Haha, on the topic, I literally don't know.
I want to see how the new models impact sales before I think I can even begin to guess.
A couple of potential scenarios:
* The handheld + Pokemon is a smash hit, 10M extras this holiday season wouldn't be a crazy thought.
* The handheld acts as a price anchor for the main model, "Oh! Switch is now just 199 USD (now in my subconscious that 299 USD now looks like a much better deal!) but then there's the other one I might get!" which could result in a much larger sales of classic units.
I am guesing Nintendo's internal analysts are unsure as well, they know sales are a bit above status quo and the worst case scenario is the new model + Pokemon will at least boost it a little more above status quo. So that is why I think they have that estimate, it's basically a target they know they'll hit. But there's the wildcard potential that the handheld mode might be a hit, some people believe they know it will be a hit, but the data doesn't support it, this is a brand new scenario.
I'll also note that Q1 sales are not necessarily an indication of Q3, there are wildly different ratios because of the Christmas gift factor. Switch handheld + Pokemon for the kids this year, open it up for Animal Crossing and other games as birthday gifts and such in the next few years.
Last edited by Jumpin - on 07 August 2019