After you read my post?

edit: weren't you reluctant up until launch day?

So while you were trying to downplay the 'high' price I was making Rol threads and getting banned for trolling 'the simpletons'?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224736&page=1

You can always apply again next year.

Sales from Wii U to Switch don't necessarily scale equally though.

Smash sold 5.35m on Wii U but sold 12 million on Switch in less than a month.

3D World sold 5.8m on Wii U but Odyssey was at 13.76m at the end of 2018.

Yeah, i know it's not an exact science but i think splatoon to splatoon2 sales difference could at least give us a good guideline.

Why specifically Splatoon to Splatoon 2 though rather than 3D World to Odyssey or Smash 4 to Smash 5?

Well, for starters both Splatoon and Mario Maker were new IPs first on WiiU and got their first sequels now on Switch. Also Smash 4 and 3D World were counted often as weak entries in their respective series. Many prefered Melee (because of competitive play) or Brawl (because of single player mode) over Smash 4. I don't know much about 3D World, but I read here in the forums it being mocked as more handheld title (funny that the hybrid Switch now got a more majpr 3D Mario). You could also compare to Tropical Freeze. NSMBU and Mario Kart, these titles were generally seen positively on WiiU. But they got straight up ports, not sequels. Insofar for me Splatoon looks like the best blueprint.

But let's take a look at the numbers. I take the Nintendos report for the numbers (except Tropical Freeze, which isn't included).

Obviously this varies wildly.

Let's take some percentages as an insight how NSMBUD and Mario Maker 2 might do:

OK, as you can see, I think for NSMBUD to get to 10M should be possible, it has to do basically as well as Mario Kart in comparison, and I think with the legs Splatoon get also to 175% (probably even 200%). For Mario Maker that isn't enough. It has to grow stronger than Mario Party or Odyssey to get to 10M. Not impossible I guess, but it seems extremely difficult.

I just think it's a good comparison. Both are direct sequels and both sold originally in the same ballpark, going by the numbers posted here.

Good and interesting comparison, but there’s a side-note; games haven’t stopped selling. Especially Odyssey, Mario Party and Smash’s percentages will grow substantionally, maybe even reaching as high as 300% or it’s WiiU predecessors. With that, Mario Maker would’ve easily beaten 10m as well.

I don't see anything that leads me to think that Mario Maker 2 will sell more than 10 millions.

I think that this game being about building levels hurt this sales. New Super Mario Bros Switch would sell way more than Mario Maker 2.