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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales : Wii Fit versus Ring Fit (launch aligned)

Amnesia said:
First post updated, Ring Fit is quickly catching up but still too far I believe to win at the end.

In the end they might end up being close to the same total.



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I think you are both underestimating Ring Fit, it would have already outsold Wii Fit in Japan if there was sufficient stock. The game is currently selling >50K per week and the situation at Amazon and other retailers haven't changed. You need to pay 50% more than the retail price to buy it on Amazon. Japanese Retailers continue to have lotteries to purchase a copy of the game.
Wii Fit & Wii Sports were never going to be one of the biggest sellers in Japan considering the limited user base on the Wii. 

  1. Wii Sports - 3.724.565
  2. Wii Fit - 3.717.665
  3. Wii Sports Resort - 3.165.464
  4. Wii Fit Plus - 2.417.762 
  • Wii Sports - 29% Attach Rate
  • Wii Fit - 29% Attach Rate
  • Wii Sports Resort - 25% Attach Rate
  • Wii Fit Plus -  19% Attach Rate

Wii Lifetime Sales: 12.739.119 

Switch Lifetime Sales: 15.073.025

  • Ring Fit Adventure 1.483.985
  • Ring Fit Adventure - 15% Attach Rate

Let's say worst-case scenario Ring Fit maintains 15% Attach Rate at the end of the Switch's life, in a case where Switch sales 25M that's 3.75M, if it's 30M its 4.5M. A more likely scenario I see is a 30% Attach Rate. Mainly because I view it as being a better game than either Wii Fit or Wii Sports, there is still potential for future DLC updates(both free and paid) and finally, as the product scales up in production it will make the peripheral less and less expensive to make overtime - thus making the game more and more profitable for Nintendo or they can reduce the price to drive even more sales. At 30% Attach Rate we are now talking about Ring Fit having the potential to sell 7.5M on a 25M or 9M on a 30M userbase in Japan, which automatically makes it a candidate for the Top 5 of all time in Japan. 

The game is extremely popular all across Asia at the moment, and China finally has the game officially(it launched there this month, just in time for Nintendo's Quarterly results). I don't understand why people expect it to slow down when Nintendo hasn't even been able to produce enough to meet demand anywhere... This will be one of the best selling games in the final quarter of this year, and it will move a great amount of hardware as well. 

Nintendo has started to market it again now that they have the stock under control, for example, a new trailer was released across Nintendo's western channels - one such example, Nintendo Spain

  • Ring Fit Launch Q: 1.7M
  • Q2: 1M 
  • Q3: 1M
  • Q4: ?

Q4 in Japan >410K thus far, shipment likely to be over 750K by the end of the Quarter; China is getting the game officially and it has been reselling for very high price and Chinese people will finally be able to purchase it for about $70. Based on the sales in Japan and the official China launch I'm thinking this quarter the result would be over 2M World Wide, probably closer to 3M

Now in terms of the holiday quarter, I honestly expect this to be one of the big hits this holiday as Nintendo if finally able to produce enough copies to justify a larger marketing campaign. Wii Fit for example launched in December 2007 in Japan but only after mid-2008 for other countries. By the end of March 2009 it sold 18.22M World Wide - by March 2021 I think Ring Fit will surpass this figure without being a pack-in. I can totally see the game being able to sell over 7M this holiday quarter if Nintendo is able to produce that many. 

Last edited by noshten - on 13 September 2020

***FIRST POST UPDATED***

Fight is getting more and more brutal and out of control, Wii Fit stops the counter offensive of Ring Fit.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

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Ring Fit will probably strike back hard this Holiday thanks to the bundle.There's still a long way to go, but I think I think Ring Fit can outleg it.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

Amnesia said:

***FIRST POST UPDATED***

Fight is getting more and more brutal and out of control, Wii Fit stops the counter offensive of Ring Fit.

Wii Fit is having its holiday sales, so it's no surprise that Ring Fit Adventure is falling a bit behind again. RFA will easily make up for that if its own upcoming holiday sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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noshten said:

Ring Fit Adventure heading to 15M EOY World Wide, over 30M lifetime

Resell price has gone down a bit from ¥14,000 in mid August to ¥12,000 in September. Its still 50% profit compared to its retail price for resellers/scalpers. 

Ring Fit Adventure sales in Japan by Quarter:

  • 2020 Q3: 495.639(new)
  • 2020 Q1: 249.488(-49.66%)
  • 2020 Q2: 328.387(+31.62%)
  • 2020 Q3: 346.423(+5.49%)

There are three weeks left for Ring Fit Adventure until the end of Q3, if Nintendo ships 50K on average the performance of the game prior to the holidays will actually be stronger than it's launch quarter. Still, we've seen supply fluctuate and the average so far this quarter has been 28K, I hope we actually see a big shipment to end the quarter strongly. So I'm theorizing that although they are possibly stockpiling for the holidays they might be able to ship 200K right before the end of their fiscal quarter. For me, I'm still not entirely sure Nintendo will be able to supply 10 million copies for the remainder of the year but I think based on what we are seeing is that the game will easily surpass 3M in Japan this year if there was sufficient supply. 

  1. Wii Sports - 3.724.565
  2. Wii Fit - 3.561.787
  3. Wii Sports Resort - 3.165.464
  4. Ring Fit Adventure - 1.420.027

Ring Fit will end up selling above Wii Sports in Japan, by the simple virtue that the Wii only managed to sell 10M units in Japan, compare that to the Switch, the franchise is prime for growth. At the end of the day in Japan lifetime sales will probably end up beyond 5M because I don't think Nintendo will be in a hurry to release Ring Fit 2, I'd expect Wii Sports spiritual successor to not come until 2022 and it will probably utilize a different peripheral. Ring Fit is likely to be the only game that utilizes this specific peripheral this generation. So it would be a better idea of just updating this game from  

Aug Amazon update: 7 Aug

  • USA: #32 -> #18
  • Canada: #4
  • UK: #48 -> #54
  • France: #13 -> #7
  • Germany: #14 -> #7

Sep 6th Amazon:

  • USA: #41
  • Canada: #1
  • UK: outside Top 100
  • France: #16
  • Germany: #23

Media Create South Korea, Taiwan(last 5 weeks:

  • South Korea W31: #2; W32: #2; W33: #1;  W34: #1
  • Taiwan: W31: #3; W32: #2 W33: #2; W34: #1

In terms of Worldwide, we are seeing the game continue to perform very strongly in some of Nintendo's top markets. Based on these trends, I think we can expect Ring Fit Adventure to be around 7 million shipped by the end of the quarter. That's provided Nintendo is able to ship that many while stockpiling for the holidays. If there is sufficient stock built up for the holidays they could easily ship >15M Worldwide by the end of the year, with around 20% coming from Japan.

Also basing the popularity in Japan/South Korea/Taiwan - I'd expect the game to perform very strongly in China(it launched this week). Tencent is distributing the game and it doesn't contain the cartridge, and because it's being distributed and assembled to China, it's likely to be very profitable for both Nintendo and Tencent if ends up being the top-performing Switch game there. Tencent being the geniuses they are have been promoting it with unhealthy food. Overall China could end up being a major factor in the future growth of both the Switch and Ring Fit Sales worldwide if it ends up being the game that really becomes a mass fad there... I don't think supply problems for the rest of the World will ever be fully resolved. According to some users on Twitter the game sold-out online in China during it's launched(this has not been confirmed by a major news channel). 

Like I said a while ago, the creators of Wii Fit and Wii Sports are likely to have another game that could enter the zeitgeist and sell above 30 million. I don't think Nintendo has really pushed Ring Fit Adventure marketing-wise and they could very easily with a major update. But because it took them so long to scale up production after realizing it was a hit, now that production is finally at the scale needed - well sky and a sequel are the only limits. 

15 million probably won't be reached this year but it will get close. 

Nintendo continues to sideline Japan, demand for Ring Fit still not satisfied

So due to World Wide demand and a huge third market to service since September when Ring Fit officially launched in China, Nintendo has been unable to ship enough copies of Ring Fit this holiday to Japan, thus far. Stock issue has not been resolved and the game continues to require lotteries, while on Amazon it has maintained a 35% premium for resellers so demand despite selling 50K. The game is also selling via the official Nintendo store, where its like around 10-15% of copies and end-up which are uncounted by Famitsu but end up being released by Nintendo with their ship data. Also with 3rd Party alternatives available you could also buy the game digitally without the RingCon.  

Next week will be the first time we see a major shipment for the game in Japan and even looking at Amazon right now during Week 51, it looks like demand isn't going to be satisfied by 300K more copies in the next three weeks. So overall the Quarter on Famitsu will end up around 550-650K a slight growth compared to Q3. In terms of it's total sales when Nintendo's official's figures come in it will be very close to Wii Fit's 2008 sales. While I expect 2021, demand to be maintained. 

Ring Fit Adventure sales in Japan by Quarter:

  • 2019 Q4: 495.639(new)
  • 2020 Q1: 249.488(-49.66%)
  • 2020 Q2: 328.387(+31.62%)
  • 2020 Q3: 528.581(+60.49%)
  • 2020 Q4: 367.605 (-47.80%)

Ring Fit Adventure Famitsu Sales:

  • 2019: 495.639
  • 2020: 1.474.151

Wii Fit Famitsu Sales:

  • 2007: 818.166
  • 2008: 2.149.131
  • 2009: 588.258
  • 2010: 6.232

Other Regions Driving huge franchise growth YOY, 

Ring Fit Adventure Taiwan:
5th; 4th; 4th; 3rd; 3rd; n/a; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 3rd; 3rd; 3rd; 5th; 2nd; 1st; 1st; 4th; 2nd; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 1st; 5th; 3rd; 3rd; 3rd; 1st; 1st; 1st; 1st; 1st; 3rd; 1st; n/a; 2nd; 3st; 4th

Ring Fit Adventure South Korea:
4th; 4th; 2nd; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 4th; 2nd; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 4th; 2nd; 3rd; 2nd; 4th; 3rd; 2nd; 2nd; 1st; 1st; 2nd; 1st; 1st; 1st; 2nd; 1st; 1st; 1st; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 1st; 1st; 

In the past 38 Weeks in Taiwan & South Korea this is what the Top 5 looks like, Ring Fit is not winning most weeks only due to the lack of supply.

The game only officially launched in China this September - so the Chinese sales will be much more evident this Quarter. In China Niko Partners estimates there is 4 million Switches in the market and this is before December. So overall I could see very strong growth for Ring Fit where Other region could easily make up over 50% of the sales. Ring Fit Adventure has sold 5.84 million units up until the previous quarter

Prediction for Shipped for Q4

  • Japan - 1M
  • NA - 2M
  • Europe - 2M
  • Other - 3M

TOTAL: 8M

TOTAL LIFETIME: 13.84M

Pretty much the only reason Nintendo isn't able to sell more is because they are still not supplying enough on a World Wide scale. It's crazy to think but I think next year will be the peak for Ring Fit Adventure, especially if Switch continues to accelerate in popularity in Japan, China and other Asian markets. The game will end up with over 4 million sales in Japan alone by the end of next year while the rest of Asia will accelerate it towards the 30 million. I think the Third Party peripherals will actually resolve a large part of the problem because people will finally have a cheaper alternative if Nintendo isn't producing enough. 

Last edited by noshten - on 17 December 2020

Just didn't connect the dots with Wii Fit vs Ring Fit Adventure. It'll be interesting for sure which Exergame comes out ontop.



VideoGameAccountant said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
The big question is: Will the sales stay as high after Covid-19 or will they go down again when everything goes normal again?

Also, when will VGC have Ryng's Fit Adventure?

Probably not. I expect its already fallen as a lot of states ended the lockdowns. Cost will likely be an issue down the road as well. 

Considering how the sales are still dictated by stock, I'd say it will stay pretty high for a while at the very least.



***FIRST POST UPDATED***



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

It's funny to see how in first post nobody had hope for Ring Fit. Now, surpassing Wii Fit seems like very doable