Mnementh on 08 March 2020
NightlyPoe said:
Mnementh said:
My guess is, that Sanders surge at the beginning of the year must've come somewhere. Probably voters leaving Warren to Sanders was the reason. That includes, that her remaining voters in bigger part backed other choices.
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Honestly, the Sanders surge wasn't particularly large. It only felt that was because he was winning races, even if it was by only a point or so. Here's the RCP average for the race.
January 1: 19.1% February 3 (Iowa Caucus): 23.1% February 29 (S. Carolina and peak of surge): 29.6%
So we're only talking about 10 points or so and never above 30%. That much could be attributed to a bandwagon effect after Biden collapsed and suddenly Sanders was leading and then the subsequent bounces from his wins.
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Still, it had to come somewhere and arren was going down from her high in the fall. So my theory is, that in that time the Warren supporters that had Sanders as their second choice switched boats, which is why now Warren-supporters have different second choices.
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