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Forums - Sales Discussion - When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

 

When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

Q1-2 2019 69 4.20%
 
Q3-4 2019 552 33.58%
 
Q1-2 2020 394 23.97%
 
Q3-4 2020 363 22.08%
 
Q1-2 2021 68 4.14%
 
Q3-4 2021 53 3.22%
 
Q1-2 2022 15 0.91%
 
Q3-4 2022 11 0.67%
 
2023 or later 19 1.16%
 
Never 100 6.08%
 
Total:1,644

I would predict first quarter of 2020.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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Most likely in the 2nd half of this year.



mZuzek said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Its actually possible if the X1 sales see a decline from something like a console announcement and the Switch has another year at par or better than 2018.

I'm leaning 2020, but 2019 could happen if Switch does like 20 million.

I think Switch is definitelly selling 20 million this year, but I'm not so sure Xbox One sales will slow down that much.

X1 will definitely decline if last gen is any indication. The same year X1 and PS4 was announced the 7th gen consoles declined.

But if MS says there will be continued support of X1, that could help with potential sales. I'm guessing X1 will be closer to 5 million in 2019, I don't think X1 crossing 50 million is a guarantee this year.

Personally I think a smart move would be to release a final revision of the base X1 that actually switches to a faster RAM and GPU boost at par with PS4. A remodel like that at $199 could stimulate some sales and give better performance to the existing library. Not sure if that's in the cards though, maybe MS will sooner discontinue the X1S and push the X1X as the budget console after revisions.

Hence, how the X1 performs in 2019 and even 2020 depends on how MS positions X1/X1X with 9th gen around the corner. I anticipate the cross gen support for X1 will be pretty good, certainly better than what 360 had.



Recently Completed
River City: Rival Showdown
for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

Mr Puggsly said:
mZuzek said:

I think Switch is definitelly selling 20 million this year, but I'm not so sure Xbox One sales will slow down that much.

X1 will definitely decline if last gen is any indication. The same year X1 and PS4 was announced the 7th gen consoles declined.

But if MS says there will be continued support of X1, that could help with potential sales. I'm guessing X1 will be closer to 5 million in 2019, I don't think X1 crossing 50 million is a guarantee this year.

Personally I think a smart move would be to release a final revision of the base X1 that actually switches to a faster RAM and GPU boost at par with PS4. A remodel like that at $199 could stimulate some sales and give better performance to the existing library. Not sure if that's in the cards though, maybe MS will sooner discontinue the X1S and push the X1X as the budget console after revisions.

Hence, how the X1 performs in 2019 and even 2020 depends on how MS positions X1/X1X with 9th gen around the corner. I anticipate the cross gen support for X1 will be pretty good, certainly better than what 360 had.

Is it really next-gen time already, though? Feels like it hasn't been long at all since the XBO/PS4 reveals, but it's almost 6 years ago already. Yikes.

Well, in any case. Of course XBO sales will decline, that'll happen regardless of whether a successor is revealed this year or not (or a PS5 for that matter, it'd probably affect its sales too), the question is how much.



For when I Ctrl + F my name in a few years' time: I voted Q3-4 2020.



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mZuzek said:
Mr Puggsly said:

X1 will definitely decline if last gen is any indication. The same year X1 and PS4 was announced the 7th gen consoles declined.

But if MS says there will be continued support of X1, that could help with potential sales. I'm guessing X1 will be closer to 5 million in 2019, I don't think X1 crossing 50 million is a guarantee this year.

Personally I think a smart move would be to release a final revision of the base X1 that actually switches to a faster RAM and GPU boost at par with PS4. A remodel like that at $199 could stimulate some sales and give better performance to the existing library. Not sure if that's in the cards though, maybe MS will sooner discontinue the X1S and push the X1X as the budget console after revisions.

Hence, how the X1 performs in 2019 and even 2020 depends on how MS positions X1/X1X with 9th gen around the corner. I anticipate the cross gen support for X1 will be pretty good, certainly better than what 360 had.

Is it really next-gen time already, though? Feels like it hasn't been long at all since the XBO/PS4 reveals, but it's almost 6 years ago already. Yikes.

Well, in any case. Of course XBO sales will decline, that'll happen regardless of whether a successor is revealed this year or not (or a PS5 for that matter, it'd probably affect its sales too), the question is how much.

Right, when the new consoles launch it will have been about 7 years.

For what its worth we're still like 20 months away from that and still plenty to play until then, but I do believe 8th gen should take a hit from the hype of 9th gen.

Actually the X1 has been pretty stable even without a big number of exclusives to push. I mean the X1's 2018 sales should be at or better than 2017. The only thing that I can see hurting the X1's sales this year is 9th gen hype. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if the X1 declined to like 5 million.

But what if MS delivers big news for the 9th gen AND the X1 at E3? Maybe they could a announce a slew of games planned for the 9th gen and that same content is also coming to X1. Hence, they could still get people hyped about X1 content at the next two E3 events, that would help with some of the decline.



Recently Completed
River City: Rival Showdown
for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

Definitely a matter of when, not if.

I'm gonna be conservative and say second half of 2020 to be on the safe side, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened towards the end of this year.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

Definitely a matter of when, not if.

I'm gonna be conservative and say second half of 2020 to be on the safe side, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened towards the end of this year.

definitely not sure if it happens at all.... the switch sold 13 million 2018 and there is no reason why the sales should increase or the sales of xone should slow down withouht the release of a new gen but then switch sales would decline also.



Jigsawx1 said:
curl-6 said:

Definitely a matter of when, not if.

I'm gonna be conservative and say second half of 2020 to be on the safe side, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened towards the end of this year.

definitely not sure if it happens at all.... the switch sold 13 million 2018 and there is no reason why the sales should increase or the sales of xone should slow down withouht the release of a new gen but then switch sales would decline also.

You might want to check your information there. The front page's tally is only up to the 8th of December, so missing the two weeks before Christmas that are two of the biggest of the year, and the following week.

Xbox One is in its 6th year now and will naturally decline with age. Switch on the other hand is selling much faster and will continue to do so throughout this year and beyond with price cuts, hardware revisions, and system sellers like Animal Crossing and Pokemon Gen 8.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 06 January 2019

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Q1-2 2020.

Front page numbers say that there's a difference of 16 million units between both consoles, but that's as of December 8th. While both machines will sell well this Xmas, the Switch will sell quite a few more units, reducing that gap to 13-14 if not less. Give it 2019 with the launch of system sellers like Pokemon and maybe Animal Crossing plus new exclusives, while the XOne saves the new games for its next console, and the Switch should take over the second place by next Xmas.



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Currently gaming on a PC with an i5-4670k@stock (for now), 16Gb RAM 1600 MHz and a GTX 1070

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