chakkra on 10 January 2019
That will depend on X1 pricing, so let`s see:
X1X at ~$429.99 with $349.99 holidays promotions
X1S at ~$249.99 with $179.99 holidays promotions
End of 2018 - 43.5m
End of 2019 - 43.5m + 7.5 = 51m (MINIMUM)
End of 2018 - 43.5m
End of 2019 - 43.5m + 5.5 = ~49m
End of 2019 - 30m + 19 = ~49m
Scenario 1:
MS dropping their prices early on the year:X1X at ~$429.99 with $349.99 holidays promotions
X1S at ~$249.99 with $179.99 holidays promotions
End of 2018 - 43.5m
End of 2019 - 43.5m + 7.5 = 51m (MINIMUM)
Scenario 2:
MS dropping the ball and not cutting their prices early on the year:End of 2018 - 43.5m
End of 2019 - 43.5m + 5.5 = ~49m
Switch only scenario (sorry but I just do not see Nintendo cutting the price nor doing any refresh model this year).
End of 2018 - 30mEnd of 2019 - 30m + 19 = ~49m
So.. my answer would be either Q1 or Q2 2020.