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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 21): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - May 21-27, 2018

zorg1000 on 30 May 2018
KilleyMc said:
Dreadful numbers all over the charts. Now that the 3DS is out of the picture, between the PS4 lack of appeal in Japan and the lack of new games to push the Switch, this has the excitement of a snail race. At least next week BotW Switch will hit a million units sold at retail, which is great, and even if it's far less remarkable the Switch itself will pass the 1 million mark on YTD.

Ya but on the bright side, Switch having consistently decent sales (not great, not poor) in the first half of the year without a whole lot of big software is a good sign that it has alot of potential to have great sales in the 2nd half with big hitters like Yokai, Smash & Pokemon coming.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Megiddo on 30 May 2018

Assuming that the Switch sells the same numbers in November-December as last year (about 1.3 million) the Switch will need an average weekly sales of 77,802 from June to October to hit 4 million sold in Japan in 2018. That's only going to keep going higher and higher as more weeks selling 35-40k roll by.



zorg1000 on 30 May 2018
Megiddo said:
Assuming that the Switch sells the same numbers in November-December as last year (about 1.3 million) the Switch will need an average weekly sales of 77,802 from June to October to hit 4 million sold in Japan in 2018. That's only going to keep going higher and higher as more weeks selling 35-40k roll by.

Well the silly thing is assuming Nov/Dec sales will be the same as last year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

p0isonparadise on 30 May 2018
Eagle367 said:
CosmicSex said:

I don't feel attacked.  I know exactly how I feel thank you very much.  I feel like you guys are being hilarious and overt in your dismissal of the PS4.  If it is doing 17k a week it is more than a little life left.  I'm sure that Swith will do great with Smash and Pokemon but I still don't think it can catch the PS4 this year. 

You have no idea. Four things make the Japanese go crazy insane: 

Dragon quest

Monster Hunter

Splatoon

Pokémonand Pokémon by far is the biggest one of them all.

Which reminds me when is dragon quest 11 for switch coming? Also ps4 is in it's golden years where it sells the most. Just look at the rest of the world. It's selling better than ever everywhere else. I'm Al; fairness it's unfair to compare a new console to one in the prime of it's life. But people do it. I get why switch sells more in Japan as PS4 does in eurEur but there's really no harm in comparing them. It's what this site is about. And it's fun

You're forgetting Animal Crossing. New Leaf has sold more than any Pokemon. Monster Hunter, or Dragon Quest game in the 8th gen. 



Megiddo on 30 May 2018
zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:
Assuming that the Switch sells the same numbers in November-December as last year (about 1.3 million) the Switch will need an average weekly sales of 77,802 from June to October to hit 4 million sold in Japan in 2018. That's only going to keep going higher and higher as more weeks selling 35-40k roll by.

Well the silly thing is assuming Nov/Dec sales will be the same as last year.

Why do you think that? Will there be a price drop or a revision?



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zorg1000 on 30 May 2018
Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:

Well the silly thing is assuming Nov/Dec sales will be the same as last year.

Why do you think that? Will there be a price drop or a revision?

Games and possibly bundles, what makes you think sales will be flat?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

EricFabian on 30 May 2018
Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:

Well the silly thing is assuming Nov/Dec sales will be the same as last year.

Why do you think that? Will there be a price drop or a revision?

Smash and Pokemon



Click HERE and be happy 

Megiddo on 30 May 2018
EricFabian said:
Megiddo said:

Why do you think that? Will there be a price drop or a revision?

Smash and Pokemon

If Pokemon was a traditional core RPG, sure I'd agree with you on that. Smash is strong but last holiday period had Mario Odyssey as well which was strong.

@zorg1000 I believe the still high pricetag of $300 will stop it from any big increase over last year's holiday sales.



Mnementh on 30 May 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Mnementh said:

Even with a few low-key new releases the PS4 stays at 17K. I think we are looking at the baseline.

Dark Souls sold originally 282K first week in Japan according to VGC-numbers. That's a fourth. If that is consistent across regions, we look at 500K worldwide for the PS4. It might be problematic to extrapolate that way though. as Xbox has relevance outside Japan and sells this too.

EDIT: Vita has halfed sales against last year, 3DS even sells only a third. They are both on their way out of the market.

Uh, PS4 had several new games so I dont think that we could call this baseline, without those releases PS4 would probably had below 15k sales, even with those releases PS4 only had 1.5k better sales compared to last week. From next week PS4 will probably be below 15k and baseline will start moving around 10k in next weeks.

PS4 has pretty much the same sales as last week (542 units more according to MC, I don't know where you see 1.5K). I see no effect. I don't believe it'll drop below 15K, maybe below 16K.



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Mnementh on 30 May 2018
CosmicSex said:
Mar1217 said:

Why the need to feel attacked ?

And also, with the good stuff coming this summer + SSB/Pokémon Let's Go/FE, etc ... I definitely think it can. Nintendo always has the majority of their sales during the Holiday season, I can't fanthom why people keep forgetting this ...

I don't feel attacked.  I know exactly how I feel thank you very much.  I feel like you guys are being hilarious and overt in your dismissal of the PS4.  If it is doing 17k a week it is more than a little life left.  I'm sure that Swith will do great with Smash and Pokemon but I still don't think it can catch the PS4 this year. 

Sure is a little life left. PS4 is currently at peak sales time (obviously in summer slower than in the holidays). I suspect the actual peak was last year, but it is still close. Switch is a new console, it'll grow further.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]