Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Michael Pachter: "Switch is tracking to sell 13 million this year"

CGI-Quality said:
"Sony skipping E3 2019 is bad"
"Switch will sell just 13 million units in its 3rd year"

Nintendo and Sony are in for a hell of great year then!

Who knows ? Maybe he's from the Twilight Zone actually ... :)



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I'm convinced he just does this for attention at this point.

Somebody needs to make a compilation of all his hilariously wrong predictions over the years. He's been off the mark more often than the average weatherman, and the idea that Switch is going to tank in a year with Animal Crossing, Next Gen Pokemon, and reportedly a new hardware revision, is just ridiculous. Reminds me of the classic "Switch is going to fall off a cliff in 2018" prophecy.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 03 January 2019

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Theres a reason why he keeps giving these predictions...... just look at the amount of replies this thread has.....



Pocky Lover Boy! 

drinkandswim said:
I mean granted he was right if it wasn't for November and December where they sold probably around 10 million systems. Its kind of hard to predict a system will go from a 1 million global a month to 3.3 and 6+.

Christmas is kinda a predictable event that an industry analyst might wanna account for.



Okay, re-reading the article it is kind of confusingly written.

Has Pachter actually said Switch is headed for 13 million in 2019, or is that just the prediction of the article's author? And is the 13 million prediction for calendar 2019, FY ending March 2019, calendar 2018? It's all rather vague and poorly articulated.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:

Okay, re-reading the article it is kind of confusingly written.

Has Pachter actually said Switch is headed for 13 million in 2019, or is that just the prediction of the article's author? And is the 13 million prediction for calendar 2019, FY ending March 2019, calendar 2018? It's all rather vague and poorly articulated.

The 13 million figure was in "last year's report card".  So it would be for 2018.  Which means that Pachter can't even predict the past with marginal accuracy.

Now the strange thing is that the 20 million number wasn't around last January when he would have presumably made this prediction.  Nintendo didn't make the prediction that they would ship 20 million Switches in fiscal year 2018 until the beginning of the fiscal year in April.  So I think that not only is this prediction not an A+.  I think he's flat out lying that he made the prediction at all unless there's some weird coincidence that he pulled the 20 million number out of his butt and then said Nintendo wouldn't hit it.



You do know that this was when 2018 success for Switch was warranted right?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

curl-6 said:

Okay, re-reading the article it is kind of confusingly written.

Has Pachter actually said Switch is headed for 13 million in 2019, or is that just the prediction of the article's author? And is the 13 million prediction for calendar 2019, FY ending March 2019, calendar 2018? It's all rather vague and poorly articulated.

Seems to be a yearly edition where a few analysts submit predictions for the upcoming year while reviewing their own predictions from the previous year. The author of the article doesn't have any input beyond the introduction for the article, so you are reading Pachter giving himself a pat on the back for no good reason.

Pachter says that his prediction that Switch won't sell 20m units in calendar year 2018 is worthy of an A+ grade because Switch is on pace for only 13m. Of course that 13m figure is nonsense because Switch will easily be above 16m, but that's Pachter for you.

The reason why Pachter chose 20m to begin with is that there were rumors in late 2017 that Nintendo plans to ship 20m+ units in the fiscal year ending March 2019 and an actual interview with Nintendo president Kawashima in December 2017 also had such a question; Kawashima answered something along the lines of it being possible that that will be Nintendo's actual forecast, but obviously did not confirm it at that point. While calendar years and fiscal years are different things, Pachter ran with the number because he loves to set up things in a way that Nintendo falls short. I guess at the start of 2018 he was pissed that Switch didn't sell at his predicted pace of 1m in the fiscal year ending March 2017 and 5m in the fiscal year ending March 2018.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:

I guess at the start of 2018 he was pissed that Switch didn't sell at his predicted pace of 1m in the fiscal year ending March 2017 and 5m in the fiscal year ending March 2018.

Haha, I forgot about that little gem. He was only off by what, 10 million and some change? 



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Lol. Pachter is the industry funny man.