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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Can Nintendo clear its FY2019 forecast in only 3 quarters ?

 

Can Nintendo beats its forecast in only 3 quarters ?

Impossible 8 26.67%
 
They will be close 14 46.67%
 
Strong probability for it 6 20.00%
 
Easily 2 6.67%
 
Total:30

What makes me think of a failed Lite launch, is if they replaced urgently the sticks with upgraded model. So maybe the plan was to have 1 million ready at launch and they will maybe have less than half of it, but at least with strong sticks. They both fix the drift problem on the Lite and generate a buzz thanks to the shortage.



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Very unlikely. Investors and regulators would certainly be interested if Nintendo dramatically underestimated its forecasts, and not in a good way.

I suspect that the Lite is going to shift the dynamics rather than shift more units. I'm betting we'll see a couple million more shipments for Q2 because of the Lite launch, but it's also going to eat into regular Switch sales. That means fewer of those moving and fewer orders from retailers. So we'll likely see a couple million fewer shipments than some expect in Q3 because that stock will already be there.



Switch had shipped 2.79m more than it had sold to consumers by the end of Q3 last fiscal year.

Switch needs to have shipped 52.74m by the end of December to clear it's FY forecast in just the first 3 quarters. So if you assume a similar amount of surplus shipped then Switch will need to sell to consumers 20.47m this calendar year.

I'm going to predict 17m shipped in the first 3 quarters.

FY2019 Q1 : 2.13 M

FY2019 Q2 : 3.9 M

FY2019 Q3 : 11 M

Another 3m+ in FY2019 Q4 bringing the total for the FY above 20m.



Barkley said:

Switch had shipped 2.79m more than it had sold to consumers by the end of Q3 last fiscal year.

Switch needs to have shipped 52.74m by the end of December to clear it's FY forecast in just the first 3 quarters. So if you assume a similar amount of surplus shipped then Switch will need to sell to consumers 20.47m this calendar year.

I'm going to predict 17m shipped in the first 3 quarters.

FY2019 Q1 : 2.13 M

FY2019 Q2 : 3.9 M

FY2019 Q3 : 11 M

Another 3m+ in FY2019 Q4 bringing the total for the FY above 20m.

Not impossible, but it all depends on how well the Lite will do... and how well Pokemon SwoSh will do.

We will get some indication during the next quarterly results. If preorders and initial sales and demand of the Lite is very high, I'm sure there's a possibility that Nintendo ups the forecast then already by a million or two.



Nope, that won't happen. There are still close to 16m units left to go and the standard Switch is in its third year without a price cut. 17m through three quarters is feasible which would allow for 20m through the whole fiscal year.



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Haha, on the topic, I literally don't know.

I want to see how the new models impact sales before I think I can even begin to guess.

A couple of potential scenarios:

* The handheld + Pokemon is a smash hit, 10M extras this holiday season wouldn't be a crazy thought.
* The handheld acts as a price anchor for the main model, "Oh! Switch is now just 199 USD (now in my subconscious that 299 USD now looks like a much better deal!) but then there's the other one I might get!" which could result in a much larger sales of classic units.

I am guesing Nintendo's internal analysts are unsure as well, they know sales are a bit above status quo and the worst case scenario is the new model + Pokemon will at least boost it a little more above status quo. So that is why I think they have that estimate, it's basically a target they know they'll hit. But there's the wildcard potential that the handheld mode might be a hit, some people believe they know it will be a hit, but the data doesn't support it, this is a brand new scenario.

I'll also note that Q1 sales are not necessarily an indication of Q3, there are wildly different ratios because of the Christmas gift factor. Switch handheld + Pokemon for the kids this year, open it up for Animal Crossing and other games as birthday gifts and such in the next few years.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 07 August 2019

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
They should be able to, 3 trimesters = 1 year :)

I think the term you mean is 3 quarters.

Well, a trimester = 3 months.

1 year = 12 months.

A quarter= 1 year/4= 12 months/4 = 3 months.

Therefore, 1 trimester= 1 quarter.



jonathanalis said:
Jumpin said:
They should be able to, 3 trimesters = 1 year :)

I think the term you mean is 3 quarters.

Well, a trimester = 3 months.

1 year = 12 months.

A quarter= 1 year/4= 12 months/4 = 3 months.

Therefore, 1 trimester= 1 quarter.

He made me bugging so much with that..."trimestre" is 3 months in french. Anyway it was better to change and use "quarter" in this context.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

It somewhat depends on how many Switches they are able to supply. I do think Nintendo will not supply enough Switches these holidays. Most likely, yes, Switch sales will pass last fiscal year's total by the end of 12/31/2019. If they don't then it will be because Nintendo severely underestimated demand for the Switch.



I mean anything is possible, but I'd say probably no.

First of all, people don't realize 18 million is actually not that easy to hit, Nintendo hasn't had 18 million in hardware sales for damn near a decade because it isn't easy.

I also don't know how much of an actual huge boost Pokemon is going to provide. Modern Pokemon games average in the range of 15-16 million in sales, but Pokemon Lets Go already has cleared 11 million on the Switch and will possibly be around 12+ million by the time Sword/Shield launches.

That means that majority of the Pokemon fanbase likely already is on the Switch. Also considering Pokemon fans are not some distinct audience either, they are likely fans of other Nintendo IP since Pokemon has always been on Nintendo platforms to boot.

I think the Lite will give a boost initially but I'm not sure if we're talking a boost here that overperforms sales targets by 2+ million in a fiscal year.

The Lite is still quite bulky and the value proposition isn't really that great, you get full Joycons, a larger screen, the ability to dock to a TV, and better battery life with the new regular Switch model.