noshten said:
Ring Fit Adventure heading to 15M EOY World Wide, over 30M lifetime
Resell price has gone down a bit from ￥14,000 in mid August to ￥12,000 in September. Its still 50% profit compared to its retail price for resellers/scalpers.
Ring Fit Adventure sales in Japan by Quarter:
- 2020 Q3: 495.639(new)
- 2020 Q1: 249.488(-49.66%)
- 2020 Q2: 328.387(+31.62%)
- 2020 Q3: 346.423(+5.49%)
There are three weeks left for Ring Fit Adventure until the end of Q3, if Nintendo ships 50K on average the performance of the game prior to the holidays will actually be stronger than it's launch quarter. Still, we've seen supply fluctuate and the average so far this quarter has been 28K, I hope we actually see a big shipment to end the quarter strongly. So I'm theorizing that although they are possibly stockpiling for the holidays they might be able to ship 200K right before the end of their fiscal quarter. For me, I'm still not entirely sure Nintendo will be able to supply 10 million copies for the remainder of the year but I think based on what we are seeing is that the game will easily surpass 3M in Japan this year if there was sufficient supply.
- Wii Sports - 3.724.565
- Wii Fit - 3.561.787
- Wii Sports Resort - 3.165.464
- Ring Fit Adventure - 1.420.027
Ring Fit will end up selling above Wii Sports in Japan, by the simple virtue that the Wii only managed to sell 10M units in Japan, compare that to the Switch, the franchise is prime for growth. At the end of the day in Japan lifetime sales will probably end up beyond 5M because I don't think Nintendo will be in a hurry to release Ring Fit 2, I'd expect Wii Sports spiritual successor to not come until 2022 and it will probably utilize a different peripheral. Ring Fit is likely to be the only game that utilizes this specific peripheral this generation. So it would be a better idea of just updating this game from
Aug Amazon update: 7 Aug
- USA: #32 -> #18
- Canada: #4
- UK: #48 -> #54
- France: #13 -> #7
- Germany: #14 -> #7
Sep 6th Amazon:
- USA: #41
- Canada: #1
- UK: outside Top 100
- France: #16
- Germany: #23
Media Create South Korea, Taiwan(last 5 weeks:
- South Korea W31: #2; W32: #2; W33: #1; W34: #1
- Taiwan: W31: #3; W32: #2 W33: #2; W34: #1
In terms of Worldwide, we are seeing the game continue to perform very strongly in some of Nintendo's top markets. Based on these trends, I think we can expect Ring Fit Adventure to be around 7 million shipped by the end of the quarter. That's provided Nintendo is able to ship that many while stockpiling for the holidays. If there is sufficient stock built up for the holidays they could easily ship >15M Worldwide by the end of the year, with around 20% coming from Japan.
Also basing the popularity in Japan/South Korea/Taiwan - I'd expect the game to perform very strongly in China(it launched this week). Tencent is distributing the game and it doesn't contain the cartridge, and because it's being distributed and assembled to China, it's likely to be very profitable for both Nintendo and Tencent if ends up being the top-performing Switch game there. Tencent being the geniuses they are have been promoting it with unhealthy food. Overall China could end up being a major factor in the future growth of both the Switch and Ring Fit Sales worldwide if it ends up being the game that really becomes a mass fad there... I don't think supply problems for the rest of the World will ever be fully resolved. According to some users on Twitter the game sold-out online in China during it's launched(this has not been confirmed by a major news channel).
Like I said a while ago, the creators of Wii Fit and Wii Sports are likely to have another game that could enter the zeitgeist and sell above 30 million. I don't think Nintendo has really pushed Ring Fit Adventure marketing-wise and they could very easily with a major update. But because it took them so long to scale up production after realizing it was a hit, now that production is finally at the scale needed - well sky and a sequel are the only limits.
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15 million probably won't be reached this year but it will get close.
Nintendo continues to sideline Japan, demand for Ring Fit still not satisfied
So due to World Wide demand and a huge third market to service since September when Ring Fit officially launched in China, Nintendo has been unable to ship enough copies of Ring Fit this holiday to Japan, thus far. Stock issue has not been resolved and the game continues to require lotteries, while on Amazon it has maintained a 35% premium for resellers so demand despite selling 50K. The game is also selling via the official Nintendo store, where its like around 10-15% of copies and end-up which are uncounted by Famitsu but end up being released by Nintendo with their ship data. Also with 3rd Party alternatives available you could also buy the game digitally without the RingCon.
Next week will be the first time we see a major shipment for the game in Japan and even looking at Amazon right now during Week 51, it looks like demand isn't going to be satisfied by 300K more copies in the next three weeks. So overall the Quarter on Famitsu will end up around 550-650K a slight growth compared to Q3. In terms of it's total sales when Nintendo's official's figures come in it will be very close to Wii Fit's 2008 sales. While I expect 2021, demand to be maintained.
Ring Fit Adventure sales in Japan by Quarter:
- 2019 Q4: 495.639(new)
- 2020 Q1: 249.488(-49.66%)
- 2020 Q2: 328.387(+31.62%)
- 2020 Q3: 528.581(+60.49%)
- 2020 Q4: 367.605 (-47.80%)
Ring Fit Adventure Famitsu Sales:
- 2019: 495.639
- 2020: 1.474.151
Wii Fit Famitsu Sales:
- 2007: 818.166
- 2008: 2.149.131
- 2009: 588.258
- 2010: 6.232
Other Regions Driving huge franchise growth YOY,
Ring Fit Adventure Taiwan:
5th; 4th; 4th; 3rd; 3rd; n/a; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 3rd; 3rd; 3rd; 5th; 2nd; 1st; 1st; 4th; 2nd; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 1st; 5th; 3rd; 3rd; 3rd; 1st; 1st; 1st; 1st; 1st; 3rd; 1st; n/a; 2nd; 3st; 4th
Ring Fit Adventure South Korea:
4th; 4th; 2nd; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 4th; 2nd; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 4th; 2nd; 3rd; 2nd; 4th; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 1st; 1st; 2nd; 1st; 1st; 1st; 2nd; 1st; 1st; 1st; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 1st; 1st;
In the past 38 Weeks in Taiwan & South Korea this is what the Top 5 looks like, Ring Fit is not winning most weeks only due to the lack of supply.
The game only officially launched in China this September - so the Chinese sales will be much more evident this Quarter. In China Niko Partners estimates there is 4 million Switches in the market and this is before December. So overall I could see very strong growth for Ring Fit where Other region could easily make up over 50% of the sales. Ring Fit Adventure has sold 5.84 million units up until the previous quarter
Prediction for Shipped for Q4
- Japan - 1M
- NA - 2M
- Europe - 2M
- Other - 3M
TOTAL: 8M
TOTAL LIFETIME: 13.84M
Pretty much the only reason Nintendo isn't able to sell more is because they are still not supplying enough on a World Wide scale. It's crazy to think but I think next year will be the peak for Ring Fit Adventure, especially if Switch continues to accelerate in popularity in Japan, China and other Asian markets. The game will end up with over 4 million sales in Japan alone by the end of next year while the rest of Asia will accelerate it towards the 30 million. I think the Third Party peripherals will actually resolve a large part of the problem because people will finally have a cheaper alternative if Nintendo isn't producing enough.
Last edited by noshten - on 17 December 2020
