more option to play games for the folks that don't want to invest in any gaming hardware and will prefer play on their phones, macbooks, tablets and potato machines.

But the switch is already on track to get relatively "close" to ps2 numbers. A switch 2 that gets even better support than the switch (and since launch, not after years) would be the first console in a long time with the potential to beat ps2.



Keiji said:
Nu-13 said:

But the switch is already on track to get relatively "close" to ps2 numbers. A switch 2 that gets even better support than the switch (and since launch, not after years) would be the first console in a long time with the potential to beat ps2.

It's Wii all over again. The Switch is probably going to sell 53M-54M in it's first 3 years on the market, then some expect it to sell another 100M+ in the following 3 years? Ok...



Nu-13 said:
CuCabeludo said:

No console will sell more than PS2. The PS2 sold so well due to the large number of third party exclusive games it had. If you wanted to play a game, even a third party game, you had no other option but PS2. Now third party exclusivity is very rare, when it happens it is timed exclusivity (usually 1 year). Also it was the cheapest dvd player on the market. But now streaming is becoming more popular than buying movies in Blu-ray.

To say no console ever will is wrong. It is a really high bar to cross but not impossible. As it stands, the hypothetical switch 2 has the best chances to do so out of consoles coming in the near future.

There is absolutely zero evidence that a switch 2 could pull PS2 numbers. A switch 2 could pull a DS to 3DS numbers for all we know, given it won't be a new exciting idea I'd speculate that's a more probable outcome. Although there's also zero evidence of that outcome aswell. 



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Farsala said:
My prediction for PS4 remains unchanged from past sales threads with a range of 115m-120m. This prediction includes the assumption of no price cuts from Sony, as I don't expect it this late.

At $299 in 2020, sales will drop hard to below 10m like ZhugeEx says. 9m until PS5 launch would put it at 115m, and at $299 in 2021 next to a $399 PS5, less than 5m sales is expected. This is good for a smooth transition into the PS5, but the PS4 sales will suffer.7

Your "predictions" are heavily flawed ,ps4 at the end will be around 130mill, no way ps5 will launch at 399, more like 499.

Ps4 will get a pricedrop

Last edited by xl-klaudkil - on 09 January 2020

 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

Reaching 100 million units is basically a major milestone for every manufacturer. Even though the Switch will reach the 80-90 million units with ease, all units are a completely different game after that.

There is as much as little evidence that the PS4 could reach 130-150 million units. Let the price drop to 199 dollars, along with bundles with Tsushima, Cyberpunk, FF or TLOU2, and the PS5 could have a much better year than the 10 million units predicted.

Personally, in my opinion, only the PS5 has the most likely chance of trumping the PS2.

Last edited by Panicradio - on 09 January 2020

Panicradio said:
Reaching 100 million units is basically a major milestone for every manufacturer. Even though the Switch will reach the 80-90 million units with ease, all units are a completely different game after that.

There is as much as little evidence that the PS5 could reach 130-150 million units. Let the price drop to 199 dollars, along with bundles with Tsushima, Cyberpunk, FF or TLOU2, and the PS5 could have a much better year than the 10 million units predicted.

Personally, in my opinion, only the PS5 has the most likely chance of trumping the PS2.

You meant PS4 right ? I agree with you. At the worst PS4 will get to 130M. At best I don't know .. 150M isn't out of the question with proper price cuts, marketing and enough price difference from PS5. 199$ vs 499/599$ I think can do the job.



Yes, PS4. 🙂 

Last edited by Panicradio - on 09 January 2020

Wow... 1.15billion games sold? If they just make 5 bucks per game from royalities, that's 5 billion dollars already. Not to mention the extremely profitable monthly subs and hardware where they never made any price reduction.

Sony, time to fork out more money into game development to make PS more stronger!