Can Nintendo clear its FY2019 forecast in only 3 quarters ?

[Soundwave]

I mean anything is possible, but I'd say probably no.

First of all, people don't realize 18 million is actually not that easy to hit, Nintendo hasn't had 18 million in hardware sales for damn near a decade because it isn't easy.

I also don't know how much of an actual huge boost Pokemon is going to provide. Modern Pokemon games average in the range of 15-16 million in sales, but Pokemon Lets Go already has cleared 11 million on the Switch and will possibly be around 12+ million by the time Sword/Shield launches.

That means that majority of the Pokemon fanbase likely already is on the Switch. Also considering Pokemon fans are not some distinct audience either, they are likely fans of other Nintendo IP since Pokemon has always been on Nintendo platforms to boot.

I think the Lite will give a boost initially but I'm not sure if we're talking a boost here that overperforms sales targets by 2+ million in a fiscal year.

The Lite is still quite bulky and the value proposition isn't really that great, you get full Joycons, a larger screen, the ability to dock to a TV, and better battery life with the new regular Switch model.