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Forums - Sales Discussion - When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

 

When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

Q1-2 2019 69 4.20%
 
Q3-4 2019 552 33.58%
 
Q1-2 2020 394 23.97%
 
Q3-4 2020 363 22.08%
 
Q1-2 2021 68 4.14%
 
Q3-4 2021 53 3.22%
 
Q1-2 2022 15 0.91%
 
Q3-4 2022 11 0.67%
 
2023 or later 19 1.16%
 
Never 100 6.08%
 
Total:1,644

Assuming VGC numbers are correct?Switch should pass XBox One by the end of June of 2019.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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Nautilus said:
Assuming VGC numbers are correct?Switch should pass XBox One by the end of June of 2019.

How?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Nautilus said:
Assuming VGC numbers are correct?Switch should pass XBox One by the end of June of 2019.

How?

I guess it depends how strong the first half of 2019 will be for the Switch and how weak will be the first half for XOne.

 

But Im imagining that the Switch will be able to reach their 20 million sales projection for this fiscal year.Hell I even expect it to sell one extra million or two more than Nintendo expects(simply because it seems that it did better than anyone think this december).So that would put the Switch betwenn 38 to 40 million.

Then Nintendo would have to sell an extra 5 or 6 million, give or take, betwenn April and June.If Animal Crossing launches by the end of June, coupled with Fire Emblem, god knows what else, and the increased Switch momentum(I dont expect the Switch to sell less, in 2019, than it did this year) they may be able to pull that number.

And yeah, with gen 8 dwindling down, I dont expect XOne to pull big numbers betwenn January and June.So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne.

Oh, and those are shipped numbers of course, since we would be using Nintendo numbers.I know this is bold and not so easy to accomplish, but I feel that this might just happen.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
zorg1000 said:

How?

I guess it depends how strong the first half of 2019 will be for the Switch and how weak will be the first half for XOne.

 

But Im imagining that the Switch will be able to reach their 20 million sales projection for this fiscal year.Hell I even expect it to sell one extra million or two more than Nintendo expects(simply because it seems that it did better than anyone think this december).So that would put the Switch betwenn 38 to 40 million.

Then Nintendo would have to sell an extra 5 or 6 million, give or take, betwenn April and June.If Animal Crossing launches by the end of June, coupled with Fire Emblem, god knows what else, and the increased Switch momentum(I dont expect the Switch to sell less, in 2019, than it did this year) they may be able to pull that number.

And yeah, with gen 8 dwindling down, I dont expect XOne to pull big numbers betwenn January and June.So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne.

Oh, and those are shipped numbers of course, since we would be using Nintendo numbers.I know this is bold and not so easy to accomplish, but I feel that this might just happen.

It's not possible. Switch isn't selling another 20 million in the same time frame that XBO sells 3 million which is what you are proposing.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Nautilus said:

I guess it depends how strong the first half of 2019 will be for the Switch and how weak will be the first half for XOne.

 

But Im imagining that the Switch will be able to reach their 20 million sales projection for this fiscal year.Hell I even expect it to sell one extra million or two more than Nintendo expects(simply because it seems that it did better than anyone think this december).So that would put the Switch betwenn 38 to 40 million.

Then Nintendo would have to sell an extra 5 or 6 million, give or take, betwenn April and June.If Animal Crossing launches by the end of June, coupled with Fire Emblem, god knows what else, and the increased Switch momentum(I dont expect the Switch to sell less, in 2019, than it did this year) they may be able to pull that number.

And yeah, with gen 8 dwindling down, I dont expect XOne to pull big numbers betwenn January and June.So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne.

Oh, and those are shipped numbers of course, since we would be using Nintendo numbers.I know this is bold and not so easy to accomplish, but I feel that this might just happen.

It's not possible. Switch isn't selling another 20 million in the same time frame that XBO sells 3 million which is what you are proposing.

What?No, the Switch would have to sell 5 or 6 million by the end of June(Im assuming that Holidays will do the heavy lifting for the 20 million mark), since it will be betwenn 38 and 40 millions by the end of march and then XOne to sell the 3 million give or take for the Switch to pass it.

Where are you getting this "Have to sell another 20 million" from?



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Around the Network
Nautilus said:
zorg1000 said:

It's not possible. Switch isn't selling another 20 million in the same time frame that XBO sells 3 million which is what you are proposing.

What?No, the Switch would have to sell 5 or 6 million by the end of June(Im assuming that Holidays will do the heavy lifting for the 20 million mark), since it will be betwenn 38 and 40 millions by the end of march and then XOne to sell the 3 million give or take for the Switch to pass it.

Where are you getting this "Have to sell another 20 million" from?

You said, "So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne."

Numbers as of Dec 8

NSW-26.1 million

XBO-42.3 million

In order to accomplish that, it would need to sell 19-20 million in the same time XBO sells 3-4 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Nautilus said:

What?No, the Switch would have to sell 5 or 6 million by the end of June(Im assuming that Holidays will do the heavy lifting for the 20 million mark), since it will be betwenn 38 and 40 millions by the end of march and then XOne to sell the 3 million give or take for the Switch to pass it.

Where are you getting this "Have to sell another 20 million" from?

You said, "So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne."

Numbers as of Dec 8

NSW-26.1 million

XBO-42.3 million

In order to accomplish that, it would need to sell 19-20 million in the same time XBO sells 3-4 million.

Oh, from now you mean?Then yes, I do believe so.

By end of march it will be around 40 millions shipped, if we are to believe that the forecast will be correct(and maybe it will even do a bit better than expected), then why should it be impossible?And XOne is selling at a snails pace, even if it will end up selling more than 50 millions LT, which is a good number at the end of the day.So by the time January hits, I expect it to return to sell at a snails pace yet again.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

With the current rate (averaging last 12 months), the date is 21st of November 2020 or 102 weeks from the latest figures. Based on my calculations, both of them should reach 55 million mark by that time. But I'm pretty sure that XB sales will diminish with time, so if the Switch stays at the same level, we should see it outselling XB1 no later than in Q2 2020 (that's with the 30% decrease in XB1 sales).

Edit: For those who predicted that it's going to happen before 2020, Switch in 2019 would have to start outselling XB1 with the ratio of over 4:1. Personally I don't think it's going to happen, but who knows.

Last edited by Kristof81 - on 06 January 2019

Nautilus said:
zorg1000 said:

You said, "So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne."

Numbers as of Dec 8

NSW-26.1 million

XBO-42.3 million

In order to accomplish that, it would need to sell 19-20 million in the same time XBO sells 3-4 million.

Oh, from now you mean?Then yes, I do believe so.

By end of march it will be around 40 millions shipped, if we are to believe that the forecast will be correct(and maybe it will even do a bit better than expected), then why should it be impossible?And XOne is selling at a snails pace, even if it will end up selling more than 50 millions LT, which is a good number at the end of the day.So by the time January hits, I expect it to return to sell at a snails pace yet again.

None of that is realistic at all. It would have to outperform peak Wii & DS level of shipments.

They might hit their fiscal year goal but they will not pass it by 2+ million and they are not shipping 5-6 million from April-June. Shipments will be 37-38 million by the end of March and add another ~3 million for April-June putting it it around 40-41 million by the end of June.

XBO sell through will be ~44 million at the end of 2018 and add another 1.5-2 million for Jan-June (down from 2.5m in 2018) bringing it to 45.5-46 million so shipments of ~47 million.

 

Switch will likely surpass XBO this year but it will be near the holidays, not in Spring.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Nautilus said:

Oh, from now you mean?Then yes, I do believe so.

By end of march it will be around 40 millions shipped, if we are to believe that the forecast will be correct(and maybe it will even do a bit better than expected), then why should it be impossible?And XOne is selling at a snails pace, even if it will end up selling more than 50 millions LT, which is a good number at the end of the day.So by the time January hits, I expect it to return to sell at a snails pace yet again.

None of that is realistic at all. It would have to outperform peak Wii & DS level of shipments.

They might hit their fiscal year goal but they will not pass it by 2+ million and they are not shipping 5-6 million from April-June. Shipments will be 37-38 million by the end of March and add another ~3 million for April-June putting it it around 40-41 million by the end of June.

XBO sell through will be ~44 million at the end of 2018 and add another 1.5-2 million for Jan-June (down from 2.5m in 2018) bringing it to 45.5-46 million so shipments of ~47 million.

 

Switch will likely surpass XBO this year but it will be near the holidays, not in Spring.

Never said it was realistic.And yeah, I cant object to what you just said.Its more of a gut feeling to me.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1