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That will depend on X1 pricing, so let`s see:

Scenario 1:  

MS dropping their prices early on the year:
X1X at ~$429.99 with $349.99 holidays promotions
X1S at ~$249.99 with $179.99 holidays promotions
End of 2018 -  43.5m
End of 2019 -  43.5m + 7.5 = 51m (MINIMUM)

Scenario 2:  

MS dropping the ball and not cutting their prices early on the year:
End of 2018 -  43.5m
End of 2019 -  43.5m + 5.5 = ~49m

 

Switch only scenario (sorry but I just do not see Nintendo cutting the price nor doing any refresh model this year).

End of 2018 -  30m
End of 2019 -  30m + 19 = ~49m

 

So..  my answer would be either Q1 or Q2 2020.