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Forums - Sales Discussion - When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

 

When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

Q1-2 2019 69 4.20%
 
Q3-4 2019 552 33.58%
 
Q1-2 2020 394 23.97%
 
Q3-4 2020 363 22.08%
 
Q1-2 2021 68 4.14%
 
Q3-4 2021 53 3.22%
 
Q1-2 2022 15 0.91%
 
Q3-4 2022 11 0.67%
 
2023 or later 19 1.16%
 
Never 100 6.08%
 
Total:1,644
Kristof81 on 06 January 2019

With the current rate (averaging last 12 months), the date is 21st of November 2020 or 102 weeks from the latest figures. Based on my calculations, both of them should reach 55 million mark by that time. But I'm pretty sure that XB sales will diminish with time, so if the Switch stays at the same level, we should see it outselling XB1 no later than in Q2 2020 (that's with the 30% decrease in XB1 sales).

Edit: For those who predicted that it's going to happen before 2020, Switch in 2019 would have to start outselling XB1 with the ratio of over 4:1. Personally I don't think it's going to happen, but who knows.

Last edited by Kristof81 - on 06 January 2019

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zorg1000 on 06 January 2019
Nautilus said:
zorg1000 said:

You said, "So with 45 to 46 million units sold, Switch should at least match and most likely pass the XOne."

Numbers as of Dec 8

NSW-26.1 million

XBO-42.3 million

In order to accomplish that, it would need to sell 19-20 million in the same time XBO sells 3-4 million.

Oh, from now you mean?Then yes, I do believe so.

By end of march it will be around 40 millions shipped, if we are to believe that the forecast will be correct(and maybe it will even do a bit better than expected), then why should it be impossible?And XOne is selling at a snails pace, even if it will end up selling more than 50 millions LT, which is a good number at the end of the day.So by the time January hits, I expect it to return to sell at a snails pace yet again.

None of that is realistic at all. It would have to outperform peak Wii & DS level of shipments.

They might hit their fiscal year goal but they will not pass it by 2+ million and they are not shipping 5-6 million from April-June. Shipments will be 37-38 million by the end of March and add another ~3 million for April-June putting it it around 40-41 million by the end of June.

XBO sell through will be ~44 million at the end of 2018 and add another 1.5-2 million for Jan-June (down from 2.5m in 2018) bringing it to 45.5-46 million so shipments of ~47 million.

 

Switch will likely surpass XBO this year but it will be near the holidays, not in Spring.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Nautilus on 06 January 2019
zorg1000 said:
Nautilus said:

Oh, from now you mean?Then yes, I do believe so.

By end of march it will be around 40 millions shipped, if we are to believe that the forecast will be correct(and maybe it will even do a bit better than expected), then why should it be impossible?And XOne is selling at a snails pace, even if it will end up selling more than 50 millions LT, which is a good number at the end of the day.So by the time January hits, I expect it to return to sell at a snails pace yet again.

None of that is realistic at all. It would have to outperform peak Wii & DS level of shipments.

They might hit their fiscal year goal but they will not pass it by 2+ million and they are not shipping 5-6 million from April-June. Shipments will be 37-38 million by the end of March and add another ~3 million for April-June putting it it around 40-41 million by the end of June.

XBO sell through will be ~44 million at the end of 2018 and add another 1.5-2 million for Jan-June (down from 2.5m in 2018) bringing it to 45.5-46 million so shipments of ~47 million.

 

Switch will likely surpass XBO this year but it will be near the holidays, not in Spring.

Never said it was realistic.And yeah, I cant object to what you just said.Its more of a gut feeling to me.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Bofferbrauer2 on 06 January 2019

In 11 months, give or take. Pokemon release will be super-effective for that



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

DroidKnight on 06 January 2019
Machina said:

This week's front-page poll.

Given all of the speculation surrounding holiday HW sales, and whether the Switch will hit its goals, I thought this would be a good point at which to set down some markers of the site's expectations vis-a-vis the Xbox One. Then, in a few year's time, we can look back and see how close or far off everyone was.

When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

Q1-2 2019

Q3-4 2019

Q1-2 2020

Q3-4 2020

Q1-2 2021

Q3-4 2021

Q1-2 2022

Q3-4 2022

2023 or later

Never

Again?  This is the same thread you did in July. Which one will be used for the results?  



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

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DroidKnight on 06 January 2019

When, If At All, Do You Think the Switch Will...



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

DroidKnight on 06 January 2019
Machina said:
DroidKnight said:

Again?  This is the same thread you did in July. Which one will be used for the results?  

Oh shit I didn't realise I did one back in July. I'm juggling too many things. Will use both if I remember that there are two.

Lol.  I'll stick with my original, though I'll probably be off by a Quarter.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

AngryLittleAlchemist on 07 January 2019
Machina said:
DroidKnight said:

Again?  This is the same thread you did in July. Which one will be used for the results?  

Oh shit I didn't realise I did one back in July. I'm juggling too many things. Will use both if I remember that there are two.

LMAO. Thought I was going crazy!  



Miyamotoo on 07 January 2019

At end of this year is safe bet, especially if we go buy Nintendo official numbers, Switch should end this year with 55m+ shipped units.



derpysquirtle64 on 07 January 2019

Late 2019