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curl-6 on 10 January 2019
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zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Okay, much as I agree Switch will definitely pass Xbox One lifetime, I don't see why so many are so confident it'll happen this year.

That's a 14 million gap to close, while the gap shrank by roughly 8.5 million in 2018. So we'd have to see a YOY combined Switch increase/Xbone decline of 5.5 million in 2019 for Switch to take point. That's a tall order.

Looking more like the gap shrank by 9 million or more in 2018.

YTD 2018 (2 weeks left)

NSW-14.3m

XBO-6.9m

Difference-7.4m

 

Last 2 weeks 2017

NSW-1.86m

XBO-0.73m

Difference-1.13m

 

Switch is having a significantly stronger December than last year while XBO is roughly flat. Up ~30% vs up ~2% in first half of month. If the next two weeks follow that than it will be

Last 2 weeks of 2018

NSW-2.42m

XBO-0.74m


2018 Total

NSW-16.72m

XBO-7.64m

Difference-9.08m

Ah, I didn't realize, thanks.

Still, that means we'll have to go from a 9 million gain in 2018 to a 13.5 million gain in 2019. Not impossible, but still a big enough jump to be far from guaranteed.