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noshten on 13 September 2020
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I think you are both underestimating Ring Fit, it would have already outsold Wii Fit in Japan if there was sufficient stock. The game is currently selling >50K per week and the situation at Amazon and other retailers haven't changed. You need to pay 50% more than the retail price to buy it on Amazon. Japanese Retailers continue to have lotteries to purchase a copy of the game.
Wii Fit & Wii Sports were never going to be one of the biggest sellers in Japan considering the limited user base on the Wii. 

  1. Wii Sports - 3.724.565
  2. Wii Fit - 3.717.665
  3. Wii Sports Resort - 3.165.464
  4. Wii Fit Plus - 2.417.762 
  • Wii Sports - 29% Attach Rate
  • Wii Fit - 29% Attach Rate
  • Wii Sports Resort - 25% Attach Rate
  • Wii Fit Plus -  19% Attach Rate

Wii Lifetime Sales: 12.739.119 

Switch Lifetime Sales: 15.073.025

  • Ring Fit Adventure 1.483.985
  • Ring Fit Adventure - 15% Attach Rate

Let's say worst-case scenario Ring Fit maintains 15% Attach Rate at the end of the Switch's life, in a case where Switch sales 25M that's 3.75M, if it's 30M its 4.5M. A more likely scenario I see is a 30% Attach Rate. Mainly because I view it as being a better game than either Wii Fit or Wii Sports, there is still potential for future DLC updates(both free and paid) and finally, as the product scales up in production it will make the peripheral less and less expensive to make overtime - thus making the game more and more profitable for Nintendo or they can reduce the price to drive even more sales. At 30% Attach Rate we are now talking about Ring Fit having the potential to sell 7.5M on a 25M or 9M on a 30M userbase in Japan, which automatically makes it a candidate for the Top 5 of all time in Japan. 

The game is extremely popular all across Asia at the moment, and China finally has the game officially(it launched there this month, just in time for Nintendo's Quarterly results). I don't understand why people expect it to slow down when Nintendo hasn't even been able to produce enough to meet demand anywhere... This will be one of the best selling games in the final quarter of this year, and it will move a great amount of hardware as well. 

Nintendo has started to market it again now that they have the stock under control, for example, a new trailer was released across Nintendo's western channels - one such example, Nintendo Spain. 

  • Ring Fit Launch Q: 1.7M
  • Q2: 1M 
  • Q3: 1M
  • Q4: ?

Q4 in Japan >410K thus far, shipment likely to be over 750K by the end of the Quarter; China is getting the game officially and it has been reselling for very high price and Chinese people will finally be able to purchase it for about $70. Based on the sales in Japan and the official China launch I'm thinking this quarter the result would be over 2M World Wide, probably closer to 3M. 

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1230637046915641344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1230637046915641344%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_1&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nintendolife.com%2Fnews%2F2020%2F02%2Fring_fit_adventure_sales_rapidly_increase_in_china_due_to_the_coronavirus_outbreak
Now in terms of the holiday quarter, I honestly expect this to be one of the big hits this holiday as Nintendo if finally able to produce enough copies to justify a larger marketing campaign. Wii Fit for example launched in December 2007 in Japan but only after mid-2008 for other countries. By the end of March 2009 it sold 18.22M World Wide - by March 2021 I think Ring Fit will surpass this figure without being a pack-in. I can totally see the game being able to sell over 7M this holiday quarter if Nintendo is able to produce that many. 

Last edited by noshten - on 13 September 2020