This is their Nightmare on Elm Street!

Just love that closing remark!

Do millenials get that joke? I know the movies, but I'm old.

In any case, the video is great. The music is great, the basic premise is great: the established is in fear, so it must be going well. And this cut together bites, that show Trump scared of Bernie.

Well, I'm millenial (barely - 1 year older and I'd be an X-er) and the movies had a different title here, but I got that immediately. Being a movie and history buff who loves trivia (nobody dares anymore to play trivial pursuit against me) certainly helps, though.

Some more last-minute Iowa articles:

Fivethirtyeight breaks down their delegate forecast by districts: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/breaking-down-our-iowa-forecast-district-by-district/

New York Times sees a differences in preference between Biden/Sanders among likely caucusgoers and likely primary voters, which would give Sanders an advantage in Iowa: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/upshot/poll-iowa-caucus-biden.html

And an interesting analysis about the rise of Trump, released just in time before the Iowa-caucus:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/01/donald-trump-impeachment-trial-state-of-the-union

Can somebody explain to a non-american what's the difference between a primary and a caucus?

I saw a poll stealing my thunder about what I was gonna predict so I decided now was the time to do so before the necessary threshold is met. That is, if Bernie wins Iowa and NH he will also win SC. Anyway, with that out of the way let me explain the best case scenario for Iowa for Bernie.

1) Bernie Wins in an overwhelming fashion.

2) Pete Gets second place

3) Warren gets 3rd

4) Biden gets 4th or Below.

Bernie winning in a big way speaks for itself, he gets a lead and he also gives americans a reason to believe he is the most electable because he is.

Pete 2nd over Warren is important as well, Pete has no minority support, regardless of how well he does in NH and Iowa he's not going much further than that. Him beating Warren will lower the amount of people that believe Warren can win and possibly lower their enthusiasm for her causing them to move on. Warren supporters 2nd choice is Bernie Sanders, this is a win. Warren and Biden together is the only thing stopping Bernie, if either 1 drops out Bernie wins the nomination with ease because he is their 2nd choice.

This leads into Biden. His entire argument is that he's the most electable. If he comes 2nd or 3rd, he might be able to keep people thinking he still is, but if he gets 4th or below? He's done. His support will crumble, his "firewall" will break and his campaign will collapse by super tuesday. with Biden out of the way, his supporters 2nd choice will move to first and that is Bernie Sanders. With that done Bernie would have successfully set himself up to sweep the primary and win on the first vote without super delegates getting a chance to steal it from him.

In other words, if we win tonight, and we win NH and we win Nevada, we will win SC and with an early states sweep we'll have our path cleared into super tuesday. The real final boss that will try to prevent us from getting the nomination on the first ballot is Bloomberg. He's only running because the establishment figured Biden would collapse. If He ends Iowa in fourth, that's it. We've possibly won the nomination at that very moment.

Thanks for the explanation!

Aboutt he bolded part: If he also wins Nevada, then I think he has a good chance at winning SC. And if he were to win those 4 in a row, then he'll win the primary, as Biden's "electability" myth would have been shattered by reality. And I don't think Bloomberg can rise fast enough, rather he and Biden will steal each other's votes until one of both drops out - which I believe they won't do (too thick-headed and certain of their own superiority for that) and thus fail in their bid.

Finished my caucus an hour ago. Biden wasn't viable. Pete Buttigeig got 1 delegate with around 50 people. Sanders and Warren each got 3 delegates with around 115 people. Biden doesn't seem to be doing too well. Lots of places where Pete and Amy are soaking up non-viable Biden votes. It seems that Biden is a lot of people's 2nd or 3rd choice so he's losing a lot of ground. Warren seems to be doing really well. I think at this point it's a three way race between Biden, Warren, and Bernie, in the Iowa Caucuses. Pete and Amy both seem to be getting one or two delegates here and there. Everyone else is toast.

It kinda baffles me that a party that has a majority support for getting rid of the electoral college still uses delegates and caucuses to decide a nominee.