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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won April NPD ( PS4 > NSW > XBO)

TheBlackNaruto on 18 May 2018

Great sales for the PS4! Not bad for Switch and XB1!



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Train wreck on 18 May 2018
Megiddo said:
So yeah, per the same thread. Labo missed retailer expectations by a wide margin. That's not good.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/april-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-may-15th.40837/page-11#post-8065382

Aquamarine is saying “Poor Labo” as well but we can’t judge their sales until at least a (insert random children’s holiday, birthday or Christmas)



Megiddo on 18 May 2018

Oh right, my mistake. Retailers will be so happy to have a big ol' stock of Labo for the holidays.



thismeintiel on 18 May 2018
zorg1000 said:

 

thismeintiel said:

Source? I couldn't find one. Even if true, you're comparing a $399 console VS a $299 console.

The April 2015 NPD thread.

Who cares? We are also comparing a 1.8tflop, 8gb RAM, 500gb HDD console with a bunch of multimedia functions (dvd/blu-ray, streaming apps) vs a console with a fraction the power, storage & non-gaming features.

Both are/were priced appropriately.

Okay, couldn't find that thread.  A lot of people care about $100.  If the Switch was $100 more, but worth it for the specs you get, you can guarantee that the sales would still be much lower.

Miyamotoo said:
thismeintiel said:

 

714K VS 171K for 2nd April.  Granted, Mario Kart Wii launched that month. But, no one honestly thinks that if a new Mario Kart launched this month it would equal those sales. At least I hope no one. So, not the Wii. 

But going buy that point it's impossible that PS4 will sell better than Wii also!? :)

Best selling PS4 April before this one was 206k and in its second one sold basically same like PS4, 175k.

Except that the PS4 is a Playstation.  They have different sales trajectories.  Nintendo normally is more frontloaded, while the Playstation has longer legs.

Nintendo

System % of sales first 3 years % of sales remaining years
N64 73.2% 26.8%
GBA 59.2% 40.8%
GC 71.2% 28.8%
DS 42.1% 57.9%
Wii 66.4% 33.6%
3DS 57.8% (projected 75M) 42.2% (projected 75M)
Wii U 92.9% 7.1%

Sony

System % of sales first 3 years % of sales remaining years
PS1 44.9% 55.1%
PS2 41.9% 58.1%
PSP 53% 47%
PS3 41.2% 58.8%
PSV 62.5% 37.5%

So, the average for Sony is 48.7% for the first 3 years, while it is 66.1% for Nintendo.  Personally, I think Nintendo will sell ~18M, more likely.  Maybe 19M-20M next fiscal year, when it hits $199.  But, then I think we are going to see that more frontloaded behavior kick in and see it hit ~85M in the end.  And using PS's average, PS4 should hit ~120M.  ~135M if we use just the home console average.

kirby007 said:

Damn you, Switch and XBO for underperforming my expectations!

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 18 May 2018

 

Mnementh on 18 May 2018
Intrinsic said:
quickrick said:

Not really. imagine if switch did 300k this month, people out look on 20 million would be way more likely wouldn't you agree? each month is a indicator where the market is going. plus like another person pointed out this is the 4th month of the year and we are looking at a trend. honestly labo could have been a difference  maker, it could have been a huge hit nobody really knew till now with such a unique product from nintendo.

I don't think you get how these shipment estimate things work.

Nintendo says they are gonna ship 20M for the fiscal years starting apr 1st 2018 and ending march 31st 2019. That does not mean they plan on selling 20M consoles. They could even very well expect to sell 17.5M consoles and have around 2.5M in the channels then ship very little units in the first quater of the start of the next fiscal year. 

That would be relevant, if the console would be launching this fiscal year. As it stands, on April 1st 2018 a lot of Switches already were in the channels. So for your analysis to be true, there wouldn't only 2.5M consoles in channels, it needs to be 2.5M MORE than it was at april 1st 2018. That is highly unlikely. If Switch sells 33% more (it shipped 15M in fiscal year 2017), we could expect around 33% more in channel, but not much more. So if they ship 20M this fiscal year, they should sell at least 19M.



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PortisheadBiscuit on 18 May 2018
thismeintiel said:
zorg1000 said:

 

The April 2015 NPD thread.

Who cares? We are also comparing a 1.8tflop, 8gb RAM, 500gb HDD console with a bunch of multimedia functions (dvd/blu-ray, streaming apps) vs a console with a fraction the power, storage & non-gaming features.

Both are/were priced appropriately.

Okay, couldn't find that thread.  A lot of people care about $100.  If the Switch was $100 more, but worth it for the specs you get, you can guarantee that the sales would still be much lower.

Miyamotoo said:

But going buy that point it's impossible that PS4 will sell better than Wii also!? :)

Best selling PS4 April before this one was 206k and in its second one sold basically same like PS4, 175k.

Except that the PS4 is a Playstation.  They have different sales trajectories.  Nintendo normally is more frontloaded, while the Playstation has longer legs.

Nintendo

System % of sales first 3 years % of sales remaining years
N64 73.2% 26.8%
GBA 59.2% 40.8%
GC 71.2% 28.8%
DS 42.1% 57.9%
Wii 66.4% 33.6%
3DS 57.8% (projected 75M) 42.2% (projected 75M)
Wii U 92.9% 7.1%

Sony

System % of sales first 3 years % of sales remaining years
PS1 44.9% 55.1%
PS2 41.9% 58.1%
PSP 53% 47%
PS3 41.2% 58.8%
PSV 62.5% 37.5%

So, the average for Sony is 48.7% for the first 3 years, while it is 66.1% for Nintendo.  Personally, I think Nintendo will sell ~18M, more likely.  Maybe 19M-20M next fiscal year, when it hits $199.  But, then I think we are going to see that more frontloaded behavior kick in and see it hit ~85M in the end.  And using PS's average, PS4 should hit ~120M.  ~135M if we use just the home console average.

kirby007 said:

Damn you, Switch and XBO for underperforming my expectations!

Sony also supports their home consoles longer than Nintendo historically. 



CosmicSex on 18 May 2018
Train wreck said:
Megiddo said:
So yeah, per the same thread. Labo missed retailer expectations by a wide margin. That's not good.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/april-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-may-15th.40837/page-11#post-8065382

Aquamarine is saying “Poor Labo” as well but we can’t judge their sales until at least a (insert random children’s holiday, birthday or Christmas)

The mistake comes from people not understanding the demo.  Expecting adults, with the purchasing power mind you, to be taken by this is a critical thinking issue for some.  LABO may not have sold 'well' but that is only in the context that it could compete in a market dominated by adults.  I continue to believe that it did well for what it was.  



Qwark on 18 May 2018

Switch shortages confirmed? It was going to outsell  or at least outship the PS4 if I remember correctly.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

quickrick on 18 May 2018
Intrinsic said:
quickrick said:

Not really. imagine if switch did 300k this month, people out look on 20 million would be way more likely wouldn't you agree? each month is a indicator where the market is going. plus like another person pointed out this is the 4th month of the year and we are looking at a trend. honestly labo could have been a difference  maker, it could have been a huge hit nobody really knew till now with such a unique product from nintendo.

I don't think you get how these shipment estimate things work.

Nintendo says they are gonna ship 20M for the fiscal years starting apr 1st 2018 and ending march 31st 2019. That does not mean they plan on selling 20M consoles. They could even very well expect to sell 17.5M consoles and have around 2.5M in the channels then ship very little units in the first quater of the start of the next fiscal year. 

JRPGfan said:

Holy crap it works :) well done Symbios.

Now we just need it to work about 5 more times in say over 7 NPDs then we can really say it works. Good start though.

I don't see  sell through at 17.5 million as possible. if they sell 17.5 million, 2.5 million isn't all that much. i think sell through will be around 14 million. 



kurasakiichimaruALT on 18 May 2018
Megiddo said:
Oh right, my mistake. Retailers will be so happy to have a big ol' stock of Labo for the holidays.

Yeah, I don't think it'll be great. The Labo box is almost as big as PS4 box that will need more space in retail stores by november.



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