Nice! I'll be grabbing it on or around Black Friday, since i won't have time to play really in depth games, until the fall/winter time.

I predicted 1.8m LTD which was super low, but I was predicting in the high range. What was your initial FW prediction, because none of the 3 posts you linked had that in there (and this is the post that I remember from you). The second post has moved goalposts for Japanese sales, but not your OG prediction.

Despite all of that, I wouldn't say that 1.8m would have been a failure. I, like many others, was predicting that any loss of native sales would have been more than made up in other regions (which of course was correct as it sold more in the West than in Japan). Very few people were honestly thinking it would have been as successful as it is. Good for Capcom as their gamble on some stylistic changes enlarged their audience.

ETA: I found the original post you made at 2.5-3m lifetime, WW. Not that my WW prediction was great either, but it was certainly more than that.

As I wrote in that thread and here my initial prediction was rubbish and I dropped it before release (as you can see, my more positive posts were some time later). I gave no new prediction, as I did not know what it would be like. I only recognized that everything below 2M in Japan was super-negative and too low. And I don't want to give you a too hard time about a prediction that turned out to be removed from the truth, because that's what happens with predictions. But back then, PS fans were very conservative about predicting MH success especially in Japan, but now it just are the Nintendo fans that spread negativity. This revisionist history makes me upset.

It was a small minority, no different than the few people who thought the series would fail in the transition from PSP to 3DS.

If anything we now have proof that the fanbase follows the game, not the hardware.

Games can share similar aspects while not being clones of one another, MHW is not a clone at all.

That's the disconnect from here to now though. Most people didn't believe that they being super negative with predictions like 1.5-2m in Japan and 4m LT. While laughable now, that was a much more optimistic prediction compared to what a lot of people were throwing out there.

It's not revisionist history, but moved goalposts.

The revisionist part is that the Nintendo-fans were the negative one (or only them).

I understand that this seemed right at the time, as you have seen I fell into that trap too. Until I realized that Capcom never would've greenlight such an expensive project if they had expectations that low. And nobody can explain to me, they were fine with it, because of an uncertain growth in the west. No, I'm pretty sure (and was then), that Capcom calculated with at least 2M in Japan. I wasn't sure though, if they had it right, Capcom does blunders from time to time. That's why I abstained from predictions after I dropped my initial ones.

@chazore
It works both ways. Payday 2 devs prioritise pc big time over ps4. So do planetside 2 devs. I didn't give those games even a second thought when they were available. Just got them and had fun.

I remember when mhw launched you were giving it socks pretending you'd probably never buy it saying this game and that has your attention in the genre now. I knew you'd buy it eventually like you just said though.

The reality is over 10m people have now supported the capgods in just over 6m. Millions more will in future whether its at full price or cheap on sale like yourself. There will be many on ps4 and xb1 getting it super cheap on sale so it won't just be yourself. And considering it's out longer on those platforms they'll probably get those sales quicker. I'm surprised you're not refusing to buy it cheap on sale for that reason too.

Thank you.

One question, are X/Generations games mainline 4th generation MH? I had the impression that those games weren't really mainline and now when I go to Wikipedia I see them there categorised as spin-offs. Can any MH expert elaborate on that? 

Its technically a spinoff but the core gameplay is pretty similar (some minor changes).

So its ~8.3 million for MH4 & ~6.5 million for MHX which could surpass 7 million with the western release on Switch later this month.