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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS4 sells through 106 million, Over 1.15 BILLION Games Sold!

JRPGfan said:
Keiji said:

And you can add Resident Evil 3.

Yeah that could be a big one too.
My point was just nintendo wont have a title as big in 2020, as the ones listed above.

Unless Breath of the Wild 2 is in 2020, or a new Mario Oddessey.

Animal Crossing New Horizons.

That one can sell more than any other PS4 exclusive this year. Watch out with that....



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JRPGfan said:
Keiji said:

And you can add Resident Evil 3.

Yeah that could be a big one too.
My point was just nintendo wont have a title as big in 2020, as the ones listed above.

Unless Breath of the Wild 2 is in 2020, or a new Mario Oddessey.

Nintendo is known to launch their biggest games in the second half of the year, so it is pointless to jump to that conclusion yet. Also animal crossing exists 



thismeintiel said:
Nu-13 said:

I gave neither a 100m number or 3 year time spam. You wasted a great opportunity of not putting words in people's mouths.

At the current pace the ps4 is declining, 130m isn't even the best it could reach regardless of price cuts and ps5 price (the latter being pretty irrelevant to the outcome anyway). 120m would be a better estimative with a margin for error of a few million.

I misread your post as the Switch beating the PS2, not Switch 2, which is still crazy.  Still, I don't see the Switch getting close to the PS2, either.  How many years do you actually expect the Switch to continue putting up large numbers?  Switch still has 80M to go to hit 130M. That would be 20M for every year in the next 4 years.  That's not going to happen. 

I think we are going to see a small drop this year in sales. But, even if that doesn't happen, 2021 is when we will 100% start seeing significant decreases. All of Nintendo's big hitters will have launched.  It will have had a $199 SKU for more than a year, so price cuts won't have quite the impact as they would for PS4.  And its novelty as the new toy on the block will have worn off as the new consoles will be hitting their stride.

Speaking of PS4, it's interesting how Nintendo fans always see the worst case for it. Before it even released, they spelled doom and gloom for it because the Wii U failed, and that was the followup to the popular Wii.  Now, while PS fans saw doom and gloom for the Switch before it launched, most of that died within 6-12 months or so after Switch proved itself, changing to believing it would pass the 3DS, maybe even hit 100M.  In contrast, we have had many saying the PS4 wouldn't hit 100M or pass the Wii throughout the gen, regardless of PS history.  Even as it was quickly nearing 80M.  Then, it wouldn't hit 110M, which it is probably only 2M away from that, now, looking at shipments (106M sold-through.)  Now, it might not even hit 120M, even though it is only 12M away from that. 

It's also ridiculous to say that price cuts will have little to no affect, when we have evidence just recently that that is completely false. PS4 is now over 6 years old, yet sold 190K in just two weeks in Japan because it was on sale.  In the US, it has been on sale for $250-$260 on Amazon for the past month and it is constantly in the Top 20 for video games.  The demand is still there, just not for a $299 price. A cut to $249 will definitely decrease the natural declines.  Even more so at $199.

And according to Sony's sell-through estimates, sales dropped 20% in 2019. Even if sales dropped worse, to say a 30% drop YOY, the PS4 would still sell 10.1M in 2020.  Meaning it would be at 116.1M in just sell-trough, 117M-118M in shipments. Even if it dropped 40% in 2021, that would be a sell-through of 122.2M, or 123M-124M in shipments.  2022 and 2023 combined will most likely see the same sales as 2021, ~6.1M, for a final number of ~128.3M.  Of course, if we see a drop to $249, and maybe a $149 Black Friday deal, I suspect PS4 to drop just 20%-25% this year.  And if it drops to $199 in 2021, we should see a drop of only 30%-35%.

So you think the switch will magically stop selling 4 years from now? I think the switch will sell around 26m in 2020, a little over 20m in 2021, around 14m in 2022 and then sell some more over the following years.

No, you don't. You are SAYING it, which is different.

You drop the discussion for this petty jab at nintendo fans during the same post where you unrealistically claim 2020 will be lower than 2019 for the switch and near the end says "even IF ps4 drops 30% yoy in 2020 and 40% in 2021", both being unrealistically optimistic. You also keep mentioning shipments while ignoring that as the system ages, the gap between shipments and sell through will shrink untill there is no gap.

My post from bellow serves to show how ridiculous your mention of Japan is: You should learn the difference between temporary and permanent. Both this and last holidays, sony made a HUGE temporary deal for the ps4, consisting of price cut and several free games. Being time restrained and during the biggest period of the year, of course it's going to show a big increase in sales followed by a colossal fall when it ends. A permanent price cut would have nowhere near the same short term impact and would only serve to slow the decline a little.

xl-klaudkil said:
Anyone who thinks a pricecut after what 3 or 4 years wont do anything for the ps4(def if its a 100dollar one) should maybe look at japan last holiday and the us how much it sold. Ps4 is stil not at a sweet spot 299 is stil expensive, a 50 or 100 dollar cut would do quit a lot mixed with final fantasy 7 remake and the last of us 2.

Ps4 wil with ease reach 120mill.
106 in 2019
114 in 2020
120 in 2021

With ease.

You should learn the difference between temporary and permanent. Both this and last holidays, sony made a HUGE temporary deal for the ps4, consisting of price cut and several free games. Being time restrained and during the biggest period of the year, of course it's going to show a big increase in sales followed by a colossal fall when it ends. A permanent price cut would have nowhere near the same short term impact and would only serve to slow the decline a little.

JRPGfan said:
Nu-13 said:

And who said the ps4 is going to sell 10m this year? Ps5 is irrelevant to ps4 sales and a price cut will help very little this late. It's sales will simply keep declining every year until getting discontinued. And it wouldn't be worse than the psp, ps3 and psvita dying years.

What games does Switch have in 2020, thats as big as :

Final Fantasy 7 Remake?
Last of Us Part 2? 
ghosts of tsushima?
CyberPunk 2077?
Watchdogs Legions?
Marvels Avengers?


PS4 is gonna have access to the biggest new titles of 2020.
A price cut should still do some work imo.

2019 -> 2020 is likely gonna only be a small drop, so from 14m -> 10-12m in 2020.

I'll begin by asking what the fuck does the switch have to do with this? It wasn't even mentioned. Anyway, only the first 2 on that list could be really big. Animal crossing will be bigger than any of those games and we don't know the rest of the lineup. Botw2 will be huge and nintendo always have some multi million sellers throughout the year. Then there's third party games.

You will be extremely dissapointed if you trully expect those numbers for ps4 in 2020.



MasonADC said:

Nintendo is known to launch their biggest games in the second half of the year...

Microsoft is known to launch most of their biggest Xbox games in the second half of the year... but Nintendo?



Conina said:
MasonADC said:

Nintendo is known to launch their biggest games in the second half of the year...

Microsoft is known to launch most of their biggest Xbox games in the second half of the year... but Nintendo?

This is a bad way to argue it anyway but well over 50% of that list released in the second half of the year.



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Nu-13 said:

This is a bad way to argue it anyway but well over 50% of that list released in the second half of the year.

And over a third of that list released in the first half of the year.

Which is a much higher share than the other publishers (Microsoft, EA, Ubisoft and Activision for sure, probably also Sony) release in the first half of the year.



trunkswd said:
Keybladewielder said:

Fantastic tracking by the sales team

Thank you! I feel like I am getting better at hardware tracking than when ioi passed the task onto the sales team. 

I would say you are much better at it than ioi "if Sony numbers can be trusted".



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Keiji said:
Nu-13 said:

And who said the ps4 is going to sell 10m this year? Ps5 is irrelevant to ps4 sales and a price cut will help very little this late. It's sales will simply keep declining every year until getting discontinued. And it wouldn't be worse than the psp, ps3 and psvita dying years.

Yeah I have read some similar statements about the fact PS4 will never pass the Wii some years ago.

You Nintendo fanboys aren't very good with prediction. 

Some years? By the middle of last year there were still some VGChartianz that believed PS4 wouldn't pass Wii in sales.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Conina said:
MasonADC said:

Nintendo is known to launch their biggest games in the second half of the year...

Microsoft is known to launch most of their biggest Xbox games in the second half of the year... but Nintendo?

I dont think that's a very good way to measure, to me it makes more sense to compare the titles in an individual year rather than just looking at the top 40 spanning 35 years. Also I think it makes more sense to look at recent trends because things can change from one generation to the next. So let's take a look at Switch.

Criteria

Small-under 1 million

Moderate-over 1 million

Big-over 5 million

Huge-over 10 million

2017

March-Zelda: Breath of the Wild/1-2 Switch

April-Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

May-nothing

June-ARMS

July-Splatoon 2

Aug-Mario+Rabbids

Sept-nothing

Oct-Fire Emblem Warriors/Mario Odyssey

Know-nothing

Dec-Xenoblade 2

2017 had 1 huge hit each quarter with 1 or 2 moderate hits to accompany them. About as well rounded as it gets.

2018

Jan-nothing

February-Bayonetta 2

March-Kirby: Star Allies

April-Labo Variety/Robot

May-DKC: Tropical Freeze/Hyrule Warriors

June-Mario Tennis: Aces

July-Octopath Traveler

Aug-nothing

Sept-Xenoblade: Torna/Labo Vehicle

Oct-Super Mario Party

Nov-Pokemon Let's Go

Dec-Smash Bros Ultimate

2018 had a handful of small-moderate sellers in the first 3 quarters followed by 3 huge hits in the final quarter.

2019

Jan-NSMBU Deluxe

Feb-nothing

March-Yoshi's Crafted World

April-Labo VR

May-nothing

June-Super Mario Maker

July-Marvel Alliance 3/Fire Emblem: 3 Houses

Aug-Astral Chain

Sept-Zelda: Link's Awakening

Oct-Ring Fit Adventure/Luigi's Mansion 3

Nov-Pokemon Sword/Shield

2019 had a few moderate-big hits in the first half followed by a few moderate-big hits and a couple huge hits in the 2nd half.

2017 had an even mix but that could be simply because they needed to make sure it got off to a great start while 2018 was the opposite where the biggest titles were all concentrated around the holidays and 2019 wasnt as extreme as 2018 but still was more concentrated around the 2nd half of the year, especially when you consider Mario Maker released in the last week of the 1st half.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Conina said:

Microsoft is known to launch most of their biggest Xbox games in the second half of the year... but Nintendo?

I dont think that's a very good way to measure, to me it makes more sense to compare the titles in an individual year rather than just looking at the top 40 spanning 35 years. Also I think it makes more sense to look at recent trends because things can change from one generation to the next. So let's take a look at Switch.

Criteria

Small-under 1 million

Moderate-over 1 million

Big-over 5 million

Huge-over 10 million

2017

March-Zelda: Breath of the Wild/1-2 Switch

April-Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

May-nothing

June-ARMS

July-Splatoon 2

Aug-Mario+Rabbids

Sept-nothing

Oct-Fire Emblem Warriors/Mario Odyssey

Know-nothing

Dec-Xenoblade 2

2017 had 1 huge hit each quarter with 1 or 2 moderate hits to accompany them. About as well rounded as it gets.

2018

Jan-nothing

February-Bayonetta 2

March-Kirby: Star Allies

April-Labo Variety/Robot

May-DKC: Tropical Freeze/Hyrule Warriors

June-Mario Tennis: Aces

July-Octopath Traveler

Aug-nothing

Sept-Xenoblade: Torna/Labo Vehicle

Oct-Super Mario Party

Nov-Pokemon Let's Go

Dec-Smash Bros Ultimate

2018 had a handful of small-moderate sellers in the first 3 quarters followed by 3 huge hits in the final quarter.

2019

Jan-NSMBU Deluxe

Feb-nothing

March-Yoshi's Crafted World

April-Labo VR

May-nothing

June-Super Mario Maker

July-Marvel Alliance 3/Fire Emblem: 3 Houses

Aug-Astral Chain

Sept-Zelda: Link's Awakening

Oct-Ring Fit Adventure/Luigi's Mansion 3

Nov-Pokemon Sword/Shield

2019 had a few moderate-big hits in the first half followed by a few moderate-big hits and a couple huge hits in the 2nd half.

2017 had an even mix but that could be simply because they needed to make sure it got off to a great start while 2018 was the opposite where the biggest titles were all concentrated around the holidays and 2019 wasnt as extreme as 2018 but still was more concentrated around the 2nd half of the year, especially when you consider Mario Maker released in the last week of the 1st half.

When we talk about the big games being release first half or second half showing the TOP 40 on the last decades that makes a lot more sense than listing all SW.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."