It seems like Biden is losing it in regards to his contact with voters. Of particular note in this video, someone compared him to Hillary when she kinda lost it at the final stages of her 2008 campaign by saying stuff like "we need white voters". 

It also reminded me of a documentary I saw of the Bush vs Dukakis race where Dukakis kept making awful mistake after awful mistake when the campaign was about to end. The pressure of running a campaign for the highest office in this planet must be tremendous enough to crush people.

With just days to go before the Iowa Caucus, here's where we stand.

National RCP Polling Average

Biden: 28.1%
Sanders: 23.8%
Warren: 14.8%
Bloomberg: 7.8%
Buttigieg: 6.8%
Yang: 4.8%
Klobuchar: 4.3%
Steyer: 1.8%
Gabbard: 0.9%

Iowa RCP Polling Average

Sanders: 24.2%
Biden: 21%
Buttigieg: 16.8%
Warren: 14.7%
Klobuchar: 9.2%
Yang: 3.3%
Steyer: 3.2%
Gabbard: 1.2%
Bloomberg: 1%

New Hampshire RCP Polling Average

Sanders: 24%
Biden: 16%
Buttigieg: 14.8%
Warren: 13%
Klobuchar: 7%
Gabbard: 4.8%
Yang: 4.7%
Steyer: 2.3%

While these figures suggest Biden to still be the most likely nominee, I'm starting to feel more optimistic about the direction of things in this race for the first time since early October! After the Warren surge abated, I felt pessimistic about the chances of a progressive candidate winning the nomination for a change. But polling data a week out from voting day is usually the most accurate, I find, and you can see what it suggests might just happen! Let me add this headline that's pretty self-explanatory to the indications: Everyone's Drawing Huge Crowds in Iowa Except Biden.

Crowd size indicates activist support, and that matters a lot in a caucus state like Iowa, as caucuses are basically votes of activists! I've also been seeing reports that Joe Biden's campaign is less organized on the ground than Hillary Clinton's was and that could translate into lower mobilization on voting day.

There are a lot of indications, in other words, that a Bernie Sanders upset is possible! I mean if he can win in both Iowa AND New Hampshire, I think the perception of Biden as the "most electable candidate" will start to erode, and that argument has been his only real strength in this campaign. (Seriously, the guy can barely form a sentence.) Although Sanders doesn't poll as well among black voters, who are crucial, you could see that start to change as a result of back-to-back early victories like this. Hopefully I'm not being premature again in my optimism this time, but I think an upset is possible! I mean Clinton won Iowa narrowly in 2016. If Biden loses to her main opponent, Sanders, I think that tells you that he is, in fact, a weaker candidate than Clinton, not the stronger one that his supporters insist him to be. Iowa's a Midwestern state. Democrats really want to win in the Midwest this time around. "

Also, something else to look for in this race: turnout levels. Will the turnout levels for the Democratic nominating contest be unusually high, as in higher than they were in 2016? That's an early indication of which way the general election might go. High interest is a good sign. Low interest is a bad sign. Let's pay attention to what those numbers tell us too, not just to who wins.

I'm starting to have second thoughts about Bernie. I love the guy, but damn if some of his policies aren't popular. Medicare for all isn't popular, even though I agree with it. Decriminalizing border crossings isn't popular (because it sounds like open borders). I really feel like Bernie will fail to carry down ballot Senators in areas that voted Trump in 2016. We absolutely need to flip the Senate, and that's already a nearly impossible task!

On the flip side, we have Biden (who voted for the Iraq War, and still believes we can compromise with the GOP), and Buttigeig (who probably isn't electable due to his sexual orientation and stands no chance of getting the nomination at this point anyway.)

100% agree

And with the last polls in Nevada showing Biden and Sanders head-to-head, Biden might even loose the 3 first states.

Worse, he's at risk dropping below 15% and behind both Buttigieg and to a lesser degree Warren in NH. If Biden would get beaten not just by Sanders, but also other candidates, his electability myth is most likely shattered that moment and his election bid lost.

Biden will win SC, but his elan is gone by that point, and he will also have a Bloomberg stealing votes from him starting Super Tuesday, seriously not helping matters for him at that point.

Also, Sanders not doing well with black voters is a myth. He's not doing as well as Biden, but he still gets 25% of the black vote in the latest morning consult: https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Morning-Consult-Political-Intelligence-Weekly-Report_January-22-2020.pdf

Buttigieg doesn't only has little chances because of his orientation, but much worse is that only white people vote for him, just look at the morning consult poll I linked above.

But maybe it's wise to have Sanders tell you why voting for him is awesome:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjmT-zx4nyI

Really powerful message!

um wut? M4A is popular, Majority of Americans want it, Majority of Dems, INDEPENDENTS AND REPUBLICANS are in favour of it. M4A has been polling as incredibly popular and favourable for the last 4 - 5 years. Its dropped recently because of the constant attacks from the industry but it is still overwhelmingly popular.

Also where are these takes coming from? Biden's record is trash so yea he's done, Pete's problem isn't his sexuality. Its that he stands for nothing and has no real ideas. His sexual orientation has nothing to do with how poorly he's doing. His short record and the way he calculates and moves like a slime ball is what has done him in.

On top of that bernie will fail to carry down ballot? Are you watching the same election I am? Bernie is the people's candidate, the most popular choice, the one independents and even republicans are willing to support. If Bernie is at the top of the ticket a lot of the people who are voting will simply vote blue down ballot On top of that, he will bring an influx of non-voters to vote as well as new voters who will vote blue down ballot as long as he's on the top of the ticket. People said the same about Obama and he had a super majority running on a progressive message that energized the base (even if he was a con man). Bernie is all that but actually walks the walk.

If Dems want to win like I said in my previous post, they need a high voter turn out. The person who can drive people to the polls right now, who has the most enthusiasm is Bernie and if you go policy by policy almost everything he advocates for is popular. M4A is Popular and over 50% of republicans support it. Free College, cancelling student and medical debt. I can go on, but Bernie's policies are very popular and he already has outlined how he would get them passed which I stated in one of my last posts.

My mistake. M4A is popular, but less popular than a public option. https://www.kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-january-2020/

I wouldn't call 56% incredibly popularity though. Pretty sure Republicans are overwhelmingly against M4A. Do you have any polls showing otherwise?

Pete's sexuality isn't an issue with the primary, it's an issue with the general election. America still has lots of bigots that will come out in droves to keep gay sex from "tainting" the white house. 

What makes you think Bernie polls well amoungst republicans? Since Bernie is further left than most Dems, I would assume that republicans hate him as much as they hate AOC. 

To quote your source ", the latest KFF tracking poll finds that a majority of Americans favor a national Medicare-for-all health plan (56%) but a larger share favors a government-administered “public option” (68%). Notably, nearly half of adults (48%) favor both of these proposals."

So there is a large overlap, and while more would like a public option, they all seem to agree that either would be better than what is in place right now.

Besides, M4A and a public option are not necessarily opposing each other. Many countries like Germany, France, the Benelux countries, and so on, both have an M4A as a public option and private options along with it. The public M4A sets a high base of coverage that the private insurers must beat to be seen as worthwhile. And I think that this is a way that could also work in the US.

Its Old, but before the Industry, Biden, and Pete started to attack the hell out of M4A with lies, misinformation and Disinformation Medicare for all was at a 70% approval rating: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/403248-poll-seventy-percent-of-americans-support-medicare-for-all

On top of that, the dynamic in america isn't really left vs right. Its class vs class. The faster americans wake up to that the better. The top 1% and their millionair friends really don't care whose in charge, it doesn't really affect them. They just hate Trump cause he makes it harder to keep that "farce" alive. He puts an ugly face on the problem and instead of being the classic wordy, con artist. He tells it like it is in a lot of ways which is a big no no cause he's exposing the con. This is especially true with our foreign policy. But I will point you to 2 instances of which Bernie wins over republicans and why he's the best chance to win the election from trump

Thanks. I'll look at all that on Saturday. Still caucusing for Bernie BTW. Just getting nervous about him and the general. 

Well, as has been pointed out, you're wrong about Medicare for all being unpopular.

More broadly though, there is a healthy amount of game theory to apply to politics, but this (above) is too much. I'm all for choosing reasonably viable candidates, but at the end of the day, you should vote for a candidate you actually support on balance, not for whoever you think is the most popular.