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Forums - Sales Discussion - When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

 

When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

Q1-2 2019 69 4.20%
 
Q3-4 2019 552 33.58%
 
Q1-2 2020 394 23.97%
 
Q3-4 2020 363 22.08%
 
Q1-2 2021 68 4.14%
 
Q3-4 2021 53 3.22%
 
Q1-2 2022 15 0.91%
 
Q3-4 2022 11 0.67%
 
2023 or later 19 1.16%
 
Never 100 6.08%
 
Total:1,644
konnichiwa said:
A more interesting question would be, will it surpass for the next xbox release =p.

Next Xbox is most likely coming late 2020 so of course Switch will surpass XB1 before next Xbox is released.



 

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The latest hardware numbers (Dec 15th) bring the gap down by 800k to 15.3 million, with the week before christmas still to come.

By the end of 2018 the gap should have shrunk to approximately 14 million.

When Switch launched, Xbox One was at 28.8 million, so that was the initial gap.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 07 January 2019

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

The latest hardware numbers (Dec 15th) bring the gap down by 800k to 15.3 million, with the week before christmas still to come.

By the end of 2018 the gap should have shrunk to approximately 14 million.

When Switch launched, Xbox One was at 28 million, so that was the initial gap.

28.76m units by 4th March 2017

EDIT: ops, sorry I didn't notice that you edited your post lol



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End of 2019 at the latest.



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Did the same people who thought Switch would sell like the Wii U also said Never?



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It's looking like Switch will have closed the gap by about 8 and a half million units in 2018, a year where it had a huge holiday but spent January-October on cruise control with no big releases.

If Nintendo get Animal Crossing out this Summer, Pokemon Gen 8 in November, and a hardware revision/price cut or both in around October, I think they should be able to sell significantly more Switch hardware this year than in 2018, while Xbox One will likely be down YOY simply due to its age.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I've gone with Q3-4 2020, although I'm expecting it to do so before then.



Probably not this year if VGC numbers are to be trusted ...




Q3-4 2019

Shipments

GBA DS  Switch
FY1  1.07 5.27  2.74
FY2 17.09 11.46 15.05
FY3 15.65 23.56 20.00
FY4 17.59 30.31
FY5 15.40 31.18
FY6   8.83 27.11
FY7   4.34 17.52
FY8   1.59  5.10
FY9   0.42  2.35
FY10 0.04 0.13

Average of GBADS Switch
FY1 3.17  2.74
FY2 14.27 15.05
FY3 19.60 20.00
FY4 23.95
FY5 23.29
FY6 17.97
FY7 10.93
FY8  3.34
FY9  1.38
FY10 0.08



Okay, much as I agree Switch will definitely pass Xbox One lifetime, I don't see why so many are so confident it'll happen this year.

That's a 14 million gap to close, while the gap shrank by roughly 8.5 million in 2018. So we'd have to see a YOY combined Switch increase/Xbone decline of 5.5 million in 2019 for Switch to take point. That's a tall order.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.