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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 40 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - October 1-7, 2018

zorg1000 said:
Train wreck said:

By this point in the Switch's lifecycle, I would expect a significant disparity between it and the PS4 when it comes to third party titles releasing on the same day (especially those that favor the Switch audience) but 3rd party Switch titles are receiving the Vita sales treatment...which isn't good (from the publishers perspective).

Anybody who has payed attention to Japanese sales for the last few years knows that it takes awhile for 3rd party sales to transition from 1 platform to the next.

The exact same thing happened with Vita & PS4, for the first year or two PSP & PS3 versions were selling just as much or better.

19 months is more than enough time to see a trend establishing.  Many of the games released on the PS4 and PSV simultaneously never appeared on Nintendo consoles... so that, along with having no Playstation portable replacement plus the PS4 winding down means that, to me, we should be seeing the Switch start expanding this market (3rd party titles, Switch has the most active userbase and its sales projections are greater than the Vita and PS4) and its just not happening.



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zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

Talking about active userbase only reinforces the point that Switch games should outsell PS4 games ;). Of course multiplatforms will take a long time to transition and will possibly never transition. Even in the US when Wii/360 had a massive userbase advantage over PS3, many japanese games sold better on PS3. Userbase and demographics are just too different for PS4 and Switch, it is unlikely that the demographics will change without a big push from either publishers or manufacturers. For example we saw a positive climb with the 360 and pandering to the japanese audience but then a grand collapse when they did the opposite with the XB1.

Not really, my point was simply that in 2014/2015 it wasnt really a 10m vs 1-2m situation like you alluded to.

You're right that the demographics may never move over to Switch but all I'm saying is that it has been a trend that sales of multiplatform titles take awhile to move to newer systems.

For the first couple years of Vita, many mulitplat titles sold as much or more on PSP/PS3.

For the first couple years of PS4, many multiplat titles sold as much or more on PS3/Vita.

So far for NSW, many multiplat titles have sold as much or more on Vita/PS4.

For the first couple years of PS5, many multiplat titles will likely sell as much or more on PS4/NSW.

 

That was my whole point when responding to the person who said, "By this point in the Switch's lifecycle, I would expect a significant disparity between it and the PS4 when it comes to third party titles releasing on the same day".

I refute that due to userbase argument. First couple years for both Vita and PS4 were rather poor compared to the massive userbase of PSP/PS3, SW multiplat sales were to be expected low. NSW doesn't have that excuse. To put it another way PS4 and Vita had very little chance to have high selling games as demonstrated by the time they got their first million seller years after release. NSW got a million seller within a year or 2 and is on par with the other consoles already, so the multiplat games should be selling much better. Though his post may be hyperbole, there still is significant advantage to PS4 games > Swtich games for same day releases.

"For the first couple years of PS5, many multiplat titles will likely sell as much or more on PS4/NSW." will remain true unless PS5 has massive sales out of the gate like the NSW imo.




I refute that due to userbase argument. First couple years for both Vita and PS4 were rather poor compared to the massive userbase of PSP/PS3, SW multiplat sales were to be expected low. NSW doesn't have that excuse. To put it another way PS4 and Vita had very little chance to have high selling games as demonstrated by the time they got their first million seller years after release. NSW got a million seller within a year or 2 and is on par with the other consoles already, so the multiplat games should be selling much better. Though his post may be hyperbole, there still is significant advantage to PS4 games > Swtich games for same day releases.

"For the first couple years of PS5, many multiplat titles will likely sell as much or more on PS4/NSW." will remain true unless PS5 has massive sales out of the gate like the NSW imo.

Like you said earlier demographics are more important than install base. The install base doesnt matter if the audience for those games is not on the system yet.

The big 1st party games on Switch along with rapidly decreasing/non-existant major 1st party titles on 3DS/Wii U has ensured that fans of those franchises are moving over rather quickly.

The same cannot be said when it comes to 3rd party titles because in most cases they are either late ports or the franchises audience is still active on other platforms (like early Vita/PS4 3rd party titles) and have little reason to move over if they aren't also big fans of Nintendo franchises.

3rd parties need to build an audience for their multiplatform titles on Switch just like they had to for Vita & PS4.



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Wow, people still play Mario Party

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Kai_Mao said:
PwerlvlAmy said:
Good Switch numbers. Really ouch PS4 numbers. I feel sad to see Astro Bot so far down in the chart. Astro Bot deserves more love :(

How is PSVR doing in Japan?

We got week 1 sales for PS VR and then I don't believe any sales tracker released any updates on it.



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zorg1000 said:

I refute that due to userbase argument. First couple years for both Vita and PS4 were rather poor compared to the massive userbase of PSP/PS3, SW multiplat sales were to be expected low. NSW doesn't have that excuse. To put it another way PS4 and Vita had very little chance to have high selling games as demonstrated by the time they got their first million seller years after release. NSW got a million seller within a year or 2 and is on par with the other consoles already, so the multiplat games should be selling much better. Though his post may be hyperbole, there still is significant advantage to PS4 games > Swtich games for same day releases.

"For the first couple years of PS5, many multiplat titles will likely sell as much or more on PS4/NSW." will remain true unless PS5 has massive sales out of the gate like the NSW imo.

Like you said earlier demographics are more important than install base. The install base doesnt matter if the audience for those games is not on the system yet.

The big 1st party games on Switch along with rapidly decreasing/non-existant major 1st party titles on 3DS/Wii U has ensured that fans of those franchises are moving over rather quickly.

The same cannot be said when it comes to 3rd party titles because in most cases they are either late ports or the franchises audience is still active on other platforms (like early Vita/PS4 3rd party titles) and have little reason to move over if they aren't also big fans of Nintendo franchises.

3rd parties need to build an audience for their multiplatform titles on Switch just like they had to for Vita & PS4.

I wonder what will it take for the audience buy these types of third party games on Switch..

Hardware sales are expected to be crazy with Pokemon and Smash coming up this year and 2019 is showing great signs of potential.

If Octopath Traveler can find success (albeit as an exclusive) along with games like Disgaea 5 Complete, Super Bomberman R, Mario + Rabbids, Ultra SF II, Bethesda games, along with many indies, etc., I don't see why others cannot find success.



Ps4 predictions next week? I'll go with 30k

16k this week. Hard to know if it's good or bad. While yes it means prople are hyped by the price drop and have held off to next week is it worrying more didn't hold? Does it suggest a lot just don't care for the pro cut. Find out next Wednesday!



Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

Anybody who has payed attention to Japanese sales for the last few years knows that it takes awhile for 3rd party sales to transition from 1 platform to the next.

The exact same thing happened with Vita & PS4, for the first year or two PSP & PS3 versions were selling just as much or better.

Big difference though is that PS4 had terrible HW sales and install base, so of course the games on 10m PS3 and 5m Vita sold more than PS4. The Switch on the other hand nearly equals PS4 install base.

Yep, this is a riddle to me. Japan is without the question which is best for Switch hardware sales. Still, japanese 3rd-party games sell mediocre there. Often these same games do sell better than on PS4 in the West. So, what happens there? Is Switch perceived different in Japan than the rest of the world? Which leads in the West to good sales of 3rd-party games, including japanese ones, but have different effects in Japan, although good hardware sales?



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Kerotan said:
Ps4 predictions next week? I'll go with 30k

16k this week. Hard to know if it's good or bad. While yes it means prople are hyped by the price drop and have held off to next week is it worrying more didn't hold? Does it suggest a lot just don't care for the pro cut. Find out next Wednesday!

I'm thinking more like 25K. And as you speculate yourself, I dont think the pricecut will have much of an effect but rather CoD blackout. Pre-orders for it are really really great. 

I believe last years CoD had a 4K increase on the PS4. It will be an interesting week no less



Mnementh said:
Farsala said:

Big difference though is that PS4 had terrible HW sales and install base, so of course the games on 10m PS3 and 5m Vita sold more than PS4. The Switch on the other hand nearly equals PS4 install base.

Yep, this is a riddle to me. Japan is without the question which is best for Switch hardware sales. Still, japanese 3rd-party games sell mediocre there. Often these same games do sell better than on PS4 in the West. So, what happens there? Is Switch perceived different in Japan than the rest of the world? Which leads in the West to good sales of 3rd-party games, including japanese ones, but have different effects in Japan, although good hardware sales?

You might begin by asking what led to the erosion of PlayStation hardware sales in Japan. "Home consoles aren't as popular as handhelds" doesn't cut it for an answer, because the Vita sold worse than the PS4. The amount and pedigree of third party software that PS consoles receive isn't an answer either, because it remained high on both accounts.

What makes Japan different is a shift in demographics. The country has had declining birth rates for about two decades. But unlike the other developed video game markets in the world, Japan closes itself off from immigration. Declining birth rates are the norm in developed countries, but immigration softens or offsets it, because immigrants tend to have more children. What has been happening in Japan is that children accounted for an ever smaller percentage of the total population which remained largely unchanged. Lower birth rates first mean fewer children, then it means fewer teenagers.

The PlayStation business largely revolves around stealing customers from Nintendo. Nintendo has high popularity among kids, Sony positions itself as the cooler brand and lures teenagers, the age group that cares the most about image, to PlayStation. The shift in demographics is the reason for the decline of PlayStation in Japan. Console manufacturers have to appeal to the growing percentage of adults in order to get a console to the same heights as in the past (most of the popular consoles in Japanese video game history have sold ~20m lifetime). Nintendo is able to withstand the shift in demographics because their own games cover a very wide age bracket.

When it comes to PlayStation, Sony's first party is barely making an effort while most third parties decided to double down on software that is targeted at teenagers and young adults (namely otakus, the guys who don't have or get girlfriends) in order to squeeze out more money from individual customers. That's why it became a running joke that Vita games plaster tits on their covers. It's not exclusively about tits though; games can very well be tailored to the PlayStation demographics without being oversexualized.

Because there are many third party games that are PlayStation first, we'll continue to see individual titles with large discrepancies in sales between PS4 and Switch. But we also see games where sales are in line with total hardware sales. The lack of a PlayStation handheld in the market doesn't mean that Vita owners will migrate to Switch; it's more likely that they'll move to PS4, if they haven't already. Given that Switch sells at a much faster pace than any recent PlayStation console, it should be clear that Switch owners do not have the same demographic breakdown as a PS console and as such anything that could be called PS-centric third party software isn't going to light up the Switch software charts, because the main demographic for that kind of software is still firmly on PS.



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