It is a possibility, it might be the reason why they stick to a modest 18M, but this scenario doesn't look impossible at all, if the launch of the Lite is strong, if the combinaison of Shield/Sword/Lite + the whole line up of Q2-Q3 works more than expected, we could have this :

FY2019 Q1 : 2,13 M

FY2019 Q2 : 4,5 M

FY2019 Q3 : 11,5 M

Total at this point would be 18,13 M

Unlikely, I think they will do over 20m for the full year, but I don't think they'll do 18m in the first 3 quarters. Maybe 17.5m

They should be able to, 3 trimesters = 1 year :)

I think the term you mean is 3 quarters.

oh

Maybe, but it depends on how much Switch Lite stock they'll have on hand because I have a feeling Nintendo is going to underestimate demand which will move a lot of those 3rd quarter sales into the 4th quarter.

Oh you think they will "really" underestimate it ?....

Apologize, I am one of those who believe that they can accurately estimate and plan an artificial shortage...Just a little bit, enough to make a strong marketing punch.

What about Q4? Jan - Mar 2020 also belongs to FY2019... ^^

That's the point. He's saying can Nintendo pass their own fiscal year prediction in just 3 quarters of the fiscal year. 

I think Nintendo can accurately gauge demand in Japan but I also feel like they misjudge the west from time to time and this feels like one of those times.

What makes me think of a failed Lite launch, is if they replaced urgently the sticks with upgraded model. So maybe the plan was to have 1 million ready at launch and they will maybe have less than half of it, but at least with strong sticks. They both fix the drift problem on the Lite and generate a buzz thanks to the shortage.