Right, when the new consoles launch it will have been about 7 years.

For what its worth we're still like 20 months away from that and still plenty to play until then, but I do believe 8th gen should take a hit from the hype of 9th gen.

Actually the X1 has been pretty stable even without a big number of exclusives to push. I mean the X1's 2018 sales should be at or better than 2017. The only thing that I can see hurting the X1's sales this year is 9th gen hype. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if the X1 declined to like 5 million.

But what if MS delivers big news for the 9th gen AND the X1 at E3? Maybe they could a announce a slew of games planned for the 9th gen and that same content is also coming to X1. Hence, they could still get people hyped about X1 content at the next two E3 events, that would help with some of the decline.

Definitely a matter of when, not if.

I'm gonna be conservative and say second half of 2020 to be on the safe side, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened towards the end of this year.

definitely not sure if it happens at all.... the switch sold 13 million 2018 and there is no reason why the sales should increase or the sales of xone should slow down withouht the release of a new gen but then switch sales would decline also.

You might want to check your information there. The front page's tally is only up to the 8th of December, so missing the two weeks before Christmas that are two of the biggest of the year, and the following week.

Xbox One is in its 6th year now and will naturally decline with age. Switch on the other hand is selling much faster and will continue to do so throughout this year and beyond with price cuts, hardware revisions, and system sellers like Animal Crossing and Pokemon Gen 8.

Q1-2 2020.

Front page numbers say that there's a difference of 16 million units between both consoles, but that's as of December 8th. While both machines will sell well this Xmas, the Switch will sell quite a few more units, reducing that gap to 13-14 if not less. Give it 2019 with the launch of system sellers like Pokemon and maybe Animal Crossing plus new exclusives, while the XOne saves the new games for its next console, and the Switch should take over the second place by next Xmas.

Sometime in 2020 I suspect.

People who are questioning why the X1 would be in decline mode should also take a look at a recent digital foundry video on the console when they talk about how the original Xbox1 base hardware is pretty much dead, partially because of the ESRAM being more difficult to work around, the systems lack of power to begin with and the sales of it not encouraging companies to invest more dev time they've pointed out that the difference in 3rd party multiplatforms performance on that system borders into unplayable for a handful of games, so the base version of the system is now getting less and less quality 3rd party titles coming to it.... well they're there but at sub 720p and with no holds on the frame rate.

In terms of hardware revisions or replacements though, there is the rumoured Switch revision coming or being revealed in March of this year which could spike sales if it's going to be a DS > DSLite type redesign for Nintendo and also it must be kept in mind that there was talk about the replacement for the X1 not being a whole new system but more an evolution of that system with more power, so.... the X1X2 basically, as in if it's going to be a system which is forwards compatible as it was spoke about you could see the next gen of Xbox machine technically still being an Xbox 1 so the sales would decline with the announcement of the new system but would resume when it launched as they would be in the same generation of system.

In about 1 year from now, so Q4 when lucky, Q1 2020 more realistically.

Could actually be holiday this year tbh the impact PLG and Smash have had recently would have closed the gap significantly quicker especially if we see a 5-6m December for NS and the impact of AC, Gen 8, FE etc will have this year could see the platform catch X1 this holiday.

No later than December