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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

So next contest is on Tuesday. Sanders won Michigan in 2016 and last poll has Biden and Sanders pretty close in Washington. If Sanders can pull a win in these two, the gap might be closign, especially since California and Colorado are still counting and still delegates left to pledge.



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NightlyPoe said:
jason1637 said:

I figured that Warren wasn't pulling as many votes away from Sanders as his supporters claimed.

My guess is, that Sanders surge at the beginning of the year must've come somewhere. Probably voters leaving Warren to Sanders was the reason. That includes, that her remaining voters in bigger part backed other choices.



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Kamala now also endorses Biden: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/kamala-harris-endorses-joe-biden-n1152486



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NightlyPoe said:
Mnementh said:

My guess is, that Sanders surge at the beginning of the year must've come somewhere. Probably voters leaving Warren to Sanders was the reason. That includes, that her remaining voters in bigger part backed other choices.

Honestly, the Sanders surge wasn't particularly large.  It only felt that was because he was winning races, even if it was by only a point or so.  Here's the RCP average for the race.

January 1:  19.1%
February 3 (Iowa Caucus):  23.1%
February 29 (S. Carolina and peak of surge):  29.6%

So we're only talking about 10 points or so and never above 30%.  That much could be attributed to a bandwagon effect after Biden collapsed and suddenly Sanders was leading and then the subsequent bounces from his wins.

Still, it had to come somewhere and arren was going down from her high in the fall. So my theory is, that in that time the Warren supporters that had Sanders as their second choice switched boats, which is why now Warren-supporters have different second choices.



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NightlyPoe said:
Mnementh said:

Still, it had to come somewhere and arren was going down from her high in the fall. So my theory is, that in that time the Warren supporters that had Sanders as their second choice switched boats, which is why now Warren-supporters have different second choices.

If you look, Warren stayed pretty steady during the early part of the Sanders surge.  She was at 15% on January 1 and stayed right there until around New Hampshire (and still only leaked a couple of points).  He might have lost a few voters to her at her peak, but it looks like they'd come back to the fold by the end of October.

Warren might have nabbed a few Sanders voters at her peak, but looking at the chart, it seams that they'd gone home by the end of October.

There is always the way from one candidate to another over the 'undecided'-field.



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Mnementh said:

Soo, a bit surprisingly for me, the whole Coronavirus crisis plays into the debate about health care. How so?

Well, many people still working with small symptoms, because they don't get paid sick leave. If they work in a job, where they are in contact with other people, this helps to potentially spread the virus (or basically any infection).

Also people without health care may avoid going to the doctor, in which case they aren't identified as infected with Covid in time.

All this is not helping to contain the epidemic.

So, someone backs this up with experiences from the food service industry (read the whole thread):



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Bernie got Endorsed by Jesse Jackson as well today, but again, if you support Joe, please watch this and tell me if you honestly think this can beat Trump.



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NightlyPoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

It is one theme where Bernie could make a point about M4A - and guaranteed paid sickness leave while we're at it. He should point at Germany, showing that people get registered and thus treated early in the disease cycle. The result: Many cases that got discovered (twice as much as in the US at the time of writing), but also still a death tally of Zero (against 15 in the US).

That's less policy than bad luck.  Most of the deaths (and a good chunk of the total known cases) in the United States so far have come from an outbreak in a single nursing home.  The United States was unfortunate in that one of the first detectable outbreaks happened in pretty much the most vulnerable place imaginable.

So? Europe has the bad luck of getting the much more deadly Italian strain and yet the first German patient died only yesterday - in Egypt.

Also, policy does play a big part going forward. Not having paid sick leave means many will go to work because they can't afford to stay at home. And the lack of or insufficient healthcare coverage means many will not go to the doctor and get diagnosed simply because they can't afford it. These are things that simply won't happen in most countries in the world, and in none out of Europe, due to healthcare policy.





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